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This gained a lot of attention that Labor was in trouble but it seems that the change in the demographics during the lockdowns years has assisted Labor’s hold on here. I expect this electorate to continue to shrink and eventually lose the last part of the Surf Coast council area which will likely go into Wannon.
Only the semi-rural booths here are Blue.
Even if the Surf Coast is removed it is not enough to win the seat. Libs need to flip booths on the Bellarine Penisula and the growth area suburbs as well.
In an expansion of parliament, one would assume this seat will either be entirely fixed to the Bellarine Peninsula, or redrawn back to include Lake Corangamite.