Werriwa – Australia 2022

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  1. 2 months ago I thought this would be a very close race. But now with the botched COVID situation in Sydney this will be a Labor hold by a decent margin.

  2. I think there were a number of seats that were doubtful for Labor before this outbreak of COVID, however that has all changed. MacArthur, Parramatta, Greenway were others. But now there might be some doubtful for the Liberal Party – Bennalong, Reid, Lindsay

  3. James
    Not a chance of labor getting any of those.

    Ann Stanley is arguably the most useless of the “Emily’s Lister) Labor women. Another ineffectual type 9 fixation, that will quietly occupy the seat of Werriwa, & never challenge anyone, or anything. Just do as she is told. Complete waste of time.

    Werriwa will change beyond recognition in the next redistribution. It could even get drawn as far south as Campbeltown. I expect Ann STANLEY to lose another 2-3 % of her margin. The only interesting thing will be how the western suburbs (west of M7) move. These will be in a liberal seat in 2025. What that seat is, or will be called who would know. I’D expect the eastern boundary of this (liberal seat to be Smithfied rd/ camden valley way , M7,M5 with boundaries to Lindsay, werriwa , macarthur? Probably it might end up being McMahon

  4. It’s interesting how much this seat has moved right over time. Labor’s margin here (on current boundaries) is the lowest it has been in living memory.

    Appears in particular a lot of demographic change/development in the suburbs west of the M7/Cowpasture Road. But Labor are even underperforming somewhat in the more working-class booths. Those could shift left in 2022 with a candidate more appealing to the Sydney working-class than Shorten but the days of this seat being 65%+ Labor are probably done.

    Longer term (like post-2030) I’d think we’d see those new west booths become an entierely new seat altogether. 2025? I think we’d end up seeing everywhere north of Camden Valley Way move to a “new” Liverpool area seat (I think Hughes will move towards being a primarily Liverpool LGA with some booths in the westernmost parts of the Shire) and Werriwa be largely the Campbelltown area corridor with a few new west-of-M5 suburbs. That actually would be a safer seat than the current one most likely, though still not ultra-safe.

  5. wine diamond – I agree with you comment on Anne Stanley – I wonder how she is still holding the seat, considering it was once a very safe seat and should have had a potential Minister / Leader in the seat.

  6. WD
    If Perrottet gets control and takes Sydney out of lockdown too early leading to the health system being overrun, then Labor will win all the seats James discussed and more.

  7. Marko
    No chance of that due to factional control . Remember “those factions ” that you have when you don’t say you have factions !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.

    It always nice to find common ground ain’t it. Indeed.- why do party’s put plough horses in the best paddocks !? If ever there was a plough horse, actually Annie is more os a donkey!. Even a mule like Fiona Phillips has some strength.
    Ah the Emily’s Listers what a case they are making AGAINST “equal representation”?

  8. If Sydney ends up in a prolonged lockdown Gladys may be removed by some in her own faction who are frustrated by the long lockdown.

  9. If you really think that, then you don’t understand NSW. Apart from being political suicide to remove a leader in the midst of an unprecedented crisis, the NSW Libs are dominated by moderates (i.e. members of the same faction as Gladys). Perrotet is a member of the hard right and will never have the numbers to be rid of Gladys. His only path to power is to wait his turn – as per the deal that was agreed when he was made Treasurer. Besides, I don’t think Gladys is in any real long-term danger. How long did it take Andrews to politically recover from one of the longest lockdowns in the world? In fact, I don’t even think he fell behind 2PP during the lockdown.

    Even at a nadir for the Coalition in NSW, I severely doubt Labor’s chances in Bennelong, particularly with John Alexander as the MP. Lindsay and Reid are only slightly less fanciful targets for Labor. Morrison is copping a bit of flack now, but will it last?????

  10. I don’t think this scenario will eventuate. I am just thinking that if it did the libs would get whacked with a baseball bat. I think Sydney will be a stasis where no seats change hands (except for an indie in Wentworth possibly)

  11. James
    Warringah & maybe Greenway are toss ups. Only dark horses after that. Wish it weren’t so

    Marko Wentworth see thread but NO
    Wreathy of Sydney
    Spot on as usual mate. Agree with every word you have written

  12. Who in the NSW government opposes the lockdown? I have not heard even a hint of anything to suggest that anyone in the NSW Liberal caucus opposes it – quite the contrary.

    Perrottet has been chief among those urging the federal government to reinstate JobKeeper. In the context of the COVID crisis, he may as well be considered a moderate!

  13. I’d love for Labor to lose a seat formerly held by one of the worst prime ministers in Australian history but ai don’t see it happening under current circumstances but I agree it could be in play if covid eases and the vaccine rates are above 80% by the next election.

    As for why I think Whitlam was a poor pm, mainly because he rushed change way too fast and he ruined the economy. He shouldn’t have been dismissed as he was democratically elected as PM and the senate shouldn’t get to decide who is pm. I believe the ‘75 election was a gold standard election and was a great outcome for the Australian people. I still retain hope a 1975 result could happen in the distant future but probably not 2022.

  14. Predicting Werriwa will fall and a 1975 election-style wipeout of Labor across the board (at this point in the election cycle) is bad partisan psephology. Also concerning is winediamond referring to certain Labor MPs (presumably affiliated with Emily’s List) as “mules”, which despite the fact I’m not a woman, is incredibly misogynistic and really does continue the form of certain right of center-right Liberal supporters in terms of the misogyny

  15. 1975 was a confluence of unique circumstances which will almost certainly never happen again. You had the onset of stagflation, an inexperienced government, a politically courageous Opposition and Senate majorities all at play. Besides, if you’re looking for the gold standard, 1931 was much worse for Labor.

    Right now, the best result I would expect for the Libs is a 2001-style victory with around 80 seats.

  16. Ryan
    WD junior was quick to agree with you, give me (the usual !) puritanical lecture, judgement correction, & instruction in his usual loving & tender way !!. His prevailing narrative (toward me) is along the lines of “old, out of touch, wrong ” & so on !!. Just thought you would like the confirmation.

    I would remind you that there are just as many MALE mules, as Female. Indeed i can’t recall any reticence on my part in making comparisons of MALE MPs of both sides to many farm animals, & wildlife. “Equal opportunity” cuts both ways chum, especially regardless of political persuasion ! I fail to see why female MP’S need some special exemption, or dispensation, unless you consider them “the weaker sex”. Hang on, wouldn’t that be sexist too !?
    Having spent 37 years with 2 powerfully(perhaps even ferociously) feminist women,” REVERSE Sexism” is a reality, & bears due scrutiny
    cheers WD

  17. It is interesting to note that Anne Stanley is not a member of Emily’s list.

    WD – reverse sexism is a significant reality. Cost me more than one job so quotas can be achieved. There are some great female leaders however, the poor ones who got there on quotas let these good ones done.

  18. James
    I’m shocked. I’d have expected (& it seemed ) that signing the Emily’s list was mandatory, for all female Labor MP’s, if not members.? What a surprise. After i noticed (with disappointment ) that Julie Owens (a “Thoroughbred”if ever there was one”!) had signed i stopped checking, & made the assumption.

    Sorry to read of such injustice being so commonplace, & personal for you.. I was just being playful but it’s a sad reality for some.
    The best chance of Anne Stanley losing this seat is if Michelle Rowland loses Greenway & is “relocated”!.

  19. Rowland lives in Glenwood IIRC. So probably would want to stay in Greenway. I’d be curious to know how many MPs actually live in their electorate.

  20. Nicholas Weston
    Glenwood eh. in reality do MPs need to live IN their electorates to represent them ? A lot is made of this, but is it a reality ?
    I kid one of my friends that lives in Baulkam Hills that she lives in the “whitest, most middle class suburb in the whole of Australia”. That you could transport the whole suburb in entirety to (the appropriate area) of any other (major) australian city so seamlessly you wouldn’t even see the stretch marks !
    eg CHAPEL HILL Brisbane , scoresby MELBOURNE, magill ADELAIDE, Perth Victoria Park?. Someone can have a crack at closer comparisons.
    My point is that if Rowland wants to continue her career it hardly a stretch to find a similar locale in the Liverpool -Campbelltown area. When i lived in the USA it was pretty wild that most americans my age ( 35) had usually lived in up to 6 different cities. A much more mobile & competitive society. Compare that to the trauma most aussies go through just moving interstate once !. We really are getting soft as a nation, don’t you agree?
    cheers wd

  21. You have a point, and there are probably much more significant characteristics of politicians that make them incapable of representing their constituents. Rowland would be an effective Member for Werriwa if she made the switch.

    One could argue that there are issues that are local to an area, not just demography. I imagine it helps logistically to live in one’s electorate. I am reminded of Dominic Perrottet’s (sorry to mention him yet again in this thread) discontent with having to represent Hawkesbury due to how far he had to travel. (Beecroft to the Hawkesbury is really not that far at all! Of course, there were ulterior motives at play.)

    Greenway and Werriwa are indeed very similar electorates. Both outer metropolitan, both a mix of established low SES suburbs and new middle-to-high SES suburbs.

    As for Baulkham Hills, I’ve lived in The Hills and can tell you that your friend’s characterisation is not quite accurate, to say the least. Data from the census certainly does not back it up.

    I seem to be an exception in that I’m in my 20s but have lived in three different cities. And I wouldn’t discount the possibility of a fourth or fifth. Times might be changing given the housing market and the rise of work-from-home.

  22. my local MP is Steve Irons and he lives in Melville, a suburb almost 10 kilometres away from the western end of the electorate (Swan)

  23. Nicholas Weston
    The census data was a little surprising However i don’t think i’ll stop teasing my friend !! .Sounds like you will have an interesting life with that much movement. Perrotet is annoying but so are most of the nsw libs. The ego passion of the type 3 is VANITY, Dom, the PM, Tanya et al all express the same thing in different ways. Thereby causing different intensity of irritation. At least for me. Hopefully that explanation might be helpful ? I’m not a Morrison hater, but at the moment he is pissing me off so much i can’t watch him, even with the sound off !!. Bad isn’t it.?

    Michelle Rowland has accomplished something almost unique . My opinion of a politician has turned round
    180 degrees!!. My opinion of her. So i agree she is one of the most deserving of MPs. anywhere. More on the Greenway thread.

  24. The best thing to say of Anne Stanley was that she was a very effective councillor on Liverpool Council. She would make a better candidate for Mayor than Nathan Hegarty who is running this time around. Her ability as a Federal MP is up for debate. Even a past his prime Paul Lynch would have been a more viable candidate. I find it quite extraordinary that Anoulack Chantivong and Charisma Kaliyanda were not considered for this seat before Stanley, considering from memory, that they all have links to the Ferguson-Lynch faction.

    As for Werriwa itself, it’s not in danger in 2022. The next redistribution could change everything though.

  25. Hey Daniel, no body on here cares about your views on Gough Whitlam’s prime ministership, nor do we care that you would love to see a seat held by him fall to the Libs. The point of this website is to discuss elections, not one’s own partisan political views.


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