The declining major party vote
I've been focused recently on the longer historical trends which play out beyond the individual election cycle, or even beyond a single decade of...
Expanding the time frame on seat swings
In yesterday's post I explained my dataset of election results from 2004-2019 adjusted for 2022 boundaries. In today's post I use that data to...
Adjusting historic election results for boundary changes
If you've been reading my federal election guide, you would have noticed a new feature: a chart showing the two-party-preferred vote in that seat...
Federal candidate update
With the election campaign now underway, I've done another update of my candidate list, which I posted about in February. You can view the...
Podcast #69: Labor and the Greens in the federal election
Ben is joined by Glenn Kefford from Griffith University and Rob Manwaring from Flinders University to discuss the relationship between Labor and the Greens...
Election to be called – open thread
It appears that the prime minister, Scott Morrison, is on his way to visit the governor-general today to call the Australian federal election, apparently...
Podcast #68: Polling and the federal election
Ben is joined by Peter Lewis from the Essential Poll to talk about the current state of polling in the lead up to the...
Federal election guide unlocked
It looks likely that the federal election will be called this coming weekend, for the 14th or 21st of May.
With that, I've now unlocked...
PNG creates new electorates
Papua New Guinea's parliament has recently passed the first successfully redistribution in the nation since 1977. The decision will see seven new seats created...
Don’t let single-member electorates off the hook
There's been a lot of discussion over the last few days about the Labor preselection for my local federal seat of Parramatta, where sitting...