Holland Park – Brisbane 2024

Interesting pointing out some of the big swings to the Greens in divisions like Forest Lake and Moorooka. I think that this is where the Greens are starting to cut through with their recent emphasis on the issue of housing and renting. There are many interrelated factors for why this would benefit Forest Lake and Moorooka.

The first I would mention is the corridor out to Forest Lake is one of the only areas within the bounds of the Brisbane LGA where new housing stock has come online within the last decade. Along this corridor is an abundance of young families. Young adults with young children fit obviously within the 18 – 34 age cohorts that has seen a huge rise in Greens support over the short to medium term. The polling going into the BCC election had cross tabs indicating that the Greens were the number 1 party by support for the 18 – 34 age cohort. Suburbs like Doolandella, Pallara within Forest Lake have a median age matching Brisbane’s very young inner-city. The age composition is obviously a bit different though. Brisbane’s inner-city is young because of the abundance of young adults. Queensland state divisions like South Brisbane come to mind. South Brisbane ranks in the top divisions for people aged 20 – 24 while simultaneously lowest for people aged 0 – 4. Whereas the outer growth corridor is young because of the abundance of 0 – 12 year olds skewing the population much lower. Regardless, the voting-eligible population in these outer suburban growth fringes still are very young.

I would make a further comment here that it seems that the Greens are now growing their base beyond their educated young professionals and students with no children. And that they seem to be more attractive to a broader cross section of the 18 – 34 cohort than they might have been 10 years ago.

Now with renting and housing. The ongoing rental & housing crisis is perhaps displacing a lot of young adults including students and professionals, typically attracted to the Greens, who might have otherwise been closer to Brisbane’s inner-ring, further out into the affordable outer rings of the LGA and outside of the LGA. Forest Lake division has a lot of the only new dwelling stock available within the bounds of the Brisbane LGA (a very established LGA compared to its neighbours Logan, Ipswich and Moreton Bay). These new dwellings have been at an accessible price point for a lot of first home-buyers in the LGA. Again I am invoking Pallara and Doolandella. Suburbs like Inala have some of the most cheapest rental stock available within the bounds of Brisbane LGA.

Moorooka ward is similar in that it also has some of the cheapest rental stock available. Particularly suburbs like Rocklea. This is largely due to the vulnerability of the Oxley Creek corridor to flooding and the aftermath of the 2022 Brisbane Floods.

Looking back at some booth data for the Federal Election, I think the Greens also did surprisingly well in new growth corridors like Yarrabilba (in Wright). Again, this is another corridor where young adults have perhaps been pushed out to. This might be a trend that unfolds further in the Queensland State Election. I will be watching divisions encompassing the growth fringes like Coomera, Logan, Jordan, Bundamba and Ipswich to observe swings in the Greens vote.

Finally. Underrated reason why the Greens probably did very well in Forest Lake: It really pays to have the last name of Nguyen in and around Richlands and Inala. If the Forest Lake ward was oriented any differently and also included Darra and Oxley (from Jamboree), I think it would have paid off for the Greens. Great local candidate selection on their part. I think the Greens should be fielding Vi Nyugen again for the overlapping state division of Inala now that Inala appears to be more vulnerable. In the Inala By-Election (conducted on the same night), Independent Linh Nguyen attracted 9.3% of the vote. Inala might now behave like the division of Fowler, multi-culturally diverse, typically Labor heartland but vulnerable to community candidates from diverse backgrounds.

@Harry a couple of comments firstly we can debate about the merits of OPV but under current system yes, the left vote splits but the Greens can’t be blamed for taking votes off Labour if voters feel that they are not offering a true left-wing alternative to the LNP. Your comments apply to the suburbs but in inner city areas Labour is the minor party, so its Labour the is in theory playing the role of “spoiler.” Also, a stated goal of the greens is to replace Labour as the main “left wing” force in Australia, so this election is absolutely a success in that regard even if they didn’t beat Labour in overall vote count. The fact that they are pulling votes from them show progress on that front.

If the Greens could’ve found another 3%, disciplined ALP preferences would’ve got Jonno home.
The Wards didn’t matter too much, but they didn’t do too bad.

Harry, please explain to us what situation we are apparently seeing over and over again. I see a growing Greens vote and a second ward gained. You’re trying to have your cake and eat it too by claiming wards matter rather than votes, but also downplaying the gain of Paddington ward (which the ABC have called for the Greens) just because it’s a close contest.

Also, it’s not the Greens’ fault that previous Labor voters decided they liked the Greens message more than Labor’s. It’s up to Labor to keep those voters in their tent while also providing an appealing message to previous LNP voters. Why couldn’t Labor win over previous LNP voters, to (at minimum) offset any losses to the Greens?

And the LNP were ensured four more years in control of city hall the minute the state Labor government decided not to enforce CPV on councils. That more than anything is the reason more wards didn’t fall to both Labor and the Greens. If you’re concerned about a split vote between non-conservative parties, know that Labor had the chance to fix this problem and they didn’t take it.

I also wouldn’t make conclusions based on an official first preference count that’s less than half completed with the LNP and Greens numbers being close.

@SEQ Observer “The first I would mention is the corridor out to Forest Lake is one of the only areas within the bounds of the Brisbane LGA where new housing stock has come online within the last decade.”

Um… no.

Rochedale for one with massive new housing developments. ABS says 2,529 dwellings, but that was the 2021 Census and a large chunk of the growth has happened since then. Upper Mt Gravatt, where new housing stock has been created vertically. Algester, Calamvale and Parkinson grew at roughly the same time Forest Lake did but there’s been substantial developments of infill. Stretton still has a bit of room once the push for land kicks off future subdivisions.

On the northside you’ve had a lot of new development at Fitzgibbon and substantial subdivisions at Carseldine. To the east you’ve got Wakerley as a new development and quite a bit of block-splitting at Manly.

But the biggest growth is going to be in West End as a consequence of the Shaping SEQ planning strategy because of the changes to height limits. That’s a State Government push by the way. The Kurilpa height changes will go from 15-30 storeys to the air corridor height limit of 274 metres, or around 64 storeys. That’s an extra 10,000 dwellings in West End, or a greater increase than the current number of dwellings (8,199) in Forest Lake.

Mark Yore, SEQ Observer was referring to the corridor out to Forest Lake rather than Forest Lake itself, specifically Pallara and Doolandella. While there have been other residential developments in BCC, I’m not sure any of those areas have had the same level of affordable freestanding houses that Pallara and Doolandella have. That type of property attracts a certain type of individual, whereas West End apartments attract a different type. Rochedale and some other suburbs you’ve mentioned have higher average property prices and are less affordable to young people starting out.

Where I might not agree with SEQ Observer is whether any of this translates into substantially more Greens support. Pallara, Heathwood, and even a small part of the suburb of Forest Lake are actually in Calamvale ward, not Forest Lake, and that ward didn’t see a big spike in Greens support.

It’s also notable that Forest Lake East, possibly the closest Forest Lake ward booth to the new growth areas, wasn’t won by the Greens, but booths like Inala and Richlands East were. I think the Vietnamese connection was a bigger factor in whether the Greens won the booth.

Why is it that the younger populations of Pallara and Doolandella didn’t vote Greens in huge numbers? Well, I think the operative factor isn’t just age, it’s also home ownership. Those who rent are aghast at the repeated rent rises and often want a party that pledges to do something about that, whereas those who own are more concerned with whether their rates go up, and might choose a party that has shown it can keep rate rises low. And again, different sorts of people buy freestanding houses in outer suburbs versus inner suburb apartments.

Agree with all of the contributions, distinctions and adjustments you’ve incorporated here @Wilson. Going over the booths again, there was an observable difference in Greens support between booths surrounded primarily by dwellings occupied by owners, and dwellings occupied renters like you’ve indicated. However, I still think it was surprising that Greens were attracting more than 20% of the primary vote near here. This is why I was highlighting the corridors I observed with a similarly elated Greens votes. Abundant in affordable detached dwellings occupied by young families. My simple thesis here is that Greens are growing their vote amongst this demographic.

@Mark Yore, I mentioned that the corridor out near Forest Lake is ONE of the only areas within the bounds of the LGA… I think this point still stands. You’ve indicated about two or three other examples out in the other corners. My point here is that the Brisbane LGA is very established, especially comparative to Logan, Ipswich and Moreton Bay LGAs.

And yes, I am referring to new detached dwelling stock (free standing housing) which has also been at a price bracket accessible to the First Home Buyer. I think the Rochedale development had a broader mix of housing, including larger blocks. It for a variety of factors was less affordable to a large contingent of first home buyers.

And yep, well aware of the growth in the suburbs like West End. Mainly aided by the high density developments of new high rise and apartments. When looking at Greater Brisbane’s growth, you’ve got a donut looking map. The center experiencing huge growth, aided by the new high density dwelling stock. You’ve got a stagnant middle ring of established housing that came online over the previous decades. And then you’ve got the booming fringes, aided by the new sprawling, low density housing developments. Some of these fringes are within the bounds of the Brisbane LGA, but most are in Logan, Moreton Bay and Ipswich.

@Harry, you make good points and yes I agree, I was way too bullish on the Greens’ prospects. I didn’t properly account for all the factors you mentioned. You mention that the progressive vote is “split”, which is helping the LNP retain control of BCC under an OPV system – what would you propose to stop this from happening?