Whitlam – Australia 2025

@John if anyone is going to recruit Paddy it will be nationals as he has more skin there. Not saying they will or he will. The Liberal branches don’t exist because Gareth Ward, the world’s longest on bail charged sex offender politician walked out of the Liberals & took his team with him.
What there was left of the liberal branches walked out with Britton too.

Whether Carol Berry “cuts the mustard” remains to be seen and she’ll have 3 years to prove to the people of Whitlam whether shes worth another look in or not. The only real policies I’ve seen being pushed from Carols campaign are an echo of the national policies, with very little mention of the local issues. We have a new hospital being built, how about some help to get more direct access to the motorway for it. We have an airport that is underutilised, could federal provide some funding to help make the south coast a thriving regional hub. We need a pretty significant (and costly) connection to complete the Tripoli Way project in Albion Park, Labor have been splashing cash around other parts of the electorate, not us however because we are the safe section of Labors Whitlam voters. We have a marina that we are pushing to boost our tourism profile in the region, would federal like to step in and help us boost it?
National policies and agendas to help families across the nation are wonderful and all, but if those are the only focus points to put your name to, you could nominate any Labor branch member in the running for Whitlam and they will win. In 3 years time people will be asking the same question they are thinking of when it comes to Stephen Jones tenure at this election, and the reason why the vote is swinging further away from Labor as younger voters who like to question things ask, “what have they actually done for our electorate that isn’t just a national policy?”

It seems the highlands decided they didn’t want smith a second time around. Interesting to see some reasonable size swings on primary away from labor on the coast, yet significant swings to them in the highlands…

Giod result here for the libs. Despite a nation swing and candidate controversy. They managed a small swing towards them. If they get their act together they can absolutely topple labor here in 2028.

90% chance they don’t though, there’s no competence left.

The results here were quite positive for the Liberals despite the candidate controversies and the overall swing here. Big swings against Labor in the Illawarra side, about ten or so polling places under 60% 2PP for Labor in this side. The big shock for me was Shell Cove Public swinging to Labor when I expected it would flip Liberal. Additionally interesting to note that the Greens came second at the Dapto Ribbonwood Centre ahead of the Liberals. That polling place is now only 59% 2PP for Labor, a far cry from last election and at state level.

The Highlands was a different story. All the Mittagong & Bowral area booths (with the exception of East Bowral Community Centre) voted Labor. I see Nathaniel Smith likely dragged on the Liberal vote as a reflection on his performance as Wollondilly MP. Nonetheless I think he would have done better than Britton.

@Darth Vader – I personally disagree with your sentiment. Carol Berry has been given the opportunity to represent the people of Whitlam, saying that a better candidate would beat her in 2028 is not true. She has the opportunity to develop a personal vote despite a parachute status, similar to Andrew Charlton. The Liberals admittedly would need to be polling close to in the lead nationally to have a shot here, and obviously to choose a decent candidate who doesn’t blow the seat big time like Britton and to a lesser extent Smith did. They might also hope for a gaffe or poor policy announcement from Carol Berry or Labor in general that would negatively implicate on this seat.

one that the nats could gain if they’re running here next time but i doubt the liberals will frankly

Next redistribution will see Whitlam squeezed into the Southern Highlands, as Cunningham moves south and Gilmore north. So I’m expecting it to return to Libs or Nats after that.

the nats should run here if the libs are so incompetent.

@blast i doubt gilmore will move north at last redistribution gilmore was over quota and they just trimmed a bit of the top to make it at quota. given the problems with hughes and the defeceits there i want to see that move south along withh cunningham.

Here as in Pearce the Libs managed a small swing despite the national swing going against them and questionable candidate choices. If the libs had their act together this would have been a liberal gain. Labor might be I trouble in 2028. They’ve now got 3 years to get their act together.

@ John
I agree this is a seat that Liberals did not win in 2013 but may win when next in goverment. I do think the Offshore Windfarm issue hurt Labor here. IMHO the Southern Highlands and Illawara should be in seperate seats so i am hoping an expansion of parliament would eventually fix this.

I decided to do a calculation of the Wingecarribee/Southern Highlands booths in this seat. I wasn’t able to do postals because:
1. No figures where the votes came from.
2. I am under the assumption that the Liberals won the postal vote in this side of the seat, even though Labor won the postal vote here overall.

Here’s what I got for the 2PP on booth day:
ALP – 8284 (51.6%)
LIB – 7757 (48.4%)

With pre-poll figures from the Bowral PPVC:
ALP – 14299 (49.5%)
LIB – 14582 (50.5%)

I think this result is reflective that Nathaniel Smith was a problematic candidate here, albeit better than Britton was. But it is concerning that a normally Liberal stronghold like the Southern Highlands seems to be shifting away from them. Still the Liberals won here and there should be room to improve fortunately, though there does appear to be some demographic change favouring Labor.

Booth Results Map: https://jumpshare.com/share/MjkCGcy3WdxX4HZ1Sj9k

The swings went in different directions and were divided on geography.

The Illawarra part (Wollongong and Shellharbour) mainly had 2PP swings to the Liberals. The Greens got a pickup in votes in traditionally working class suburbs like Dapto, Kanahooka, Albion Park Rail and Albion Park. This is similar to swings to the Greens in working class suburbs in various metropolitan areas.

The Southern Highlands mainly had 2PP swings to Labor. Two unique factors might’ve contributed – offshore wind farms were non-issues and a vote against Nathaniel Smith. There’s also less of a rust belt phenomenon as the Southern Highlands isn’t as reliant on manufacturing or shipping as the Illawarra.

@Nimalan I’d all but guarantee this seat will be part of the next Coalition govt. Maybe they’ll even win it without government.

@ Scart
in 2013 there were 3 seats that Howard did not win that Abbott won (Banks, Barton and Reid) so there will be a few seats that they may win when next in Government that they did not win in 2013, McEwen is probably the next example. Conversely, Abbott did not win Makin, Kingston and Moreton due to the fact Federal Labor did better in South Australia and Queensland in 2013 compared to 1996. However, i feel by 2031 there should be an expansion of parliament not for any partisan reason but as Australia population is projected to reach 30 milion (a doubling from the 1984 expansion) so Whitlam maybe split into 2 seats (one Good for Libs and one Safer for Labor)

The libs should be able to win McEwen and Ehitlam over the next 2 terms minimum. If not for the poor candidatr problems and the bad liberal campaign among other things they likely would have won Whitlam and McEwen this time.