Hawke – Australia 2025

I have a weird theory, and don’t shoot me down for this but hear me out. There’s two types of swings that we could potentially see in this election, and reflecting on the trends demonstrated by the WA election, I think the following could occur.

1) The Labor seats with the biggest margins will have the biggest swings, so that’s your Gorton, Calwell, Scullin etc, all of which have been solid red seats forever. On the other hand, seats like Hawke, Dunkley, Holt and Bruce which are on medium-ish margins aren’t going to see a massive swing, but modest ones to bring the margin down to marginal territory, whilst seats like Chisholm, Menzies, Deakin etc will likely see the smallest swings. The reason I say this is because given most of these seats are Labor held for eons, it suggests to me that even if the Labor brand is starting to lose its appeal, most people don’t trust the Liberals to the same magnitude. In fact some might think the Liberals are even worse than a Labor party on the nose. What they would do in those cases is that, given both sides seem to be level in terms of commitments, that they swing hard on primaries and those votes spray everywhere, and come back to Labor weaker on preferences, resulting in a bunch of seats turning marginal or only fairly safe. It’s done to give their MPs a shock and say ‘Hey, do better or else’.

2) This scenario is probably more probable. Marginal seats closer to the city such as Chisholm, could see a small swing but is probably more favourable to be retained by Labor. Why? Simply because Chisholm is now closer to Melbourne city where the Labor brand is holding up well in the inner-city/middle ring areas. Conversely, the further away from the city you get, in electorates like Hawke, Holt, McEwen etc, the bigger the swings get because the less services, infrastructure, public transport, utilities they get, the angrier people are, not to mention more families with mortgages, mcmansions amongst other things. It’s like in Perth, where seats like Bateman, Bicton and a few more Labor pickups saw a very small swing compared to seats like Butler, Joondalup, Wanneroo etc in the northern suburbs where they copped a belting because of their distance and thus lack of things that the city has.

Hope that all made sense.

It’s usually due to demographic changes. Plus seats that have been taken for granted by Labor wanting change and because the Labor party I shifting towards the elites formerly Lib party voters while the libs are becoming more appealing to working class voters. The same in the us with the democrats and the republicans

@Tommo9,
That appears to be what’s happening in Victoria, the Labor brand is seriously damaged in western, northern and south eastern Melbourne due to the feeling of being abandoned and cost of living whereby eastern Melbourne seems to be fairing quite well. In fact polling has Labor possibly picking up Deakin so we could see a similar thing like we did in the 2022 state and federal election Victoria the government improves in Eastern Melbourne but goes backwards or loses seats in other places.

Agree Tommo and John, I believe Australia is going through the same realignment occurring in other countries like the US where affluent voters in the inner-city areas no longer align with the conservative party due to its shift towards social issues. Conversely, those in the outer suburbs who are ‘blue collar’ or self-employed will back the conservatives instead of the left leaning party due to their focus on efficiency and red tape reduction.

@yoh and are voting on economc issues which labor has shifted away from

In Canada, the Conservatives was almost certain to win by a landslide and the Canadian Liberal Party was about the lose big up until Trump’s presidency and now Canadian Liberal Party made a comeback to go back to competitive (and even leading on most polls as of today) because of Trump and his tariffs alongside at the same time with Trudeau replaced with Mark Carney and decline of NDP. I wonder if Dutton loses, would Trump had be a factor on hindering his chance? (Although I expect the impact wouldn’t be as big as Canada for obvious reasons)

doubtful the polls have been pretty consistent and trump isnt much of a factor here.

Marh, a difference for Canada is that ‘unpopular’ leader Justin Trudeau stepped down and his replacement (Mark Carney) is seen as an outsider similar to Trump who can argue the case for nationalism better.

In Australia, Labor still has Albanese as leader who is not that popular. I believe the election will be close and that Labor will finish with roughly the same number of seats as the Coalition. Polling for Australia has barely moved (maybe a slight uptick for Labor) unlike Canada which saw a huge surge for the Liberal Party (ALP equivalent) there.

I think there is a small but steady trend in Labor’s direction since the consequences of Trump (and Dutton adopting some of his ideas) are being seen in the US, and this seems to be consolidating now that the campaign has started too.

It’s only small, but within about 2 months we’ve seen consistent 51-49 (to Coalition) polling turn into consistent 51-49 (to Labor) polling. One of the biggest turnarounds though has been Dutton’s approval ratings which have absolutely tanked.

By the end of the campaign if Labor’s 2PP is consistently polling around 52% and Dutton continues to decline, Labor could finish at least close to a majority possibly only needing support from 1-2 crossbenchers.

I think seats like Hawke, Bruce and Holt on those “medium” margins would be retained with moderate swings against Labor, while even seats like Chisholm on a much smaller margin could also be retained. If the polling trend continues, Labor could limit their Victorian losses to just a couple of seats (Aston & McEwen being the two most likely).

It will be interesting to see the distribution of different margins after this election compared to the past. Safe Labor seats are trending away from Labor, and safe Liberal seats are trending away from the Liberals. How many seats will there be on margins above 10%? Above 20? I would assume fewer than ever.

While trump may be a factor in opinion polling I don’t think he’s gonna be front of mind in people’s decision making at the ballot box its gonn a be “am I better off today then I was 3 years ago.” Ultimately it’s gonna be close with both parties to get around 68-70 Seats but if Dutton can win the majority of those teal seats back it’s gonna be in his favour to form govt with 2-3 crossbemchers. If the teals lose mackellar Goldstein Kooyong and Curtin Albo won’t have any chance of forming govt.

There will be fewer Labor seats on margins of over 10% and it seems there’s a convergence of margins. Pre-pandemic, Labor had many federal seats on margins of over 15% and Vic state seats on margins of over 20%. The biggest swings away from Labor at the 2022 Vic election were in northern and western Melbourne, mainly in safe Labor seats. Labor held up east and south of the Yarra and even flipped seats.

The most swingy will be traditionally safe Labor, outer-suburban electorates. There will be leakage mainly to minor parties and independents and so the preference flows will ultimately determine the final 2PP.

Statewide, there could be a big swing but the swings won’t be uniform.

This isn’t Vic labor vs Vic liberal. The reason they did so well was because Dan Andrews controlled the media machine and the Vic liberals were incompetent. Dan is gone and replaced by incompetent jacinta allen and the Vic liberals have found their spine. Albo is yet to g dragged down by Allen and Dutton has found his stride appealing to outer suburban voters. Albo is mainly playing defence and Dutton is on the offence. No way a repeat.

A lot of talk about Allan weighing Albanese down. Allan has a lot of problems on her side but if we’re going to apply state trends to federal intentions, Labor might swing out but hardly any of it are going to the Coalition on primaries, and the Liberals only really find a way to potentially catch a victory if preferences favour them, which isn’t always the case particularly in some of the outer suburbs where minor left wing parties like VS and left independents might gain more of that swing splitting everywhere.

I would not say the Victoria Libs have found their spine. They have nothing to offer at the moment, and neither does Dutton have a knockout blow that could make those seats in play. Everything is still up in the air. I know some would like to see the demise of Labor everywhere but being realistic I don’t see that materialising anytime this cycle.

Vic will swing harder then the rest of the country but whether that swing will be enough and in the right places is yet to be seen. All the polling ice seen has them competitive in labor red wall seats. But whether they can get over the line this time…

The fact is first term governments have lost 11 seats a tt least in the last 30 years and there is no reason for this to be any different. The only difference is that Albo has no backbench to burn.

Why would Victoria swing harder than other states?

Unpopular state government

@neither portal. Re why will Victoria swing further? Very high ALP vote at the last election. Secondly and more importantly a long standing and unpopular state government.

That’s why seats like corangamitr which is near 8% are being talked about

@Nether Portal,
A bunch of factors why this part of Melbourne will harder. Firstly, old government. No matter how good or how bad the electorate naturally tires as we have seen throughout history. Secondly, a sentiment that this part of Melbourne has been neglected by the current state government. Remember covid hit this part of Melbourne really hard and now cost of living pressures had just added another level of pain. Thirdly, this part of Melbourne’s infrastructure is lagging behind and the explosion of the population growth through here doesn’t help out. Finally, the political re alignment which we’ve seen around the world at the moment where centre left parties are doing worse with blue collar workers and pay check to pay check voters.

I think this seat will have the biggest swing to LNP in the Country. There is a perception of been taken for granted, explosive population growth and services not keeping up. It is mortgage belt. Both parties have commited to the Western Highway upgrade which is critical.

@Nimalan,
I agree with your comment.
This part of Melbourne has done it tough over the last 5 years and the anger that has being simmering for sometime might just boil over. From what I’ve heard the government is struggling here and I personally wouldn’t surprised if this seat flipped on the night. Dutton was in Victoria yesterday and has been hitting Hawke, McEwen and Gorton regularly throughout the campaign. I personally think that polices like 25c of petrol per litre will definitely cut through in electorate like this and the neighbouring seats like this.

@ SpaceFish
Agree, one point i always say is that Victoria is often a victim of its own success in terms of population growth. This area and Gorton is full of young families new housing estates. In that sense it is different from the Rust belt/Brexit country. The level of infrastracture/service is not keeping up with population growth. I was in Hawke/Western Fringe of Gorton on Easter Monday and i saw a lot of Ads by Liberals including on fuel excise. Also the Liberal candiate in Hawke is much better than Zahid Safi for example. The South East has had more infrastcuture delivered so i dont think there is the same level of Anger in Narre Warren compared to Caroline Springs eventhough both areas are quite simmilar demographically. One thing that may save Labor in Gorton is that there is a very high % of 18-24 age demographic as suburbs such as Caroline Springs, Taylors Hill were developed in the 2000s so the children who grew up their are often turning into first time voters and still living at home.

@Nimalan,
Interesting you say young people at 18-24 will help Labor, I would say young men 18-24 are likely to help to coalition get over the line because as we’ve seen in the USA, Germany and South Korea young men seem to be much more rightwing. I agree with on the candidates in these seats are much better quality and don’t appear to be accident prone.

@SpaceFish – unless young males significantly out number young females in this seat, the trend is still away from the Liberal party for that age group according to polls. Also the rate that young men supported Trump style right-wing politics was around 50/50 – which was much higher than females of the same age

Problem for Labor in this part of Melbourne is that the state ALP government has been promising these infrastructure upgrades for years and years (Melton electrification, Western Freeway upgrades, etc) and nothing has ever happened. The can always just gets kicked down the road until the next election.

I think there’s probably an element of cynicism hearing “Oh we’re REALLY going to do it this time” with stuff like this.

I agree with Mark above. It is the same issue in neighbouring Gorton. The Western Freeway between Caroline Springs and Melton is still a rural grade freeway with at grade junctions etc. There is calls for grade seperated interchange at Bulmans Road etc. There are also calls for new stations to be built at Calder Park (Sunbury line), Mount Atkinson and Thornhill Park. Palmers Road corridor is also an issue.

Mark/Nimalan, at least the Labor governments in other states are more ‘proactive’ with infrastructure development in the expanding outer suburbs. Examples would be Mark McGowan in WA with the new Yanchep and Ellenbrook rail lines and SA Labor with the electrification of the Seaford rail line.

@ Yoh An
I remember we had a great discussion on the Melton thread about this prior to the state election. To be Fair i dont think it as simplistic. For example
1. State Labor government of Daniel Andrews has duplicated the Melton line just before 2019
2. State Labor government of Daniel Andrews built Cobblebank station
3. Brumby government commenced building of Caroline Springs stations
4. Level crossings are currently being removed 2 in Melton including a new Melton station and one at Hopkins Road, Rockbank. works underway
5. As i write this level crossing at Calder Park (neighbouring Gorton) is being removed.
6. Level crossing in Sunbury has been removed (in Hawke)
7. Brumby government commenced Sunbury electrification before they lost power
8. Level crossings will be removed in Diggers Rest so by the time of the next state election Sunbury line will be level crossing free.
9. Metro tunnel will benefit Sunbury line (in Hawke/Gorton) and is needed before Melton can be electrified.

Fair points Nimalan about the fact that infrastructure developments for the outer suburbs in some of the larger states take at least a decade or more to progress and therefore such works will take place over the lifetime of multiple governments (often of different parties too).

Other examples of this ‘long term, slow’ progression include the Southwest rail link to Leppington in Sydney (originally conceived under Labor during the Carr/Iemma years but main construction took place during the Coalition’s first term under Barry O’Farrell) and also the Redcliffe Peninsula line in Brisbane (conceived during the Beattie/Bligh Labor government with construction occurring under the Newman LNP government and first term of Anastasia Palaszczuk’s government).

Therefore, when state governments do open new infrastructure projects a lot of credit has to go to the party that originally ‘started’ the whole planning process (as Chris Minns did when acknowledging the NSW Coalition as the party that originally developed the idea and oversaw the entire planning process behind the CBD and Bankstown metro line).

That was one minor criticism I had of Barry O’Farrell when he argued that the previous Labor government only built half a rail line (the Epping to Chatswood component of the Parramatta Rail link), forgetting that the Carr/Iemma government did a lot of background planning work for the Southwest Rail link to Leppington (including completion of minor infrastructure works as part of the Rail Clearways program which were integrated into the new line).

@ Yoh An

Thats why i said Victoria is often a victim of its own success. Victoria started to have a population boom around 2000 and a lot of it was concentrated in the Outer West. I do concede projects like SRL are a bad look here. However, i still think they are making progress. Next steps in my view after 2026
1. Remove level crossings at Thornhill Park, Rockbank
2. Build Mount Atkinson station after Hopkins Road level crossing has been removed first no need to wait for electrification for this
3. Build Calder park station need to wait for level crossing to be removed
4. Electrify to Melton but need to wait till Metro tunnel is done
5. Build Thornhill Park station in conjunction with electrification

Road Projects
1. Start Western Freeway upgrade to Urban Freeway has support from both parties. This is actually a Federal road it connects Melbourne to Adelaide
3. Build the Calder Park diamond interchange- has support from both parties,

will people in Hawke be turning to the Dutton LNP for better urban infrastructure?

At least with the LNP they might not have to keep paying for the affluent east to get even better PTV links and such

This seat is a very close race. I’d say theoretically this could be the safest Labor seat to fall if the swing is amplified here.

Still sure Labor should retain but it will be very, very close.

will be interesting to see where the “protest vote” goes here given that ON and FF are the only right-wing parties. In 2022 seems UAP/ON got around 15% primary with another 7% for an independent
Will that vote go to ON and flow at around 50/50 to ALP/LAB or will people be happy to vote directly for the liberal candidate

don’t know if the population here is inclined to support LC or FF in large numbers

Or will ON preferences flow at a higher than normal rate to the Libs – maybe not Green like rates but in the 65-75% range?