ALP 3.7%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Charlton, since 2022.
Geography
Western Sydney. The seat of Parramatta covers the centre of Parramatta and surrounding suburbs, including Wentworthville, Westmead, Carlingford, Dundas, Ermington, Girraween, Pendle Hill and Rydalmere, and parts of Epping, Seven Hills and Toongabbie. The electorate covers most of the City of Parramatta along with a small part of the Cumberland and Blacktown council areas.
Redistribution
Parramatta shifted north, expanding to the north-east and north-west. Parramatta lost Granville and the remainder of Merrylands to Blaxland, bringing the southern border up to the M4. Parramatta gained Ermington and parts of Epping and Melrose Park from Bennelong and Berowra in the north-east, and Girraween and parts of Seven Hills from Greenway in the north-west. These changes cut the Labor margin from 4.6% to 3.7%.
History
Parramatta is an original Federation electorate. The seat has long been a marginal seat, focused on the Parramatta CBD. The seat has shrunk substantially from its original boundaries, when it covered most of what is now northwestern Sydney and stretched as far as Lithgow.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Joseph Cook, a former minister in George Reid’s Free Trade colonial government. Cook held the seat for the first twenty years of Federation, successively for the Free Trade Party, Anti-Socialist Party, Commonwealth Liberal Party and the Nationalists.
Cook served as Leader of the Anti-Socialist Party following George Reid’s retirement in 1908, and agreed to merge with Alfred Deakin’s Protectionists in 1909 to form the Commonwealth Liberal Party. He served as Defence Minister in Deakin’s final government and became Liberal leader after Deakin’s defeat at the 1910 election.
Cook won the 1913 election, becoming Prime Minister, but with a Labor majority in the Senate his government was stifled, and he called a Double Dissolution in 1914, which he lost.
In 1916, Labor Prime Minister Billy Hughes left the ALP over the issue of conscription, and Cook agreed to merge his Liberals with the Labor rebels to form the Nationalist Party, with Cook as Hughes’ deputy. He retired in 1921 to serve as High Commissioner in London.
The ensuing by-election was won by Herbert Pratten. Pratten moved to the new seat of Martin in 1922, and was replaced in Parramatta by fellow Nationalist Eric Bowden. Pratten held Martin until his death in 1928, while Bowden held Parramatta until 1929, when he lost the seat.
Labor candidate Albert Rowe won in 1929, but only held it for one term, losing it to United Australia Party candidate Frederick Stewart in 1931. Stewart went on to serve in a variety of ministerial roles in the Lyons and Menzies governments, and retired in 1946.
Parramatta was won in 1946 by Liberal candidate Howard Beale. Beale served as a minister in the Menzies government from its election in 1949 until his retirement in 1958, when he became Ambassador to the United States.
The seat was won in 1958 by prominent barrister Garfield Barwick, who held the seat for the Liberals until 1964, when he was appointed Chief Justice of the High Court of Australia.
The 1964 by-election was held by Liberal candidate Nigel Bowen. Bowen joined Harold Holt’s cabinet following the 1966 election and remained there until the election of the Whitlam government. He left Parliament in 1973 to serve on the NSW Supreme Court.
The 1973 by-election was a key contest during the Whitlam government. Bowen had held on by a slim margin in 1972, but Liberal candidate Philip Ruddock managed a 7% swing and won the seat.
Ruddock was re-elected in 1974 and 1975, but moved to the new seat of Dundas in 1977. He held Dundas until its abolition in 1993, when he moved to Berowra, which he held until 2016. He served as Minister for Immigration then Attorney-General in the Howard government. Following his retirement from parliament, he serves as Mayor of Hornsby from 2017 until 2024.
Parramatta was won in 1977 by the ALP’s John Brown. Brown served as a junior minister for the first two terms of the Hawke government, and was promoted to Cabinet in 1987, but was forced to resign as a minister in 1988 after misleading the House, and retired in 1990.
Brown was succeeded by former Mayor of Parramatta Paul Elliott, also an ALP member. Elliott served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the final term of the Labor government, and lost Parramatta to Liberal candidate Ross Cameron in 1996.
Cameron was appointed a Parliamentary Secretary after the 2001 election, and continued in similar roles until the 2004 election, where he was one of the few Liberal MPs to lose their seat, with Labor candidate Julie Owens winning the seat.
The 2007 redistribution pushed Parramatta north and made it notionally Liberal, but a big swing saw Owens retain the seat. Owens was re-elected four times, and retired in 2022.
Labor’s Andrew Charlton won Parramatta in 2022, seeing off Liberal candidate Maria Kovacic who was later appointed to a vacancy in the Senate.
Assessment
Parramatta is a very marginal seat, but Charlton will likely benefit from a new personal vote after three years in the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Charlton | Labor | 34,258 | 40.7 | -4.4 | 40.2 |
| Maria Kovacic | Liberal | 29,492 | 35.0 | -6.3 | 36.8 |
| Phil Bradley | Greens | 7,546 | 9.0 | +1.7 | 9.5 |
| Julian Fayad | United Australia | 4,269 | 5.1 | +2.5 | 4.2 |
| Steve Christou | Independent | 2,982 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 2.3 |
| Heather Freeman | One Nation | 2,011 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.3 |
| Rohan Laxmanalal | Animal Justice | 2,397 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 2.0 |
| Liza Tazewell | Liberal Democrats | 1,310 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.7 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 8,259 | 8.9 | +0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Charlton | Labor | 45,980 | 54.6 | +1.1 | 53.7 |
| Maria Kovacic | Liberal | 38,285 | 45.4 | -1.1 | 46.3 |
Booths in Parramatta have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.7% in the north-east to 55.6% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote of 8.2% in the west and almost 11% in the other two areas.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 10.8 | 53.9 | 19,497 | 21.0 |
| West | 8.2 | 55.6 | 16,831 | 18.2 |
| North-East | 10.7 | 51.7 | 12,876 | 13.9 |
| Pre-poll | 8.8 | 54.5 | 25,084 | 27.1 |
| Other votes | 9.7 | 52.2 | 18,358 | 19.8 |
Election results in Parraatta at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
It could tip the seat to the libs
Parramatta doesn’t have a large Muslim population. There large Muslim areas to the south of Parramatta like Granville, Merrylands, Guildford etc are all in Blaxland. This will have zero effect in the seat of Parramatta.
Should Labor retaining will because the aec put the heavy Labor voting areas of Cumberland and blacktown into a seat that could have been solely within the city of Parramatta.
Other than Wentworthville and Westmead, the Cumberland council is very demographically different to Parramatta and it makes sense that places like Granville and Merrylands are not in the seat of Parramatta or the local council area for that matter. Clearly the M4 is a pretty clear social divide in this part of Sydney.
I’m pretty sure Wentworthville and Westmead are specifically left out of Parramatta LGA because the Liberal government at the time of the council changes wanted a Liberal leaning council. From a community of interest perspective it makes zero sense to draw the boundaries to leave them out while stretching all the way northeast and southeast to Epping and Olympic Park.
Agreeing with @Adam’s comment: Parramatta has a relatively low Muslim population especially after the redistribution which took the heavily-Muslim Granville area out. I doubt the MVM HTV card will be too effective.
If there was an ‘Indian Votes Matter’ or ‘Chinese Votes Matter’ campaign in this seat (Parramatta has large Indian and Chinese communities in it) it could be quite effective.
Overall it would likely take a bit off of the PV for Andrew Charlton but I’m not seeing the mood for change especially with the turnaround in polling to favour Labor.
A few months back I gave this as a Liberal chance. Times have changed – Labor hold.
Unlike the outer Western Sydney seats, Parramatta is a much more affluent and educated electorate with more professional white collar people living and working in the area. They’re not going to be played and treated like mugs by this organisation, whose ambitions seem to achieve the effect of ‘cutting off their nose to spite their faces’ with this sort of rhetoric.
Besides, didn’t we see Steve Christou do something similar last election to preference Labor last because they parachuted Charlton in? That was far more controversial for Labor yet it barely shifted the dial last time round and Charlton even increased his 2PP. With MVM preferencing the Greens, their votes will flow straight back to Labor anyway as it’s a classic ALP vs LIB race.
Redistributed I was at the pre poll booth on Sat. Libs are not out of the race though I’d say charlton will get over the line. His position on the ballot will probably get him.over the line on donkey votes
@Tommo, Steve Christou is based around the Granville ward and is most active in the eastern part of Cumberland Council so that is probably why it explained the trend.
In this seats, Hindus are the largest religious minority not Muslims especially on the new boundaries. Last time there was a swing away from Labor (western parts of the seat) due to a South Asian candidate being overlooked for this seat a bit like what happened in Fowler. Andrew Chartlon since being elected has made effort with the South Asian community and secured funding for $7 million hall a the Hindu Temple in Westmead so he may get a swing around Wentworthville, Toongabbie, Pendle Hill etc
I think MVM is doing stuff everywhere though, not just highly muslim seats, although those are the only places they’ll have any real influence.
@Marh: I could not find an HTV recommending preferences to the Liberal Party over Labor on the Muslim Vote website anymore, however the article you cited has a copy of such HTV. https://themuslimvote.com.au/htv/
Parramatta has a relatively low Muslim population, and very few voters will even see such an HTV, let alone follow it. Zero impact on the result I think.
The Muslim Vote is recommendin liberals over labor however Muslim Votes Matter is recommending labor over liberal
MVM spruikers at Bonner prepoll said they were preferencing against the sitting members, conversation with them re Gaza was more about what the Coalition might do rather than how Labor has hid on the issue.
Was also queried on the value of AUKUS as opposed to spending the money on stuff unrelated to defence and also why Australia needs submarines.
Charlton has proved he is a grub with asking if those volunteers were Exclusive Brethren. Seems very sad to ask that and film it by a sitting Federal MP!
I will be interested in the margin and the swing compared to other Sydney seats here.
Huge turnout for the liberals at pre-poll. Unfortunately reports of female Greens & Labor volunteers being harassed by the Liberal’s Exclusive Brethren crew.
Despite an oversized turnout for lib volunteers being shipped in from other electorates, most people in the prepoll line had a Labor HTV card.
Labor have been campaigning everywhere throughout the election period, and big turnout from the public sector unions in Parra Square. Liberals had no local presence until the Exclusive Brethren showed up for prepoll.
Think this will be a clear Labor victory, boosted by an incumbent and public sector cut backlash. Notably none of the “leaked” Liberal party key seats over the last few days include Parramatta..
All the talk of Liberals getting close in this seat and the Muslim Vote Matter rubbish has clearly been a smokescreen of nothingness. A near double digit swing to Labor in this seat with Andrew Charlton almost romping it home on primaries alone. Liberals dropped substantially and the seat’s now the safest its been since the 20th century.
I think we can say the same about most seats this election. It all comes down to the failed liberal campaign and trump. Maybe a bit of vote buying from albo and some scaremongering. Lets see albo try and fulfill all his promises.
I repeatedly said this was not going to be as close as people here thought and the margin was deceptive. The big swing here is pretty much in line with my expectations. I don’t think this is going to become any easier in future elections for the Liberals either, as the demographics are only getting better for Labor.
It may be true that everywhere swung, but this swung more than most, and that reflects the inherent difficulty that Liberals face in this seat. Charlton’s margin was undercooked in 2022 thanks to the controversy and that’s now behind him.
I also thought there’d be a swing to Labor because of Andrew Charlton’s sophomore surge plus structual and local demographic trends. However, I admit I didn’t expect a swing of over 9%. So far, this is the second biggest 2PP swing in NSW.
Andrew Charlton is considered a rising star in the Labor party. There were some of his backers who were agitating for him to get a more prominent role in his first term. The problem for Charlton is he is in the Right faction and based in NSW. They already have Chris Bowen, Tony Burke, and Jason Clare on the front bench. Ed Husic has had to depart to make room for the increase numbers from the other states. Charlton may have to bide his time.
The libs should look at a more diverse candidate given the diversity of the seat. Originally I thought it would be close but the national trend set in here as it did everywhere else
I mentioned this before as well, Andrew Chartlon underperformed among South Asians in 2022 so the margin was deceptively low. Also this is not a demographic Dutton will play well in a lot of renters, recent migrants, not mortgage belt or outer suburban. This seat has the lowest Austrralian born %.
There were huge swing in Wentworthville, Toongabbie etc which have large South Asian communities.
This needs to be more heavily targeted in the future. In fact all of Western Sydney in general needs to be. This and Greenway stuck with Labor even in 2013 yet on the state level those two seats are exactly where the battleground is and if Labor hadn’t gained seats in this area from the Liberals in 2023 they wouldn’t have formed government (they could’ve still done it without Penrith which is in Lindsay but they couldn’t without Parramatta or Riverstone).
@ Nether Portal
I dont think Chifley/Mount Druitt needs to be targetted neither Campbelltown at a state level. But i hear you. I think Parramatta stuck with Labor in 2013 due to more Labor friendly boundaries and Julia Owens personal vote. Greenway only stuck with Labor in 2013 due to James Diaz is you are not simmilar with him just watch him on Youtube. I agree Labor could not have formed government without Riverstone, Parramatta, Penrith. The other area to watch is Banks (Oatley, East Hills) which are also marginal seats at the state level.
@Darth Vader it is pretty lazy to suggest that voters will vote for someone just because of what they look like or their ethnic background. Just look at Bennelong this election
Agree with @Nimalan on Greenway and Parramatta in 2013. Owen’s barely held on in 2013, and Ben’s chart shows she would’ve fallen short then on current boundaries.
To @bazza’s point, I think recent elections do raise some questions about the impact of a candidate’s ethnic background, and whether it is as significant a factor as we may be inclined to think.
@Nimalan I understand that but neither of those are factors anymore so they need to campaign here.
The swings in Carlingford and Epping were crazy! There were double-digit swings and even swings of over 15% or 20%. These were on top of double-digit swings to Labor in 2022.
Those suburbs have large Chinese migrant populations and to a lesser extent, Korean and Indian migrant populations. A lot of residents are white-collar professionals and/or degree holders. Here is a prime example of the Liberals’ disconnect and loss in electorates or areas with lots of professionals and uni graduates.
@np greenway 2013 can be attributed to the Diaz debacle. Libs should have won that.
@bazza tell me more why all 3 parties in Fowler went with someone from Vietnamese background. It didn’t help this time around as there was clearly an anti liberal swing going on. 5 weeks ago he would have won.
@Darth Vader
On the Lyons thread, you argue that White’s candidacy wasn’t a factor – and point to the fact that there was a swing to Labor everywhere.
Now you are arguing that Yung’s candidacy in Bennelong worked in the Liberals’ favour, but it didn’t help because there was a swing to Labor everywhere.
I’m trying to understand your perspective. What has you convinced that White’s candidacy wasn’t a factor in Lyons but Yung’s was in Bennelong?
I got the impression from your previous comments on various threads that you’re of the view that candidate selection is less of a factor than others believe, but here you’re making the opposite case.
I never said it did I simply said he would have won if the factors that toppled the libs didn’t happen. White wouldn’t have won. Having white did not help labor win. Unless you can see into a parallel universe where those factors weren’t in play there’s no proof it did.
By the same logic, there’s also no proof that it didn’t help. Personally, however, I wouldn’t brush off a 10% swing as just being a statewide thing, when statewide was a high but still lower 8.3%. Braddon’s massive swing is also likely thanks to the profile of its new MP plus the loss of the former Liberal MP and the new Liberal candidate not matching up. So I would be inclined to believe White’s candidate quality assisted with the swing in Lyons.
But they would have won regardless
In Parramatta as well as in Bennelong and Reid, the drops in the Liberal primary vote aren’t surprising. The Liberals didn’t hold onto their base.
Before the election, I thought that their 25c/L fuel excise cut wouldn’t be a winner. There are more EV drivers, public transport users and WFH professionals than average. There’s little benefit to them.
Parramatta has lots and lots of public sector jobs, mainly state government ones. Same goes with Macquarie Park and Chatswood to a lesser extent. Methinks that people feared that a proposed axing of APS jobs would make it ok for state government to axe state government jobs. Axing APS jobs won’t just affect the public servants themselves but also their families and private sector workers who depend on the APS e.g. barristas, security contractors and cleaners inside public sector buildings, vendors and contractors to the government.
@Votante the fuel discount cost them a lot of votes. It was ridiculous. I noticed in dealing with the public that it was the one thing about the election that got people talking – mainly to knock it. A six month discount and then back to normal. It was a sugar hit. The geographical and demographic centre of Sydney is Pendle Hill, which is west of Parramatta. West of there a car is compulsory as Public Transport just isn’t a viable option in the outer west suburban sprawl. It was a shoppa-docket policy response and after that people just didn’t take Radioactive Man seriously.
@Lachlan, the policy was for 12 months. Either way, it didn’t allow the Liberals to be seen as the party of lower long-term taxes. I heard it was a rushed policy done in time for Dutton’s budget reply speech.