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The Liberal Party have preselected James Brown to run at the next election. Was a very tight race all the way through, and a controversial winner at that.
James Brown moved to the Northern Beaches in 2022, after divorcing from Daisy Turnbull (daughter of Malcolm) and beat off a host of local candidates, including Vicky McGahey, Former Councillor Michael Gencher, Co-Founder of Pandora Australia Brook Adcock and Intelligence expert Lincoln Parker.
What’s our thoughts around this seat? IND retain with the recent overlapping NSW state seat going IND.
expect IND to retain. Scamps campaign seems to be around cost-of-living/economic issues. Her current policy is a tax free threshold for small businesses
No comment from anybody so far on the Northern Beaches Council issue-background here:
https://www.northernbeachesadvocate.com.au/2025/01/29/residents-rage-over-rate-rise/
Those councillors who voted for the rate rise are independents who would be Scamps supporters.They are in power thanks to the Liberals failing to nominate in the last election.
Scamps has purported to distance herself from the rate rise,but she may face problems in doing so.
6 months ago I would have said Scamps would walk this in but the Council 40% rate rise changed the contest.
Scamps made a critical and possibly fatal error by endorsing and promoting many of the councillors who voted for the rate rise and hand out for the Teals, and she put herself in this position by putting it all over her own social media. She then had a train wreck of an interview on day time Sky News which is being shared everywhere and openly mocked.
The reaction on the ground/online has been quite fierce and every social media group (which are very heavily suburb based) is being flooded with a very angry mob with baseball bats against the Teals (with the only exception being the Teal stronghold of Avalon).
There’s no doubt the reaction has caught Scamps by surprise and she’s now got her staffers out running defence all over social media. I would say she starts as favourite because she has time to see if the issue dies down, a larger volunteer base, far more cash than the Libs and Climate 200. But this contest is definitely going to be far closer now and a swing against is at least in scope now.
yes – liberals are trying to blame greens/teals for the rate rise and tie this with Scamps and Steggle
From the voting record in council it seems some greens and independent were against the rate rise – not that facts matter too much here
Reliably informed polling completed shortly before the Council rate rise was 2PP LIB 51 and IND 49 and focus groups were incredibly negative about Scamps lack of work in the seat (as opposed to her policy work outside of it which has been decent). A bit of a surprise result since Scamps has only had 3 years.
Have also confirmed:
1. Scamps is moving quickly into battle mode and has no choice but to start spending early. She is setting up a campaign office in Dee Why (across the road from the Libs campaign office which has been running since before Christmas!). I wonder if we’ll get a handshake in the middle of a busy Pittwater Road!
2. The Libs have been quietly bullish since they lost the seat as they felt that it had nothing to do with the previous member and was largely Scomo’s reputation in the area. They had pinpointed Scamps as vulnerable because they quickly worked out she doesn’t have the political nuance like other Teals e.g. Spender and lacks a narrative that she could work with the Coalition/Dutton (who she regularly criticises online). I guess it’ll always be the challenge for the Teals to keep onside their ex Lib voters who don’t want a Labor govt.
Keep this seat high on your radar. I think the media will be watching it a lot closer soon.
Fun Fact – James Brown’s Campaign office is the Old Godfrey’s store in Dee Why.
That sucks…
Ok I’ll see myself out
news limited have given Tony Abbott some air time around the council rate rise issue
Out of the three Sydney-based teal seats, this would be the tightest I reckon.
The post-redistribution estimate is a bit inflated due to Zali Steggall’s personal vote in the newly-added parts – North Curl Curl and Killarney Heights.
Doesn’t Rory ‘s ex seat fall 8n this
Electorate
Mick, Rory Amon? Yes, it’s Pittwater which is at the northern end of the electorate.
for reference the state seats of Pittwater and wakehurst cover most of this electorate and are currently held by independents
The remainder is half of the state seat of Davidson – currently held by the Liberals and also the area that is likely to have the highest Liberal party first preference vote
Jeff Quinn announced as the candidate for Mackellar. Woo hoo.
*Labor’s candidate.