Nepean by-election, 2026

Cause of by-election
Sitting Liberal MP Sam Groth announced he would resign from parliament on 4 February 2026, after previously flagging his intention to retire at the November general election in late 2025, and then stepping down as the party’s deputy leader in January 2026.

Margin – LIB 6.4%

Incumbent MP
Sam Groth, since 2022.

Geography
Mornington Peninsula. Nepean covers the southernmost part of Mornington Peninsula, including Point Nepean.

History
Nepean was created in 2002, replacing the abolished seat of Dromana, which had been won by the Liberal Party at all but one election since its creation in 1967.

Dromana was won in 1996 by Martin Dixon. He was re-elected in 1999. In 2002 he ran for Nepean, and held the seat until his retirement in 2018.

Labor candidate Chris Brayne won Nepean in 2018 after a large 8.5% swing.

Brayne lost in 2022 to Liberal candidate Sam Groth, who gained a 7.1% swing after preferences.

Candidates

Assessment
On a two-party-preferred basis, this seat would probably be safe for the Liberal Party. This is moot in the absence of a Labor candidate. It will be interesting to see how One Nation performs at a time when national polls have them polling more strongly than ever before. Both One Nation and Tracee Hutchison could pose threats to part of the Liberal support base.

2022 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Sam Groth Liberal 19,614 48.1 +4.0
Chris Brayne Labor 13,308 32.6 -5.3
Esther Gleixner Greens 3,576 8.8 -2.2
Hank Leine Freedom Party 980 2.4 +2.4
Pamela Engelander Animal Justice 720 1.8 +1.8
Janny Dijkman Family First 638 1.6 +1.6
Jay Miller Companions and Pets 526 1.3 +1.3
Elizabeth Woolcock Independent 495 1.2 +1.2
Charelle Ainslie Independent 449 1.1 +1.1
Cynthia Skruzny Democratic Labour 369 0.9 +0.9
Steve Anger Independent 91 0.2 +0.2
Informal 2,753 6.3

2022 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Sam Groth Liberal 22,986 56.4 +7.1
Chris Brayne Labor 17,780 43.6 -7.1

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: east, south and west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 51.4% in the east and 57.2% in the west. Labor won 51.1% in the south. The Liberal Party also won large majorities on the special votes.

Voter group LIB 2PP Total votes % of votes
East 51.4 4,737 11.6
West 57.2 3,247 7.9
South 48.9 1,990 4.9
Pre-poll 56.8 24,056 58.8
Other votes 61.8 6,902 16.9

Election results in Nepean at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

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51 COMMENTS

  1. @Nimalan: I agree that One Nation won’t poll well in Clyde that is fast-growing and increasingly CALD, but it won’t poll well in the Bass Coast Shire part either. Just like Nepean, the population of the Bass Coast Shire is dominated by older, asset-rich voters and seachangers seeking lifestyle change. The Nepean by-election result show One Nation won’t poll well among these types of voters. One Nation will poll best in coastal parts of the City of Casey and Shire of Cardinia, where the Coalition polled best. I expect One Nation will poll in the low 20s, the same level as Nepean recorded in the by-election.

    With a combined Coalition vote of 43.4% in 2022 and ONP primary vote in the low 20s at best in 2026, the Liberal Party is not going to drop to third in Bass to enable One Nation to win. I expect this seat to remain a Liberal vs Labor contest. @Maxim said on the Hastings thread that some even suggested that Labor may even drop out of the 2CP here, although I don’t think that will happen because it will require Labor primary vote to drop well below 20%, an almost halving of Labor primary vote. Labor’s primary vote needs to be far behind that of One Nation’s for Labor to drop out of the 2CP, otherwise Greens preferences will lift Labor pass One Nation during the distribution of preferences.

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