GRN 2.6% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Elizabeth Watson-Brown, since 2022.
Geography
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.
History
Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.
Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.
A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.
Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.
The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won two more terms in 2013 and 2016.
Prentice lost LNP preselection in 2019 to Brisbane City councillor Julian Simmonds, and he went on to win the seat with relative ease.
Simmonds lost his seat in 2022 to Greens candidate Elizabeth Watson-Brown. The LNP and Labor primary votes both dropped, with the Greens primary vote increasing to push Watson-Brown into second place on primary votes, and Labor preferences gave her a majority of votes after preferences.
Assessment
This seat is a complex race to watch. For Watson-Brown to win re-election, she not only needs to win the preferential count but she also needs to stay ahead of Labor.
Lower house Greens MPs usually increase their support with the benefit of incumbency, and that would be particularly helpful in seeing off the Labor threat.
The LNP’s chances of regaining the seat partly depend on the Coalition’s ability to rebuild its support amongst inner-city voters. They do not appear to have made much progress on that front yet, which should help Watson-Brown.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 38,239 | 38.5 | -10.1 |
| Elizabeth Watson-Brown | Greens | 30,003 | 30.2 | +9.9 |
| Peter Cossar | Labor | 22,146 | 22.3 | -2.1 |
| Damian Coory | Liberal Democrats | 2,582 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Joel Love | One Nation | 2,237 | 2.3 | +0.1 |
| Kathryn Pollard | United Australia | 2,062 | 2.1 | +0.6 |
| Jina Lipman | Animal Justice | 1,088 | 1.1 | -0.8 |
| Janine Rees | Labor | 606 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Axel Dancoisne | Federation Party | 353 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Informal | 3,140 | 3.1 | +0.7 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Elizabeth Watson-Brown | Greens | 52,286 | 52.6 |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 47,030 | 47.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Cossar | Labor | 52,062 | 52.4 | +8.5 |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 47,254 | 47.6 | -8.5 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.
There are two different thresholds that decide who wins Ryan: firstly, who is leading in the race between Labor and the Greens? And then, after preferences, does the LNP have a majority against the main progressive opponent?
On a two-candidate-preferred basis, the Greens won a majority in three out of four areas, ranging from 56% in Enoggera to 57.2% in the Gap. The LNP won 52.9% in the west. The Greens also won 52.3% of the pre-poll votes and the LNP won 51.7% of the other vote.
On a primary vote basis, the Greens outpolled Labor in three out of four areas, with the Greens primary vote peaking at 36% in Indooroopilly. Labor polled 28% in Enoggera, outpolling the Greens in that area.
Generally the Labor vote was highest at the northern end of the seat, the Greens vote highest in the eastern end of the seat, and the LNP vote highest in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Indooroopilly | 36.3 | 19.5 | 56.2 | 18,433 | 18.6 |
| The Gap | 34.1 | 22.9 | 57.2 | 11,435 | 11.5 |
| Enoggera | 26.9 | 28.4 | 56.0 | 8,569 | 8.6 |
| West | 28.6 | 18.1 | 47.1 | 5,271 | 5.3 |
| Pre-poll | 29.5 | 23.0 | 52.3 | 30,812 | 31.0 |
| Other votes | 26.3 | 22.0 | 48.3 | 24,796 | 25.0 |
Election results in Ryan at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs LNP), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, the Greens and Labor.
The 3CP result was much tighter in 2025 than in 2022. Either Labor or the Greens had a chance of winning and whoever came 2nd on the 3CP would ultimately get most of the preference flows from the 3rd placed party.
I think Elizabeth Watson-Brown and the Greens would fear:
1. An LNP to Labor primary vote swing if the Coalition’s leadership woes and Coalition’s stances on climate change drag on.
2. Greens voters becoming Labor voters as they age. I recall Kos Samaras saying that the Greens aren’t as good as Labor in retaining voters as they age. He cited Melbourne as an example.
3. Greens-friendly demographics shrinking e.g. renters, young professionals, students, due to rising rents and housing costs. Brisbane is now the second-most expensive capital city to buy a home. It’s even more expensive in inner-city and riverside suburbs.
@Votante couple of things:
– The Moggill and Fig Tree Pocket part of the electorate will keep the LNP in play as they’re not heavily populated but vote conservative in droves thanks to the higher rate of home ownership, seclusion from the hustle and bustle of the CBD etc. In fact all of the area west of Mt Coot-tha will help the LNP stay competitive.
– The Greens runs up their margins along the riverside suburbs in the inner west (Toowong, Auchenflower, Indooroopilly, St Lucia and Taringa) and these areas have a lot of professionals and younger people (UQ is in St Lucia). This mix usually lean Green moreso with Labor given that this area is by the riverside which is susceptible to flooding and would be way more climate conscious.
– The area I would watch is the Enoggera, Ashgrove, Ferny Grove area in the north. That’s an area that’s trending further left but is more centre-left overall. That’s where Labor gets first place on primaries but the Greens are catching up in terms of the primary vote. If the Greens can get ahead in this area Ryan will be safe Green, if not it will still be marginal Green as the LNP don’t do well here at all (or anywhere near the inner city, where the people live).
@Votante I had a feeling before the election that, if the Greens were gonna lose this seat, it wouldn’t have been to Labor, due to that high 3CP gap. I expected if the Greens had a bad night they’d lose Brisbane, but wasn’t expecting to lose Griffith (and certainly not Melbourne).
In the end, that high 3CP gap saved EWB here.
They lost Griffith because the lnp put labor in the 2cp against the greens. And it was a group effort in Brisbane. Melbourne was probably part due to bandts issues and the removal of brunswick for more favourable boundaries south of the yarra. I wouldnt rule out the greens making a return in either melbourne griffith or briabane either. I also wouldn’t consider Brisbane or Ryan lost to theLNP if they can ger their act togerher. It will probly depend on how the state fovt does as well.