IND 3.3% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Sophie Scamps, since 2022.
Geography
Northern beaches of Sydney. Mackellar covers northern parts of the Northern Beaches council area. Major suburbs include Dee Why, Collaroy, Narrabeen, Mona Vale, Avalon and Frenchs Forest.
Redistribution
Mackellar expanded south, taking in Forestville, Killarney Heights and North Curl Curl from Warringah. Adding in the vote for Zali Steggall in these areas, it improved the independent margin from 2.5% to 3.3%.
History
Mackellar was created in 1949 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It had always been won by the Liberal Party with substantial margins, prior to 2022.
The seat was first won in 1949 by William Wentworth, grandson of colonial political figure William Charles Wentworth. Wentworth had previously polled 20% of the vote in the seat of Wentworth (named after his grandfather) as an independent in 1943.
Wentworth was a leading red-baiter in Parliament during the 1950s, although he remained in Parliament for almost two decades after winning Mackellar. He was close to John Gorton, and when Gorton became Prime Minister in early 1968 he appointed Wentworth to cabinet as the first ever federal minister with responsibility for Aboriginal affairs. Wentworth remained on the frontbench under Billy McMahon and served in the ministry until McMahon’s defeat in 1972.
Wentworth announced his retirement in 1977, but didn’t wait for the election to resign from the Liberal Party, after returning to the role of outspoken backbench rebel during the first term of the Fraser government. He ran as an independent for the Senate in 1977 and polled 2%.
Wentworth was succeeded in Mackellar by Liberal candidate Jim Carlton, who had served as the state party’s General Secretary during the 1970s. Carlton served as a minister in the final year of the Fraser government, and was a frontbencher in the Liberal opposition from the Hawke government’s election in 1983 until the 1990 election. Carlton retired from Parliament in 1994.
The ensuing by-election was won by sitting Senator and Liberal frontbencher Bronwyn Bishop. Bishop had been a Senator for New South Wales since 1987, and had been a prominent Opposition frontbencher, and had been discussed as a possible leadership contender. She played a prominent role in the opposition frontbench after winning the by-election, but her colleagues did not share her assessment of her leadership potential, and she was passed over in favour of first Alexander Downer and then John Howard.
Bishop was re-elected to seven full terms from 1996 to 2013. Bishop was appointed to a junior ministerial role after the election of the Howard government in 1996. She was dropped from the ministry after the 2001 election after a controversial tenure as Minister for Ageing. She was elected Speaker after the 2013 election, but was forced to step down in August 2015 after criticisms over extravagant travel expenses.
Bishop lost Liberal preselection to Jason Falinski in 2016. Falinski won Mackellar in 2016 and was re-elected in 2019.
Falinski was defeated in 2022 by local independent candidate Sophie Scamps.
Assessment
Mackellar is a very marginal seat, but Scamps now has the advantage of incumbency which will makes her the favourite to win re-election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Falinski | Liberal | 40,993 | 41.4 | -11.6 | 40.5 |
| Sophie Scamps | Independent | 37,724 | 38.1 | +38.1 | 38.5 |
| Paula Goodman | Labor | 8,162 | 8.2 | -8.7 | 8.4 |
| Ethan Hrnjak | Greens | 6,032 | 6.1 | -5.4 | 6.3 |
| Christopher Ball | United Australia | 2,881 | 2.9 | +0.6 | 2.9 |
| Darren Dickson | One Nation | 2,624 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.7 |
| Barry Steele | TNL | 575 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.5 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 3,884 | 3.8 | -0.9 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sophie Scamps | Independent | 51,973 | 52.5 | 53.3 | |
| Jason Falinski | Liberal | 47,018 | 47.5 | 46.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Falinski | Liberal | 58,012 | 58.6 | -4.6 | 57.9 |
| Paula Goodman | Labor | 40,979 | 41.4 | +4.6 | 42.1 |
Mackellar covers all of the former Pittwater council area and a majority of the former Warringah council area, all now contained in the Northern Beaches council area. All of the polling places in the Pittwater area have been grouped together as “north”. Those in Warringah have been split between “south-east” on the coast and “west” further inland.
Scamps won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.8% in the west to 57.8% in the north.
| Voter group | IND 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 54.7 | 22,687 | 20.3 |
| North | 57.8 | 19,073 | 17.1 |
| West | 51.8 | 15,909 | 14.2 |
| Pre-poll | 52.0 | 36,779 | 32.9 |
| Other votes | 50.7 | 17,413 | 15.6 |
Election results in Mackellar at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and independent candidates
Interesting. We probably frequent the same shops. However, I have not yet seen an Albo cap around here or anywhere else, other than on the ALP online shop.
I’m not sure if bazza means a cap supporting Albo or the “Make Albo Go Away” caps aping MAGA.
@Adda it was a pro Albo cap. Was a surprise to see one in the wild
I wonder if KK and Piers Ackerman appreciate having to leave Scotland Island to vote again..
why would they?
I think the Liberals will take Mackeller. The Teals isn’t popular anymore.
@mitch I think you might be right either way I think the libs will get close here. If Dutton is winning mackellar kooyong Curtin and Goldstein he’s likely almost pm as the crossbench becomes extremely narrow and very few mps left to help albo out.
Scamps volunteers were handing out flyers at the local sports fields on Saturday
Sunny Singh (independent Councillor for Pittwater Ward) announced he is intending to nominate as an independent and sounds like he’s automatically expelled from the Libs. This helps Scamps as the right vote is now splitting and being chipped away from the Libs.
https://www.northernbeachesadvocate.com.au/2025/04/04/singh-bombshell-shocks-liberals/
A large final field:
1. Lisa Cotton, Independent
2. Brad Hayman, One Nation
3. Ethan Hrnjak, The Australian Greens
4. Justin Addison, Libertarian Party
5. Amber Robertson, Trumpet of Patriots
6. James Brown, Liberal Party
7. Mandeep Singh, Independent
8. Dr Sophie Scamps, Independent and current Member for Mackellar
9. Jeffrey Quinn, Australian Labor Party
Why don’t the Libs ever pick someone who is actually from the electorate? They make it so much harder for themselves! No one I’ve spoken to even knows James Brown, including his ‘neighbours’ at Mackerel Beach. They say he’s never there. Pre-selection is such a joke here.
This is shaping up to be an interesting race as there are no objectively great campaigners in the race (although I may personally agree with some candidates more than others).
The preselection of James Brown shows the Libs continue to make the strategic error of picking people with internal party connections rather than trying to recruit a genuine local and let them run a local campaign. James says the same generic Lib talking points, isnt well known locally, and I hear some interesting rumours. It would seem the Libs are at leasr taking campaigning a bit more seriously now, rather than just assuming that the seat is their birthright.
Meanwhile Scamps’ camp for all its Climate 200 money doesnt seem to have much of a strategy, with Scamps scattergunning on random issues, with at times contradictory or poorly fleshed out policy positions. Certainly lacks the discipline of Zali’s campaign. The lower taxes messaging seems at odds with, say, more climate action or renationalising Northern Beaches Hospital – bit of magic pudding economics, or centrist populism. Leaving to one side the “heritage list all of Pittwater” brainfart with no detail on what parts of Pittwater actually have national heritage significance.
Sunny Singh continues his mission to be an aspiring Indian Australian Steve Bradbury of politics. Given his middling performance on the Council floor thus far, and presumable lack of ground game without the Libs to fill booths for him, the Libs are sure to be fairly pissed as he will take more primary from them than Sophie, but likely his preferences will go to the wind or be informals.
Indeed the number of right wing competitors will make this a tricker race for the Libs than Dr Sophie, who can rely on the left candidates having reasonable groundgame to direct preferences. While Trurmpet of Patriots will have its usual rent a crowd having out HTVs, but the resr of the RW candidates will likely have very patchy groundgame which may increase their informals.
Any which way its an interesting race insofar as I can’t pick the outcome – it will be tight. Its also a very uninteresting race insofar as the campaigning is very lacklustre.
I also think the rate rise stuff may hurt Scamps, who was rather silly in endorsing Your Northern Beaches without much due diligence. If her corflute on lower taxes and stronger climate action are her two key issues, she cant have done much research on YNB, as the rate rise was on the cards for almost a year before the election, and YNBs voting record on climate/clean energy issues is patchy. While she has sought to distance herself, I think the Libs have cleverly sought to capitalise on linking the Teals to YNB’s rate rise, as its something able to unite disparate right leaning and centre right voters. Perhaps Singh and Hrnjak may glean some benefit from having voted against the rate rises as councillors.
While every election is its own race, I see the outcome of the Council races and the Voice referendum as providing some recent bellweathers for the mood of the room in Mackellar.
Apart from being the ex-husband of Daisy Turnbull, it is astonishing how lacking James Brown is in local or Liberal credentials.
Based on my informal polling (friends and colleagues) a few of them tepidly voted for Sophie Scamps last time and are more firmly in her camp this time around. If a representative is connected with their electorate, shouldn’t a sophomore sing be in play?
+swing
Any information about mystery independent Lisa Cotton sitting in poll position? Have seen a few corflutes out for her in the last few days.
Website has no policy details, list her previous experience as parliament staffer and is preferencing Singh 2 and Libs 3 with Scamps last behind Greens and Labor
@Anonycat, I second your sentiments on this race, as a lifelong Mackellar local.
Lisa’s policies are vaguely progressive on some issues like social services funding, but conservative sounding on other issues like family, national security, etc.
@Anonycat, having attempted to research Lisa a little, I agree with your assessment.
She has a Christian worldview, and is experienced in chaplaincy. “Family, community and borders” she says.
Her preference is to put Sophie Scamps MP last on the ballot, because according to Lisa, she prioritises planet before people, which is not to Lisa’s liking. With this in mind, it is safe to assume that Lisa would have otherwise been a Liberal voter/preferrer.
@Politik My guess is if Fred Nile were still around, she’d fit in well as a Christian Democrat.
was toss up between her being an unofficial Family First/Christians candidate or Liberal party plant to try and direct preferences to the Libs from uninformed voters
There has been a lot of internal jostling for resources for Mackellar for the Liberal Partyn to the point where resources were being pulled from Lindsay to Mackellar, and then looks set to be re-routed to Bradfield.
On current trends, I think Scamps wins the seat, with a margin increase in vote equivalent to a sophomore surge
@Hawkeye – is the Liberal candidate here not inspiring the local members – or is the local membership fragmented due to recent controversies and a rogue independent standing?
It’s the former. The general consensus is that he simply showed up and State Exec pushed him in.
Try to leverage the “I married a Turnbull, I can win this.”
RIIIIIIIIGHT
Peter Dutton visiting Mona Vale with John Howard and Sussan Ley promising to return the Northern Beaches to the Liberal Party
Independent hold
Saw James Brown wandering around on his own at Warringah Mall today. He looked completely lost.
Meanwhile, there were a whole heap of Sophie Scamps T-Shirts wandering around as well.
The campaign has been dreadful and I’ve had so manly people ask me who James Brown is.
Best I could do: “Used to be married into the Turnbull Family…”
The most exposure James has got is from the poster of his that someone has covered up with the face of the original “Godfather of Soul” Jame Brown
@bazza:
Perhaps Brown coulod rebrand as Jim Brown, Cleveland Browns running back and later actor?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Brown
Assault allegations against Jim barely reach 2 pages, whereas the ol’ Godfather Of Soul, his adult life appears devoted to bashing women.
Bazza,
Simon Holmes a Court isn’t as confident as you.In the Australian today he is recorded as saying that he is “increasingly concerned” that Scamps,Daniel,Ryan and Cheney are at risk of losing their seats.
He is seeking more donations.
It could just be a cynical money grab and scare campaign on Climate 200’s part. Interesting data yesterday that their spend on Meta in Victoria was equal to Labor with the Libs far behind. The whole “we don’t have the resources of the big parties line” that is peddled by Deb Leonard and others is just a huge crock of s**t. Frankly, I would love to know where the money goes. I can’t see how it has been spent in Monash for example.
Expect Scamps to lead on primaries here with Lib vote splitting to the other independents and Labor not doing any campaigning. Final 2CP to be around the same as 2022
say my first Labor corflute of the campaign this morning on Mona Vale road