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Another seat where Labor threw a significant amount of resources and margin barely moved. When Rob Mitchell retires Labor will have a hard time holding here.
It’s pretty clear that even though the outer suburbs didn’t swing as hard as inner city/middle class seats, they aren’t receptive to what the Coalition is serving up at the moment. For them to regain ground in the ‘Battler’ seats like McEwen, Hawke and Gorton they’ll need to go back to centre-right politics of Turnbull rather than the hard right that the Liberals are obsessed with at present.
@ SpaceFish
What you need to factor is the Urban Sprawl here especially in Mitchell and Whittlsea council see my comments in 2025 thread
Population growth in the Southern suburbs may actually be helping Labor as Drake said even if they are undeperforming as there just more Labor voters and the seat is becoming less rural day by day. As an example in the Beveridge booth in 2022 there were 1060 formal votes cast in 2025 there was 1422 formal votes while in Donnybrook (Woodstock) booth there were 301 votes cast in 2022 but in 2025 there were 1050 so number of voters in that booth has tripled both booths had small swings to Labor. The libs do best in the Semi-rural areas of the seat but they are not growing in population. Each election there are new voters in this seat who did not live there the previous election. Also there will be a high amount of Gen Z voters in Mernda/Doreen who will join the electoral roll in 2028. Mernda, Doreen where suburbs developed in the 2000s so many Gen Z who are currently in High School will be able to vote in 2028 and still live at home. The best home for Libs is to add more rural areas from Casey, Indi or Nicholls
I thought the narrative was that it was the *Liberals* who “threw a significant amount of resources” and the margin barely moved!
If the Liberal Party split, McEwen is the sort of seat where a moderate Liberal could beat a Conservative.