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If the Liberals want to return to government then they’ll need to win this, I personally reckon Labor is more vulnerable here and Hunter than in Bennelong. I could see a scenario where Labor hold onto Bennelong but lose here and Hunter.
@ SpaceFish
Paterson is a seat Libs won in 2013 (on current boundaries) so not a surprise if they win again. Hunter is not a seat that Coalition won in 2013 so if they dont win Bennelong, Hunter will be a key target. Whitlam is another target as well.
Issue is Bennelong has two demographics that the Libs have alienated
1. Chinese Australians
2. Small L liberals in the affluent waterfront parts
Agree Nimalan and Spacefish, the Hunter Valley region consisting mostly of white, working-class voters is an area with favourable demographics for the Coalition. Some of the overlapping state districts (Maitland and Port Stevens) were won by the Liberals at the 2011 NSW election.
@ Yon An
If Libs are not going to win back those demographics i have mentioned then they actually have to do super well among White Working Class residents to compenstate.
I must admit this was a seat I thought the Liberals were going to win last time until they ran that poor campaign. If the Liberals continue to infighting then Labor should have no issue holding here.
Last time this seat actually swung pretty heavily to Labor like Shortland and Hunter which was surprising. However it must be said that the independent candidate, Phillip Penfold, took skin off both Major parties. Labor went down by about 1% in primaries but the Liberals went down by a whopping 10%, which suggests to me that most of the Liberal/right wing voters either parked their votes with Penfold, One Nation, TOP or someone else and their preferences did not flow back to the Liberals as they assumed it would. I’d wonder what would’ve happened if Penfold didn’t run, as it’s pretty clear he also acted as a spoiler to the Liberals (in addition to being self-destructive themselves).