Ballarat – Australia 2025

ALP 13.0%

Incumbent MP
Catherine King, since 2001.

Geography
Western Victoria. The seat of Ballarat covers the urban Ballarat area, the Ballarat council area, and the neighbouring Hepburn council area and parts of the Moorabool and Golden Plains council areas.

Redistribution
Ballarat was only slightly changed, losing a small area to Corio.

History
Ballarat is an original federation electorate, having existed since 1901. Throughout it’s entire history it has changed hands between the ALP and the Liberal Party (and its predecessors). The seat was officially named ‘Ballaarat’ until 1977.

Ballaarat was first won in 1901 by Alfred Deakin. Deakin had been a member of the Victorian colonial parliament since 1879, and was a prominent leader of the federation movement.

Deakin first served Attorney-General in Edmund Barton’s Protectionist government, and in 1903 became Prime Minister.

Deakin led the Protectionist party for the remainder of the decade, and served as Prime Minister from 1903 to 1904, and again at the head of a Protectionist minority government from 1905 to 1908. In 1908, the ALP (with a larger number of seats than the Protectionists) withdrew their support from Deakin’s government, and formed government themselves.

In 1909, Deakin’s protectionists merged with the Anti-Socialist Party to form the Commonwealth Liberal Party, with Deakin as the party’s leader. He became Prime Minister for a third time when Parliament returned in 1909.

Deakin’s Liberals lost power at the 1910 election. Deakin retired as Liberal leader before the 1913 election, and retired from Ballaarat that same year.

Ballaarat was won in 1913 by state Labor MP Charles McGrath. McGrath was re-elected in 1914 and 1917, but at the 1919 election he lost Ballaarat to Nationalist candidate Edwin Kerby by one vote. The result was declared void, and McGrath won back the seat at a 1920 by-election.

McGrath continued to serve as a Labor MP throughout the 1920s. In 1931 he was one of a number of Labor MPs to walk out and join Joseph Lyons’ new United Australia Party, and was re-elected that year as a UAP member.

McGrath retired in 1934, and the United Australia Party’s Archibald Fisken won the seat. Fisken held the seat for one term, and retired in 1937.

In 1937, Ballaarat was won by the ALP’s Reg Pollard. Pollard was a former state MP and state minister. He served as a minister in the Chifley government from 1946 to 1949, when the Chifley government was defeated. In 1949, Pollard moved to the new seat of Lalor, which he held until 1966.

Ballaarat was won in 1949 by Liberal candidate Alan Pittard. Pittard only held the seat for one term, losing in 1951 to the ALP’s Robert Joshua. Joshua was a fierce anti-communist, and left the ALP in 1955 as part of the split that led to the creation of the Democratic Labor Party.

Joshua came third in Ballaarat in 1955 with 23%, with both the Liberal and Labor candidates polling 38%. With the assistance of Joshua’s preferences, the seat was won by Liberal candidate Dudley Erwin.

Erwin held the seat for the next two decades, often coming second on primary votes and winning with preferences from the Democratic Labor Party who regularly polled strongly in Ballaarat.

Erwin retired in 1975, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Jim Short. Short was re-elected to the renamed ‘Ballarat’ in 1977, but lost in 1980 to the ALP’s John Mildren. Short was elected to the Senate in 1984. He served as Assistant Treasurer at the beginning of the Howard government in 1996, but was forced to resign in late 1996 due to a conflict of interest, and he resigned from the Senate in 1997.

Mildren held Ballarat for the ALP for a decade, winning re-election in 1983, 1984 and 1987, before losing in 1990 to the Liberal Party’s Michael Ronaldson.

Ronaldson served as a shadow minister from 1993 to 1996, and as a Parliamentary Secretary then a whip in the Howard government. He retired from Ballarat in 2001, reportedly due to ill health. He later was preselected as the lead Senate candidate for the Liberal Party in Victoria in 2004, and was elected to the Senate at that year’s election. He served as a Senator for Victoria from 2005 to 2016.

After Ronaldson’s retirement in 2001, Ballarat was won by ALP candidate Catherine King. She has been re-elected seven times, and has served as federal Minister for Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government since the 2022 election.

Candidates

Assessment
Ballarat is a safe Labor seat.

2022 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Catherine King Labor 43,171 44.7 -2.2 44.7
Ben Green Liberal 26,142 27.1 -4.6 27.1
John Barnes Greens 14,076 14.6 +5.6 14.6
Terri Pryse-Smith United Australia 3,693 3.8 -0.8 3.8
Rosalie Taxis One Nation 3,476 3.6 +3.6 3.6
Julia McGrath Liberal Democrats 3,216 3.3 +3.3 3.3
Alex Graham Independent 2,044 2.1 +0.9 2.1
Kerryn Sedgman Federation Party 682 0.7 +0.7 0.7
Informal 5,109 5.0 +0.8

2022 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Catherine King Labor 60,770 63.0 +2.7 63.0
Ben Green Liberal 35,730 37.0 -2.7 37.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the Ballarat urban area have been split into Ballarat south and Ballarat north. Remaining rural booths have been split into east, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 55.1% in the east to 69.4% in southern Ballarat.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.2% in the east to 18.4% in southern Ballarat.

Voter group GRN prim ALP 2PP Total votes % of votes
Ballarat South 18.4 69.4 12,712 13.2
Ballarat North 16.2 66.0 11,243 11.7
North 16.1 63.7 9,245 9.6
South 12.8 58.5 7,043 7.3
East 12.2 55.1 2,187 2.3
Pre-poll 13.2 60.8 37,734 39.2
Other votes 14.0 63.6 16,110 16.7

Election results in Ballarat at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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25 COMMENTS

  1. Labor retain. Catherine King is mega popular, as well as the continued demographic change making Ballarat more progressive and attractive to tree-changers.

    Also, does anyone know if there were any pre-poll locations in 2022 that took in more than the Ballarat Showgrounds? They had around 25000 people vote at that single PPVC over the pre-poll period, so I’m curious to see if any other single pre-poll in 2022 took in more votes than Ballarat Showgrounds did.

  2. Also just looked at the Voice results in 2023 and it said that 29751 people voted at the Ballarat PPVC for the Voice Referendum!!! Wow!

  4. @NP – Disregard my comment on the Ballarat PPVC during the 2022 election 😭. Turns out the Mount Druitt Library PPVC in Chifley took in 29517 votes during the entire period, making it the largest prepoll in Australia during the 2022 election.

  5. This seat is not in doubt. This is almost the reverse of Calare. Until Katherine King won this was a marginal seat.
    During the dlp split years Labor could not win here. When Bracks was premier Bendigo Ballarat and Geelong were marginal. But now no more and their overflow helps Labor win other seats

  6. Like the other regional centres in Victoria government jobs and the services industry has completely upended any primary industry or manufacturing which in turn is causing demographic shifts that are very much suiting Labor. The Geelong seats and Bendigo are no different. Safe Labor retain, 2-3% shift to the Liberals perhaps

  7. At the state government this is more pronounced. The state seat of Polwarth never won by Labor… is trending labor’s way… within 2 elections that seat will be alp held or hyper marginal.

  10. @mick it’s because they are effectively satellite suburbs of Melbourne. Leftwing voters moved there as it’s close enough to the city.

  12. Is there something going on in Victorian regional cities? There is the Bendigo boilover – even if the Nats don’t win it is a shake BUT so far there has been a 2.5% swing to the Libs in Ballarat BUT when going into the booths it seems to be centred in the city of Ballarat not in Daylesford etc. Should the Vic Libs put serious effort into Ballarat and Bendigo as they might deliver next year – a reverse of 1999 perhaps? Also not much of a swing in either Corio or Corangamite.

  13. Considering how both Catherine King and Lisa Chesters have strong personal votes, and have benefitted with progressive demographic change, these results are quite worrying. More for Bendigo, not too much for Ballarat.

    The Liberal candidate here was put in after the original one withdrew because of Section 44 I believe. Not sure of her campaign and reception but nonetheless to get a swing is quite impressive in these circumstances.

  14. Apart from Bendigo and Solomon, this seat had the biggest swing to the Coalition in the country. Anyone have any idea why? If the Nats can make big in grounds into Bendigo could they do it in Ballarat too?

    Nearby Corangamite also had almost no swing to Labor in contrast to most of the country.

  15. @Adam not sure. Maybe more focus from the Liberals than last time given they pretty much ran dead in Bendigo to let the Nationals take it?

  16. @ Adam
    I think Victoria was a stangant state with some exceptions.
    1. In South East Melbourne, Bruce, Hotham, Holt, La Trobe- i think Labor underperformed in 2022 due to anti lockdown backlash i think that is gone now and plus CALD vote against Dutton
    2. Calwell not clear who will win but Labor has got a 2PP swing to them. Palestine has meant Muslims have forgotton about lockdowns etc and have preferenced against the Coaliton.
    3. Aston, Deakin, Chisholm and Menzies all more affluent ethnic communities who would have feared Dutton. Aston boosted by popular incumbent and Labor actually making an effort
    3. Hawke, Gorton, Lalor, McEwan- neutral some reversal of anti-lockdown backlsh but not enough of a swing to Labor unlike SE Melbourne probably interest rates, COL and anger of local services. I think in SE Melbourne infrastructure has been managed better.
    4. Scullin no real change in Labor/Lib primary but RW minor party is high like in 2022 i think Labor is gradually losing 2nd/3rd generation Southern and Eastern Europeans as they become more integrated and upwardly mobile. Scullin would have some of the largest concentrates of Southern/Eastern Europeans in the country. It will not put Scullin at risk from the Libs in future as there is a growing non European component that will offset this trend.

  18. @Adam Durack, O’Connor, Flynn, Riverina and Canning all had swings larger than Ballarat as well. The swing here is more in line with a variety of other seats like Casey, Whitlam, McMahon, Scullin, etc. than it is the electorates I mentioned + Solomon and Bendigo.

    As for them, I imagine Durack and O’Connor were because of the live sheep export ban. Flynn had a sophomore surge for the incumbent and a neglected Labor campaign led by a candidate who only ran because she missed out on Capricornia’s preselection. Riverina’s margin was only lower because of the redistribution taking in parts of Eden-Monaro and their voting patterns seem to have merged into Riverina seamlessly. And Canning, I’m not sure? Maybe Hastie is well-liked and built up support while he wasn’t on the national Liberal campaign.

  19. I wonder if there could be a bit of a Kennett-style rural backlash. Regional Victoria held up well for the Coalition despite terrible performances elsewhere.

    Mallee – small swing to Nats
    Nicholls – an independent in the mix in 2022 muddies this somewhat, but seems basically no swing.
    Indi – small swing to Lib vs Independent
    Wannon – basically no swing vs Independent
    Bendigo – big swing to Nats
    Ballarat – swing to Lib
    Corangamite – basically no swing
    Corio – small swing to Labor
    Gippsland – small swing to Labor
    Monash – assuming Ind misses the cut, swing to Lib

    I do wonder if the COL plus lagging infrastructure has contributed to a feeling of the regions missing out vs Melbourne as in 1999. There are a couple of major infrastructure projects in Melbourne opening in the next few months, which may intensify the feeling.

  20. @Mark Mulcair You would think having a Premier from regional Victoria would help Labor in 2026.

  21. @Laine: Labor’s live sheep export ban would have also hurt Labor in Canning, since Canning contains some rural communities like the Shire of Waroona and Shire of Murray where many people will be adversely affected by the live sheep export ban.

  22. There’s really not much left for Labor to win in Victoria on the federal level. They’ve got all but two seats that are entirely in Melbourne and those two are Goldstein and Kooyong.

  23. Bendigo is not regional voc its bascially a satellite city of melbourne. Jacinta allen is hated even in bendigo. She will be lucky to hold her own seat

  24. @ NP
    I doubt Labor will ever win Flinders or Monash even if the state Labor government was popular. Obviously, Labor is not going to win Wannon or any of the 3 National held seats or Indi that is just comical if i suggest that. While Casey is a marginal seat it is a seat where sitting member factor is important and it is a very varied electorate and Labor has not won it since the 1984 expansion of parliament. You need a perfect storm of circumstances for Labor to win Casey. It is very Anglo seat so Labor cannot rely on ethnic communties to flip the seat.
    The only other seat is La Trobe which is a longer term prospect due to population growth and ethnic diversification. Labor would not have won on the current boundaries in 2010 but they may have overperformed that result as well

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