Cowper – Australia 2025

Thoughts on this seat? The teal is running a hard campaign but I’m curious to see what everyone else thinks the result will be.

@James Nationals hold. The south votes Nationals and the north voted marginally for the teal. The teal (Caz Heise) did best in Coffs where she’s from. Apparently she now has ads in the movies now though. I feel like that’s kinda overkill.

@np i doubt the coalition will lose any seats

Caz Heise is one of several teal independents who will be re-running this election.

It’ll be interesting to see if she or anyone of them will hold firm or improve their vote with more exposure and experience. She knows her weak areas but at the same time, Pat Conaghan knows his weak areas and strong areas. I expect Labor to run dead. Their votes may or may not flow to Heise.

I don’t think she will improve, it was very different three years ago.

We should start a tally of every seat where it has been mentioned that Labor will ‘run dead’.

Cowper above, Casey the other day and then are the seats where they will – current Teal seats plus Indi, Mayo then Bradfield, Wannon. It almost seems that Labor could ‘run dead’ themselves into oblivion? Who knows what it will do to their senate vote.

Labor ‘running dead’ or ordinarily Labor voters voting for independents to try and defeat the Coalition in unwinnable seats for Labor is the reason Labor’s vote is at a record low of around 30%. If not for all these seats it would easily be upwards of 35%.

That’s what I think is going on @Adam, and additionally the 2PP in teal/progressive independent seats is likely to still be one favouring the Liberals. Labor are in a stronger position than the polls suggest

There’s not that many seats where the teals are the clear challengers, and not that many voters who will vote tactically even though it’s enough in a few cases to turn the teal into the clear challenger. At most it can account for maybe 1% of the primary vote.

Where teal candidates have been successful the seats have either had LNP members who didn’t align with the views of the wider population or they said that they are aligned but when in government didn’t actually act that way

Good teal vote
Boundaries strange

What Adda wrote. The numbers don’t support it being the full difference between 28% and 35% that’s truely wishful thinking from Labor aligned people.

Apparently Conaghan is running ads with the Nats Port Macquarie By-election candidate

An article in the Saturday Paper shows that the Caz Heise campaign is confident of picking this up. The article even says that this seat is more likely to flip than Bradfield. Climate 200 polling shows a 2CP of 53/47 going the teal’s way.

Worth a read. It has seat polling for other seats though I take seat polling (especially ones with a political motive) with a grain of salt.

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/03/22/polling-shows-teals-support-growing-coalition-base

Yeah of the three most competitive regional seats independents are targeting (Wannon, Calare and Cowper) I’d say the ingredients are best for the IND here – growing cities and evolving demographics, a coalition primary already below 40%, and candidate that appears likeable and inoffensive

Surprisingly the AEF is putting Cowper as a really close race between the Nationals and Heise and recently I’ve been seeing a lot more people (including Anglo Election Insights) thinking Cowper could be a Teal gain

I’ve heard a lot about the campaigns in Bradfield and Wannon but not in Cowper. Is there any reason there’s a sudden burst of optimism specifically for Caz Heise and not for Dyson (or any other Teals, but mainly Dyson bc a lot of predictions I’m seeing put Cowper as Teal gain but Wannon as LIB retain)

In Port Macquarie there’s a lot of Nationals signs, as well as many Caz Heise signs and very few Labor signs.

@ NP
Caz Heise seems to be running strong campaign like AlexDyson in Wannon. A Climate 200 independent faces a tougher task here as there is a larger right wing minor vote such as ONP compared to Kooyong, Goldstein etc

@Nimalan I’m told her ads are everywhere like last time (at the movies, on TV, on signs) but that wasn’t enough in the southern end of the seat.

I’m gonna say Nationals hold with a swing to them. Haven’t driven through Coffs yet but in Port and Kempsey it’s mostly Pat Conaghan signs.

@ Nether Portal
I agree i think will be a status quo result in Cowper and Wannon.

Was recently in the seat. Seems to be a very active campaign by the Indy. Even an office in South West Rocks which was well staffed. South West Rocks is a town of about 6000 people so I am told.

@Nimalan yeah I agree, not sure about what it’s like on the ground in Wannon but still should be a Liberal hold.

@Mike South West Rocks is a coastal town near Kempsey. It’s pretty touristy but also not far from some rural towns (the largest being Frederickton) as well as some smaller coastal towns with campsites along Smoky Cape like Arakoon (where the old Trial Bay Gaol is, though the current local jail is in Aldavilla just west of West Kempsey). Hat Head also isn’t far, it’s a much smaller town but similar in that it’s coastal and touristy with campgrounds.

As as I’m concerned the independents have no hope the National Party will rule this forever on more. No hope for any other party
whatsoever not now, not in the near future, not ever. How people turn against their loyal national party that would be very nasty.

this is probably the most likely teal gain

Can has spent truckloads of money in this campaign, but I feel it may still not get her over the line.I suspect people are going to be wary of teals after seeing their voting record in parliament where they have predominantly backed the greens.
The underlying sentiment is towards the nationals, Rob Oakshot comes to mind when he backed labor and his rising star quickly lost its lustre.

This has the smallest Coalition vs teal margin. Wannon and Bradfield have higher Coalition margins. Wannon, especially north of Princes Highway, is more dependent on primary industries than Cowper is so the climate change message would resonate more in Cowper.

There’s a bigger field of candidates which has the potential to split votes for either side.

I thi k the bigger field.and higher position on the ballot should help the nats over the line

I’ve just spent a few weeks in this area. The support Caz Heise appears to have across a wide variety of demographic groups and regions reminds me a lot of Helen Haines in the seat INDI – which covers a similarly large physical area. Caz & her volunteers are very active and there are a lot of signs on private fencelines and it looks like a well planned and disciplined campaign

Caz might need to run up a score in Coffs or peel off a few extra votes in Port Mac suburbs, if she does either she will be elected – I would be surprised if she doesn’t get in here. Absolutely one to watch on the election night.

Preferences have fallen into line here. Both Labor & Greens are preferencing Heise – not each other. Question is did Heise max out here in 2022? Or can she go the extra 3%?

I drove through the north coast over Easter. The number of Caz Heise signs and particularly billboards was quite remarkable. I find it interesting that she’s chosen to use teal unlike many regional independents who’ve chosen other colours (orange is pretty popular) to separate themselves from independents in wealthy urban electorates.

Also worth noting that by taking in Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie, Cowper is significantly more urbanised than both Lyne and Page. Not exactly sure what difference that’ll make, but this is definitely a seat to watch.

i think this is the teals best hope of a gain and wil say its probably lineball if not favouring the teal. though id say she will be aone hit wonder after she sides with labor on a whole bunch of stuff

though the melbourne cup field and the nats being higher on the list might save them

In terms of generic coalition vs IND this seat strikes me as the most vulnerable to being flipped, but I am beginning to think the NATs are going to hold up a little better than the Liberals, this is lineball

I agree with everyone that this is a lineball game at this point. I’m reminded of Barnaby on Election Night 2022, stating on live TV that the voters were “ungrateful” for electing teals, whom he saw as just a bunch of women wanting to make a point, while “tossing out good MPs who had a future career ahead of them”. While I’m tipping the Nats to hold this time, the party may need to think about doing some soul-searching. It’s felt like they’ve largely been protected by these demographic shifts, but an ill wind is blowing unless they can moderate their message in some areas. As the comment above from 15 April indicates, some people think that the Nats have a god-given right to these areas, just as Barnaby felt that Goldstein and Wentworth belong to the Libs, and that kind of thinking is not especially pragmatic for a 21st century political party.

i think this might be a teal gain but it will be a one term wonder

@john no if she wins its a hold for 15 years.

Not if she supports a Labor minority govt.

I think everyone is assuming Caz Heise will win here.

Crime in Kempsey and surrounds could be a sleeper issue that allows the Nats to hang on, other than that it’s likely a narrow Heise win

Billboard/Corflute: Had a drive through here earlier this week. On the main roads around Port Mac, I didn’t see any corflutes or signage coming in. I did see a very small (2x corflute sized) banner on the Pacific Motorway for the Nationals at Coopernook at the Harrington Road Junction. Facing towards the side road and not motorway traffic. Surprised to find a Labor Billboard (Northbound) near Jericho Rd exit at Moorland and a nice big Trumpet of Patriots billboard just north of John’s River. I’d say Caz is focusing on her ground game than big billboards on the Motorway. Agree this is close but I’ll tip a tight NAT Retain.

@Politics Obsessed the Labor billboard will mean nothing, Moorland is one of the most conservative booths in NSW. In Comboyne, Johns River and Lorne, the right-wing minor parties outperform Labor. Used to live in Lorne btw. However all of those towns mentioned are in Lyne, not Cowper. I agree the Nationals will hold both though.

@NP you’re right! My notes for the area were combined. I was surprised Port Mac didn’t have a much signage.

As for the billboards, I was more making a note for comparison next election and curious for those away to see what’s been put out by the parties.

I was right, and yes @PO, the signage must’ve clearly been effective.

The Nationals have been re-elected in Cowper.

Congratulations to Pat Congahan!

Caz Heise has conceded defeat. The biggest shock for me is how the Nationals have actually had a small swing to them. Even in the best case scenario I was predicting a very minor swing to Heise but not enough to win. This is a trend I’ve noticed in the regional seats with a teal challenger.

@James I guess because people knew that if this had come down to a close election like people expected then the independents would’ve let Labor form government.

I’m curious whether we will see Caz Heise run in one of the NSW state seats overlapping Cowper in 2027? If she does I assume she will most likely run in Coffs Harbour or maybe Port Macquarie.

It’s not unprecedented considering Hulett made the jump from campaigning in the state seat of Fremantle to the federal seat.

She wont win port macquarie. That seat is so conservative its a nat v lib count.hats off to pat conaghan hes now 3-0 against teals and 3-0 total nice way to start your parliamentary career. The difference is she didnt have to rebrand she could just reuse all her material since the seats have the same name. Depending on what heize does next rime the nats could go hunting for new seats if they dont have to defend any. Calare is a waste of time. Perhaps paterson or eden monaro. Or another tilt at whitlam. Maybe throw some extra at Hunter.

her best shot would probably be oxley.

@Lurking Westie see @Darth Vader’s comment, sums it up pretty well. Also she isn’t from Port, she’s from Coffs. But nah I don’t think she’d stop Gurmesh Singh either.