Cronulla – NSW 2015

LIB 24.8%

Incumbent MP
Mark Speakman, since 2011.

Geography
Southern Sydney. Cronulla covers parts of Sutherland Shire, including the suburbs of Burraneer, Caringbah, Cronulla, Grays Point, Gymea Bay, Kurnell, Lilli Pilli, Port Hacking, Woolooware and Yowie Bay.

Map of Cronulla's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Cronulla’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Cronulla and the neighbouring seat of Miranda were realigned from north-south to east-west. Cronulla lost Sylvania Waters and Taren Point to Miranda, in exchange for Grays Point and Gymea Bay. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 25.5% to 24.8%.

History
The district of Cronulla has existed since 1959. In that time, it has been won by the Liberal Party at all but two elections.

Cronulla was first won in 1959 by Liberal MP Ian Griffith. He had won the seat of Sutherland in 1956, and moved to the new seat of Cronulla after the redistribution shifted Sutherland into Labor areas.

Griffith served as a minister from 1972 to 1975, and again for the final few months of the Coalition government in 1976. Griffith lost Liberal preselection in 1978 and retired.

The ALP’s Michael Egan won Cronulla in 1978. He was re-elected in 1981, but lost in 1984. Egan was elected to the Legislative Council in 1986. He became Treasurer when the ALP won power in 1995, serving in the role until his retirement in 2005.

Egan was defeated in 1984 by Liberal candidate Malcolm Kerr. Kerr was re-elected in 1988, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007.

In 2011, Kerr retired and was succeeded by Mark Speakman.

Candidates

Assessment
Cronulla is a safe Liberal seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Mark Speakman Liberal 29,845 66.1 +9.4 65.2
Stefanie Jones Labor 8,653 19.2 -6.9 19.5
Josh Peacock Greens 3,681 8.1 +1.3 8.7
Beth Smith Christian Democrats 1,571 3.5 -1.1 3.3
Patricia Poulos Independent 1,424 3.2 +3.2 2.4
Others 1.0

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Mark Speakman Liberal 31,382 75.5 +8.1 74.8
Stefanie Jones Labor 10,157 24.5 -8.1 25.2
Polling places in Cronulla at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in blue, East in green, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Cronulla at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in blue, East in green, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Cronulla have been split into three parts: central, east or west.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote (over Labor) ranged from 72.7% in the east to 77.2% in the centre.

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Central 77.2 7.4 13,732 28.8
East 72.7 9.7 11,893 25.0
West 75.2 8.6 8,597 18.1
Other votes 74.2 9.2 13,401 28.1
Two-party-preferred votes in Cronulla at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Cronulla at the 2011 NSW state election.

2 COMMENTS

  1. @ Anton Kreitzer Mark Speakman is a very hard working local member. I’m obviously not certain but maybe a swing of around 4-5% but highly likely to be in between the 07 margin of Kerr and now.

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