LIB 2.9%
Incumbent MP
Russell Broadbent (Independent), since 2019. Previously member for Corinella 1990-1993, member for McMillan 1996-1998, 2004-2019.
Geography
South-eastern Victoria. Monash covers parts of Victoria stretching from the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne to the Latrobe Valley. The seat stretches from Western Port in the west to Moe in the east, and stretches down to the coast. McMillan covers the entirety of Bass Coast and South Gippsland council areas, most of Baw Baw council area and parts of the Latrobe council area. The seat covers the towns of Warragul, Moe, Wonthaggi, Leongatha and Foster.
History
The electorate name “Monash” was introduced in 2019 as a new name for the seat of McMillan, which had been first created in 1949. The seat has mostly been held by conservative parties, although since the 1980s the ALP has won the seat on a number of occasions.
The seat was first won by Geoffrey Brown of the Liberal Party in 1949. Brown won a three-cornered contest on Country Party preferences. The Country Party occasionally would contest the seat throughout the 1950s and 1960s, but never managed to overtake the Liberal Party. Brown was reelected in 1951 and 1954 but died in 1955 before the election.
The seat was won at the 1955 election by Alexander Buchanan, also a Liberal. Buchanan held the seat for seventeen years without taking ministerial office before losing the Liberal Party’s endorsement in 1972.
Buchanan stood as an independent in 1972, and preferences from the DLP and Buchanan allowed Country Party candidate Arthur Hewson to leapfrog the official Liberal candidate and defeat the ALP candidate on Liberal preferences.
Hewson was reelected in a fierce contest in 1974, when the Liberals stood Ronald Dent against him despite a coalition agreement, and Hewson narrowly defeated Dent on primary votes before overtaking the ALP on preferences.
Hewson was defeated by Liberal candidate Barry Simon in 1975, and the Nationals never came close to winning McMillan again. Simon held the seat until 1980, when the ALP’s Barry Cunningham won it.
Cunningham held the seat throughout the 1980s, losing to John Riggall (LIB) in 1990. Riggall was defeated by Cunningham in 1993, and Cunningham was defeated by Russell Broadbent in 1996.
Broadbent had previously held the neighbouring seat of Corinella for one term from 1990 to 1993, and Corinella had been abolished at the 1996 election.
Broadbent was again defeated in 1998 by Christian Zahra, a 25-year-old ALP candidate. Zahra was made a shadow Parliamentary Secretary after the 2001 election, and was considered to have a promising career, before losing to Broadbent in 2004.
Broadbent managed to win re-election in 2007 after developing a reputation for rebelling against the Howard government’s immigration policies, and has been re-elected five more times since.
Broadbent lost preselection for Monash in November 2023, and he went on to resign from the Liberal Party to serve out his term as an independent.
Assessment
Monash is quite a marginal seat, and the loss of the sitting MP’s personal vote may make things harder for the Liberal Party. The presence of both Deb Leonard as a well-funded teal independent and Broadbent as an ex-Coalition independent make this race quite complicated.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Russell Broadbent | Liberal | 36,546 | 37.8 | -8.2 |
| Jessica O’Donnell | Labor | 24,759 | 25.6 | -4.3 |
| Deb Leonard | Independent | 10,372 | 10.7 | +10.7 |
| Mat Morgan | Greens | 9,533 | 9.9 | +2.7 |
| Allan Hicken | One Nation | 7,289 | 7.5 | +0.2 |
| Christine Ann McShane | United Australia | 3,991 | 4.1 | +0.2 |
| Meg Edwards | Liberal Democrats | 3,548 | 3.7 | +3.7 |
| David Matthew Welsh | Federation Party | 674 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 4,752 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Russell Broadbent | Liberal | 51,156 | 52.9 | -4.0 |
| Jessica O’Donnell | Labor | 45,556 | 47.1 | +4.0 |
Booths have been divided into four areas, which reflect local government boundaries.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, with 55.2% in Baw Baw and 56.6% in South Gippsland. Labor polled 53.8% in Bass Coast and 58.2% in Latrobe.
Independent candidate Deb Leonard came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.7% in Latrobe to 14.3% in Bass Coast.
| Voter group | IND prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Baw Baw | 8.8 | 55.2 | 15,233 | 15.8 |
| South Gippsland | 10.8 | 56.6 | 13,443 | 13.9 |
| Bass Coast | 14.3 | 46.2 | 8,454 | 8.7 |
| Latrobe | 8.7 | 41.8 | 3,586 | 3.7 |
| Pre-poll | 9.1 | 51.9 | 39,442 | 40.8 |
| Other votes | 9.8 | 55.9 | 16,554 | 17.1 |
Election results in Monash at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, independent candidate Deb Leonard and the Greens.
Deb Leonard is running with support from Climate 200 is she not?
Yes, she is supported by Climate 200. Although fwiw, she is careful to point out she is not directly funded by Holmes a Court himself.
I hadn’t realised that the Labor HTVs had Broadbent above Leonard, although as it turned out it probably won’t matter as Broadbent will most likely be out before any Labor preferences are distributed (if they are). Leonard is currently 2.8% behind Labor on primaries and I’d expect she would probably make that up on Greens/Legalise Cannabis preferences (8% between them) as well as some One Nation/TOP preferences that come via Broadbent (Broadbent’s own preferences will presumably mostly go to the Liberals), though Labor will get a few One Nation preferences via the donkey vote. That becomes harder if postals widen that gap by another percent or two.
so is the thinking here that if Labor finishes second that it is an easy lib win – but if Leonard can sneak into second then it will be a lot closer?
There are two big preference questions here:
1. How tight will One Nation and Broadbent preferences be in going to the Liberals?
2. How tight will Greens and Cannabis preferences in going to Leonard?
As noted Leonard has to get over the top of Labor though that will be progressively harder as she is not doing well on postals and last time didn’t do that well on Provisional Pre Polls or Absentees either so the gap may get bigger before preferences are distributed.
One Nation have the donkey so those votes will get to Labor before either Leonard or Libs. Last time there was a big flow to Leonard from ON but that may not happen now that she is a known quantity.
Leonard may pick up the ‘pox on both your houses’ from other candidates possibly from Broadbent voters.
Does anybody have any idea how much leakage there might be from Greens voters to Labor rather than Leonard? At best 10 or 12% would go to the Libs. For Cannabis, it is hard to see that they would have got many HTVs out there so the preferences would be loose. All will be clear once there is a 2pp count but that could be days away.
Thoughts anyone?
I scrutineered on Saturday night at the Warragul prepoll centre. This is totally UNSCIENTIFIC, but based on some samples I observed.
One Nation holding solidly to Broadbent/Libs – probably greater than 85%.
Legalise Cannibis – Majority to Leonard but certainly a drift to Labor.
Greens – Predominantly to Leonard but probably a 20% drift to Labor
Trumpets – all over the shop.
Just heard from a scrutineer 10 mins ago. The AEC has done a 3 CP distribution today on 12 booths and it was still too close to call. They extended it to 20 booths and still too close to call. So all in all, nobody knows.
BT – Labor had Leonard 2nd, Broadbent 3rd. FYI
Preferencewhisperer, would you rule out Broadbent from the race?
He might get preference flows from One Nation and right-wing micro parties. Since postal voters tend to be older, would they favour Broadbent a bit more than ordinary voters?
The main barrier for him is his low primary vote and like you mentioned, LCA’s voters don’t really favour him and ToP’s voters are all over with preferences.
@Preferencewhisperer – that’s interesting if that’s what was being handed out locally, what I’d seen was the statewide card for absentee voters which I looked at in a quiet moment while handing out in Cooper.
Broadbent no chance. Latest news is that Leonard is a nose in front of Labor in the 3CP count, although this situation is fluid. If she does finish there, she’d need just under 80% of Labor preferences to overhaul Aldred.
The 3cp for Monash is in except for two of the Hospital Teams. Labor is 968 votes ahead of Deb Leonard and that margin would increase slightly with the other two booths. Libs on 46.32%. Not sure how much further they need to go before they work on 2cp only.
About 7,000 votes still to go – hard to see her passing Labor on those.
ABC has called this seat as a win for Mary Aldred.