Mackellar – Australia 2025

Interesting. We probably frequent the same shops. However, I have not yet seen an Albo cap around here or anywhere else, other than on the ALP online shop.

I’m not sure if bazza means a cap supporting Albo or the “Make Albo Go Away” caps aping MAGA.

@Adda it was a pro Albo cap. Was a surprise to see one in the wild

I wonder if KK and Piers Ackerman appreciate having to leave Scotland Island to vote again..

why would they?

I think the Liberals will take Mackeller. The Teals isn’t popular anymore.

@mitch I think you might be right either way I think the libs will get close here. If Dutton is winning mackellar kooyong Curtin and Goldstein he’s likely almost pm as the crossbench becomes extremely narrow and very few mps left to help albo out.

Scamps volunteers were handing out flyers at the local sports fields on Saturday

Sunny Singh (independent Councillor for Pittwater Ward) announced he is intending to nominate as an independent and sounds like he’s automatically expelled from the Libs. This helps Scamps as the right vote is now splitting and being chipped away from the Libs.

https://www.northernbeachesadvocate.com.au/2025/04/04/singh-bombshell-shocks-liberals/

A large final field:
1. Lisa Cotton, Independent
2. Brad Hayman, One Nation
3. Ethan Hrnjak, The Australian Greens
4. Justin Addison, Libertarian Party
5. Amber Robertson, Trumpet of Patriots
6. James Brown, Liberal Party
7. Mandeep Singh, Independent
8. Dr Sophie Scamps, Independent and current Member for Mackellar
9. Jeffrey Quinn, Australian Labor Party

Why don’t the Libs ever pick someone who is actually from the electorate? They make it so much harder for themselves! No one I’ve spoken to even knows James Brown, including his ‘neighbours’ at Mackerel Beach. They say he’s never there. Pre-selection is such a joke here.

This is shaping up to be an interesting race as there are no objectively great campaigners in the race (although I may personally agree with some candidates more than others).

The preselection of James Brown shows the Libs continue to make the strategic error of picking people with internal party connections rather than trying to recruit a genuine local and let them run a local campaign. James says the same generic Lib talking points, isnt well known locally, and I hear some interesting rumours. It would seem the Libs are at leasr taking campaigning a bit more seriously now, rather than just assuming that the seat is their birthright.

Meanwhile Scamps’ camp for all its Climate 200 money doesnt seem to have much of a strategy, with Scamps scattergunning on random issues, with at times contradictory or poorly fleshed out policy positions. Certainly lacks the discipline of Zali’s campaign. The lower taxes messaging seems at odds with, say, more climate action or renationalising Northern Beaches Hospital – bit of magic pudding economics, or centrist populism. Leaving to one side the “heritage list all of Pittwater” brainfart with no detail on what parts of Pittwater actually have national heritage significance.

Sunny Singh continues his mission to be an aspiring Indian Australian Steve Bradbury of politics. Given his middling performance on the Council floor thus far, and presumable lack of ground game without the Libs to fill booths for him, the Libs are sure to be fairly pissed as he will take more primary from them than Sophie, but likely his preferences will go to the wind or be informals.

Indeed the number of right wing competitors will make this a tricker race for the Libs than Dr Sophie, who can rely on the left candidates having reasonable groundgame to direct preferences. While Trurmpet of Patriots will have its usual rent a crowd having out HTVs, but the resr of the RW candidates will likely have very patchy groundgame which may increase their informals.

Any which way its an interesting race insofar as I can’t pick the outcome – it will be tight. Its also a very uninteresting race insofar as the campaigning is very lacklustre.

I also think the rate rise stuff may hurt Scamps, who was rather silly in endorsing Your Northern Beaches without much due diligence. If her corflute on lower taxes and stronger climate action are her two key issues, she cant have done much research on YNB, as the rate rise was on the cards for almost a year before the election, and YNBs voting record on climate/clean energy issues is patchy. While she has sought to distance herself, I think the Libs have cleverly sought to capitalise on linking the Teals to YNB’s rate rise, as its something able to unite disparate right leaning and centre right voters. Perhaps Singh and Hrnjak may glean some benefit from having voted against the rate rises as councillors.

While every election is its own race, I see the outcome of the Council races and the Voice referendum as providing some recent bellweathers for the mood of the room in Mackellar.

Apart from being the ex-husband of Daisy Turnbull, it is astonishing how lacking James Brown is in local or Liberal credentials.

Based on my informal polling (friends and colleagues) a few of them tepidly voted for Sophie Scamps last time and are more firmly in her camp this time around. If a representative is connected with their electorate, shouldn’t a sophomore sing be in play?

+swing

Any information about mystery independent Lisa Cotton sitting in poll position? Have seen a few corflutes out for her in the last few days.
Website has no policy details, list her previous experience as parliament staffer and is preferencing Singh 2 and Libs 3 with Scamps last behind Greens and Labor

@Anonycat, I second your sentiments on this race, as a lifelong Mackellar local.

Lisa’s policies are vaguely progressive on some issues like social services funding, but conservative sounding on other issues like family, national security, etc.

@Anonycat, having attempted to research Lisa a little, I agree with your assessment.
She has a Christian worldview, and is experienced in chaplaincy. “Family, community and borders” she says.
Her preference is to put Sophie Scamps MP last on the ballot, because according to Lisa, she prioritises planet before people, which is not to Lisa’s liking. With this in mind, it is safe to assume that Lisa would have otherwise been a Liberal voter/preferrer.

@Politik My guess is if Fred Nile were still around, she’d fit in well as a Christian Democrat.

was toss up between her being an unofficial Family First/Christians candidate or Liberal party plant to try and direct preferences to the Libs from uninformed voters

There has been a lot of internal jostling for resources for Mackellar for the Liberal Partyn to the point where resources were being pulled from Lindsay to Mackellar, and then looks set to be re-routed to Bradfield.

On current trends, I think Scamps wins the seat, with a margin increase in vote equivalent to a sophomore surge

@Hawkeye – is the Liberal candidate here not inspiring the local members – or is the local membership fragmented due to recent controversies and a rogue independent standing?

It’s the former. The general consensus is that he simply showed up and State Exec pushed him in.

Try to leverage the “I married a Turnbull, I can win this.”

RIIIIIIIIGHT

Peter Dutton visiting Mona Vale with John Howard and Sussan Ley promising to return the Northern Beaches to the Liberal Party

Independent hold

Saw James Brown wandering around on his own at Warringah Mall today. He looked completely lost.

Meanwhile, there were a whole heap of Sophie Scamps T-Shirts wandering around as well.

The campaign has been dreadful and I’ve had so manly people ask me who James Brown is.

Best I could do: “Used to be married into the Turnbull Family…”

The most exposure James has got is from the poster of his that someone has covered up with the face of the original “Godfather of Soul” Jame Brown

@bazza:
Perhaps Brown coulod rebrand as Jim Brown, Cleveland Browns running back and later actor?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Brown
Assault allegations against Jim barely reach 2 pages, whereas the ol’ Godfather Of Soul, his adult life appears devoted to bashing women.

Bazza,
Simon Holmes a Court isn’t as confident as you.In the Australian today he is recorded as saying that he is “increasingly concerned” that Scamps,Daniel,Ryan and Cheney are at risk of losing their seats.
He is seeking more donations.

It could just be a cynical money grab and scare campaign on Climate 200’s part. Interesting data yesterday that their spend on Meta in Victoria was equal to Labor with the Libs far behind. The whole “we don’t have the resources of the big parties line” that is peddled by Deb Leonard and others is just a huge crock of s**t. Frankly, I would love to know where the money goes. I can’t see how it has been spent in Monash for example.

Expect Scamps to lead on primaries here with Lib vote splitting to the other independents and Labor not doing any campaigning. Final 2CP to be around the same as 2022

say my first Labor corflute of the campaign this morning on Mona Vale road

Scamps primary vote held while increasing here 2CP count.
The drop in Liberal primary seems to have gone to the ALP who increased their primary despite no ground campaign. (or perhaps Labor tactical voters from 2022 switched back while Lib voters switched to Scamps)

Former Liberal party member Mandeep Singh has less than 1% of the vote

despite a swing in the lower house against the libs here – they still got 49% first preferences in the senate
Labor got 29% in the senate and 12% in the lower house

The Libs got 39.37% here in the senate

sorry – my mistake – looking at the wrong column
Should be this in senate
ALP – 31.5
Green – 12.5

So on Senate TPP this would be a Labor seat? Wow.

still a lot of “others” to determine a TPP count – would be interesting to see when the ALP/Lib TPP is done. On primary vote the Libs dropped, IND and Green stayed steady and ALP increased – so either Lib voters switching to Labor or to IND with Labor tactical voters going back

I didn’t think it was possible for the Liberal Party to run a worse Federal Candidate for Mackellar than Jason Falinski… Then they found James Brown.

On-Day Voting, James Brown won 2 Booths vs Scamps – Belrose North (aka Belrose Public School) and Collaroy Plateau North (War Vets).

The booths with the worst swing against him were:
North Curl Curl (Curl Curl North Public School) – Swung to Scamps by 16PP
Killarney Heights (Killarney Heights Public School) – Swung to Scamps by 15PP
Dee Why East (St Johns Anglican Church) – Swung to Scamps by 13PP
All 3 booths are at the South Side of the Seat

On top of that, he lost every Pre-Poll except Frenches Forest.

If 2PP, I still think Liberal would have held on vs Labor but I think the Liberal PV would have been down below 45%, meaning that Brown would have been scrambling for preferences from the other independents to scrape over the line. Maybe 51% 2PP, marginally better than the result in Bradfield.

@Hawkeye_au I presume those two places were near Terrey Hills given that area seems to be staunchly blue and stayed blue throughout. All the polling places along the coast voted for Scamps in huge numbers, her majority increasing the further north you travel. Seems like the Liberal brand in general is now toxic along the Northern Beaches despite the naysayers talking about council rates and how Scamps and Steggall have been ‘invisible’ or ‘out of touch’ and that James Brown and Jaimee Rogers could get in on the basis of a small margin.

Tommo, it appears Brisbane has seen a different trend as it is the coastal parts (areas like Redcliffe and Redland Council) that saw the smallest swings to Labor in contrast to the more inland suburbs.

I guess this is because the coastal areas of Brisbane still have large numbers of retirees who are considered solidly conservative, unlike the Northern Beaches of Sydney which have more young professionals moving in.

@Tommo9 – Terrey Hills and Belrose North have a few retirement villages nearby which I reckon keeps the Liberal primary up

@Hawkeye_au – has there been much dis-unity or drop off in members in the Mackellar branches of the liberal party given the fall of Rory Amon and the run of former member Mandeep Singh as an independent

Looking at the booth results, Labor got primary vote swings to them across the board on postal votes and absent votes. Sophie Scamps was mixed on the booth swings whilst James Brown suffered swings all over.

Looking at the senate primary votes, the gap between the Liberals and Nationals group and ALP is much wider than in Bradfield, Warringah and Wentworth.

Hawkeye_au, you seem to be relying on the AEC swings for those booths and they are not reliable, particularly in the southern end. They wouldn’t be counting Zali Steggall votes for Scamps.

If you look at the booth map I posted a few days ago, I used my own estimates where I credited Steggall votes to Scamps then recalculated the 2CP based on preference flows.

In those three booths I have the swing as:
-Dee Why East – 6%
-Killarney Heights – 1%
-North Curl Curl – 1%

@Ben Raue. Ahh thanks for that. Yep I can definitely see that. The trend still stays the same that the swing was towards the south of the seat. The biggest swing was where Falinski appeared to still hold on at the last election, possibly a combination of Sophomore Surge and James Brown lack of ability to connect beyond the Narrabeen Bridge.

Either way, it shows how poor the Liberal Campaign was in the seat.

from 2022 it seems that the more suburban areas Frenchs Forest/Belrose/Cromer were more likely to stay with the libs but in 2025 they swung towards IND. Avalon was all ready an IND stronghold

Another case were the target demographic for Dutton missed the mark

Frenches Forest, Forestville, Belrose and Killarney heights tends to be the more conservative side of the Northern Beaches, all the way up to Terrey Hills. It is an interesting trend versus other sections of the seat.