LIB 10.1%
Incumbent MP
Rowan Ramsey, since 2007.
Geography
Grey covers the vast majority of the geographical expanse of South Australia. Grey covers South Australia’s borders with Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales. It covers most of the coast of South Australia, including everything west of the Yorke Peninsula. Main towns include Port Pirie, Port Augusta, Port Lincoln, Whyalla, Coober Pedy and Roxby Downs.
History
Grey is an original electorate, having been created in 1903. The seat was first won by the ALP’s Alexander Poynton, who had been elected as a Free Trade MP in 1901, when South Australia elected its parliamentary delegation at large.
Poynton strongly supported conscription and followed Billy Hughes into the Nationalist Party in 1916.
Poynton was defeated by Andrew Lacey in 1922. Lacey held the seat until his defeat by Philip McBride (UAP) in 1931. Lacey went on to win a seat in the South Australian House of Assembly in 1933 and became Leader of the Opposition until 1938.
McBride held Grey for the UAP from 1931 until 1937, when he made a swap with Country Party senator Albert Badman, with Badman winning Grey and McBride taking Badman’s seat in the Senate. McBride held the Senate seat until his defeat in 1943, and then served as Member for Wakefield from 1946 to 1958, serving as a minister in the Menzies government.
Badman held the seat of Grey until 1943, effectively serving as a member of the UAP for his final years after the collapse of the Country Party in South Australia.
In 1943, Badman was defeated by Edgar Russell (ALP). Russell began a 50-year period of the ALP holding Grey except for a single election, and he served as a backbencher until his death in 1963. Jack Mortimer won the seat for the ALP in 1963, but was defeated by Liberal Don Jessop in 1966. Jessop only held the seat for one term, losing to Laurie Wallis in 1969. Jessop then won a seat in the Senate in 1970 and served there until 1987.
Wallis held Grey from 1969 to 1983, when he retired. He was succeeded by Lloyd O’Neil, who held the seat for the ALP from 1983 until his retirement in 1993.
The redistribution before the 1993 had expanded Grey to include rural areas to the west of Port Pirie and Port Augusta, after the seat had been limited to the immediate coastal strip for decades. This improved the position of the Liberal Party, and Barry Wakelin won the seat off the ALP at the 1993 election.
Wakelin held the seat until 2007, when he retired and was succeeded by Rowan Ramsey. Ramsey has been re-elected four times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Rowan Ramsey is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Grey is a safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rowan Ramsey | Liberal | 46,730 | 45.3 | -5.3 |
| Julie Watson | Labor | 22,068 | 21.4 | -1.4 |
| Liz Habermann | Independent | 11,613 | 11.3 | +11.3 |
| Tim White | Greens | 6,994 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| Kerry Ann White | One Nation | 6,452 | 6.3 | -2.4 |
| Suzanne Waters | United Australia | 5,781 | 5.6 | +1.9 |
| Peter Miller | Liberal Democrats | 1,427 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Richard Carmody | Independent | 1,332 | 1.3 | -0.5 |
| Tracey Dempsey | Federation Party | 721 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 7,674 | 6.9 | +0.0 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rowan Ramsey | Liberal | 61,938 | 60.1 | -3.3 |
| Julie Watson | Labor | 41,180 | 39.9 | +3.3 |
Booths have been divided into eight areas. There are four major towns in the electorate: Whyalla, Port Lincoln, Port Pirie and Port Augusta. Polling places in these towns have been grouped together.
The remainder of the electorate has been split between:
- Central – Barunga West, Copper Coast, Mallala, Wakefield and Yorke Peninsula council areas.
- East – Clare and Gilbert Valleys, Flinders Ranges, Goyder, Light, Mount Remarkable, Northern Areas, Orroroo Carrieton, Peterborough council areas, and those parts of Port Pirie council area outside of the Port Pirie urban area.
- Outback – Polling places in northern parts of the seat, including Coober Pedy, Roxby Downs and Woomera.
- West – Those polling places in the south of the electorate to the west of Whyalla.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in six out of eight areas, ranging from 50.3% in Port Pirie to 73.2% in the west. Labor polled 52% in Port Augusta and 60% in Whyalla.
The vote for independents ranged from 7.6% in the centre to 26.6% in the west.
| Voter group | IND prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 7.6 | 64.4 | 17,905 | 17.4 |
| East | 10.7 | 65.6 | 13,416 | 13.0 |
| West | 26.6 | 73.2 | 7,913 | 7.7 |
| Whyalla | 8.8 | 40.0 | 5,719 | 5.5 |
| Port Pirie | 10.6 | 50.3 | 3,968 | 3.8 |
| Port Lincoln | 25.9 | 58.2 | 3,671 | 3.6 |
| Port Augusta | 11.2 | 48.0 | 2,450 | 2.4 |
| Outback | 8.9 | 54.3 | 1,493 | 1.4 |
| Pre-poll | 12.7 | 56.0 | 28,742 | 27.9 |
| Other votes | 11.9 | 63.4 | 17,841 | 17.3 |
Election results in Grey at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and independent candidate Liz Habermann.
@Roger Roughead the ABC has already called Grey for the Liberals.
Yes Labor and Anita Kuss combined have a higher primary than the Liberals and Nationals combined but there’s obviously been:
A. Enough leakage from Kuss
B. Enough preferences from One Nation, the Nats and Family First AND
C. Enough true TOP voters (ones who didn’t follow the stupid advice of putting every incumbent last and actually went with their gut)
To re-elect the Libs and for Tom Venning to succeed Rowan Ramsey as the member for Grey.
Nether Portal no. They just did a routine labor/liberal distribution. I have seen it many times scrutineering. They were directed to do that. So “minor votes” are examined only as between Liberal & Labor.
So for sure the crumpets, Greens & National vote – all of whom preferenced direct to Kuss were not examined except as between Labor/liberal preference. Same for ON & the Wowsers.
It’s the Nationals Nether?
Incidently, I don’t hold a candle for this women at all but I do for competence.
At tonight
1. Crumpets, nationals & greens are directly preferencing to Kuss.
2. ON & Wowsers are directly preferencing Venning.
3. Here is the theory by the preferences:
a Crumpets 2250 (first out) + National 3000 but non donkey 2000 (next out) + Greens 5385 + Kuss 17376 = 27,011
b Bolton (ALP) 21556 + donkey Nationals say 1000 = 22556
c Kuss jumps Bolton
d Venning 33647 + ON 9311 + Wowsers 3391 = 46,349
e Kuss 27011 + Bolten 22356 = 49,367
Subject to postals etc it’s almost London to a Brick on & put down the glasses although preferences will jump around of course?
Fancy winning a seat with 18% of primaries would this be a record for HR?
@Nether Portal: I forgot to add that the flow of preferences is likely to be more “pure” because the sitting MP has retired.
According to WB Anita Kuss is likely to make the final count and is “a real show” when she gets there. Looks like this could be a late surprise.
In the 3CP count for Grey:
ALP: 7,763
Anita Kuss: 7,725
Kuss is behind Labor by 38 votes, how likely is it that there will be a 2CP between LIB and IND
If you look at the live blog, last night I estimated that the current sample of booths in the 3CP is biased against Labor. I expect they will easily make the 2CP.
Ben just noticed this. But the current 3CP is also biased against Eyre Peninsula & Nationals (their candidate is deputy mayor of Whyalla) & Greens who poll strongly in Whyalla. These are the preferences driving Kuss over Bolton. Still think Kuss will come second.