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I dont expect much change in the region in terms of a Left:Right Split i expect it will remain a 3:2 Split in favour of the left. There was not much anti-lockdown sentiment here and i think the Labor brand is probably strongest here than any other Region as evidence by all areas in this Region having strong swings to Labor federally unlike the rest of the state. I think Greens may take the seat held by Legalise Cannabis i expect their brand to grow especially in working class CALD areas. There is signficant Muslim communities in Dandenong, the Narre Warrens and to a lesser extent Cranbourne which are te weakest areas currently for Greens so the gap. The Libs and Libertarians will compete for the last seat.
id say 1 liberal 2 labor. Liberal/LDP and LGC/Greens to fight over the last two seats. labor previously sent most of its excess to LGC and that pushed them too far ahead of the Greens if they do the same deal and theres no reason to believe they wont LGC will win it. Labor would probably rather deal with LGC then the Greens. LIB and LDP will be a tossup. though LDP could count on minor parties support.
@ John
I think Greens have a good chance to defeat LGC because their primary vote will increase in Muslim parts i am not sure if that is enough to overcome that Labor surplus may go to LGC over Greens.
it wont matter the labor surplus is too much it puts them way out in front. maybe once GVT are abolished. which is probably why the greens want them gone
kind o like the greens having a full tank of gas at halfway up the hill and the LGC have run out at the top of the hill. gravity will do the rest.
because theyre arent enough votes left (if any) to overcome the lead