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Labor threw a significant amount of resources here and got extremely lucky despite marking not budging. I still think a seat like this will be the Liberals future to return to government along with neighbouring and nearby seats like McEwen and Bendigo.
There is a lot of population growth here so i expect a major redistribution again probably before 2031 i also think Labor is undeperforming due to local issues such as Western Highway Upgrade and Melton electrification which may be resolved by 2031.
Apparently Sam Rae is a pretty aggressive campaigner whose door knocking efforts was remarked by Kos Samaras after the election as very engaged and effective. I suspect as a minister (not under the best of circumstances mind you) he’ll probably get a lot more resources to keep this seat securely in Labor’s fold for 2028 and beyond. If Labor puts more into the electorate with investments on the Western Highway, Melton Hospital, Melton/Wyndham Vale Line electrification and accelerate their builds then they’ll hold the seat.
@ Tommo9
Both Parties commited to Western Highway upgrade. Melton Hospital is due for completion in 2029 with construction under way.
Once Metro tunnel opens next month there will be pressure for Melton/Wyndham line electrification. Metro tunnel was a pre-requisite for that.
As we speak State Labor are already removing 3 level crossings on Melton line.
https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/1.1-billion-safer-more-efficient-western-freeway