To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
This should have been easiest gain for Libs in 2025. I still think Libs would win this in 2028 and the easiest gain. Labor now has a bigger majority than in 2022 so Labor can afford to write off this seat and focus resouces elsewhere.
It’s Labor’s most marginal (ALP vs Coalition) seat. The parts making up Bullwinkel were traditionally Liberal. Ongoing urban sprawl will make it harder for the Nationals.
It will undoubtly be the first target for the Liberals. We’ve also seen challengers lose to incumbents in seats with margins of <1% due to challenger complacency or incumbents sandbagging effectively.
I wonder if Mia Davies were to give it another crack in 2028 if she’ll be the one to win this off Labor for the Nationals.
@SpaceFish November 11, 2025 at 7:42 pm
Iirc, the majority of Bullwinkel resides within the outer Eastern Suburbs of Perth which host demographics which the Liberals are far more easily able to appeal to compared to the Nationals.
I’ve never been able to wrap my head around why 6 News projections consistently give Bullwinkel to the Nationals over the Liberals.
Because the liberals are going so badly that the nats are outpolling them.
I guess because notionally the Nats came from nowhere to 3rd place in 2025 so the model assumes they’ll continue the momentum and go past the libs in 2028 – I wouldn’t place much weight on it
Agreed the lib vote should.probably recover them.back into 2nd by then
It depends on whether Mia Davies will be back in 2028. I think her name recognition helped in the Wheatbelt part over east. I agree that the Outer Eastern suburbs of Perth aren’t favourable for the Nationals.
If the Nationals don’t run, it might help the Liberals. In 2025, the Nationals to Liberal preference flow was only 81%. Australian Christians had a higher preference flow at 83%.