Warringah – Australia 2022

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29 COMMENTS

  1. This seat will be an interesting battle. And I’ve read that Liberals are not optimistic that they will be able to dislodge independent Zali Steggall. Scott Morrison tried to recruit a star candidate in former NSW premier Mike Baird for the seat but he has refused to contest. The seat is traditionally conservative, however, the Nationals banging on against the issue of climate change may not go down well with voters who do share concerns with Steggall about the environment. Steggall was also able to gain traction from voters who grew tired of former member Tony Abbott and felt he had outstayed his welcome. She won’t be able to rely on this component this time with the Liberals getting a new candidate.

    This seat will be an interesting one to watch.

  2. The Liberals’ best bet is to go full grub and promise to turn the pork faucet on the sole condition that the seat elects a Liberal member. To be fair, the UK Conservatives have had a lot of success with those sort of tactics. But otherwise I suspect she’ll hold it. Even on Lib/Lab 2pp this seat swung 9 points against the Coalition. That to me is more than just temporary dissatisfaction with any particular party bum on the seat, even if he’s a former PM.

    Compare Wentworth’s results between the 2018 by election and the 2019 federal election. Sharmer won on what was less than a 4 point swing. Zali has a much bigger buffer.

  3. It also helps Steggall is basically an old-school wet lib – somewhat center-right on pocketbook matters but liberal on environmental/cultural ones. Unless the Libs can find a star candidate I think she’ll be pretty hard to dislodge.

  4. John Ruddick is
    Author of a book about modern liberalism, has resigned from the Liberal Party, & joined the Liberal Democrats. He will be running against Zali. Will the libs do something clever & run dead…..?
    Nah !.

    Morgan
    Wake up mate. Zali has no allegiance, conviction, or devotion of any kind . Other than to her own ambitions, & winning in whatever way is most efficient. She is just yet another Achiever/Performer type 3 Fixation. Even her own family branded her as “OPPORTUNISTIC”. They had to retract quickly because she had ,(& used her) leverage . Apart from self promotion what exactly has she done ? Has she even done that well ?
    “Wet Lib” !? Centre right !? Geez !!

  5. Maybe Julia Baird from the ABC (The former premiers sister) could run here for the libs. It’s not unusual for ABC journalists to run for politics just look at Maxine Mckew. Baird would have the family name recognition. Other possibilities is Christine Forester (Abbotts sister who would be seen as a much better fit for this seat) and maybe Barry O’farrell. Lucy Turnbull,Alex Turnbull or maybe even Malcolm himself could also run here and win!

  6. PN
    Mostly agree with you. However….
    “The seat is traditionally conservative” NO. Clearly it has 3 very different components. Ben has identified them clearly, & they have very different agendas. South of the spit is rich privileged, elitist. They weren’t just bored with Abbott, they felt embarrassed, even diminished by him.Plus it was cool, new different, even hip to be able to tip him out.
    Manly is young , hip, & happening. The Greens have a huge vote here, & have won booths frequently. Abbott never did well here.
    North –middle class suburbia, & some beaches. More mixed Zali actually didn’t do nearly as well here.
    The biggest factor is that Getup ! won’t be spending 2/3rds (was it $10million ?) of their budget campaigning against Zali’s opponent'(s)
    I don’t know whether the climate change catastrophism will be influential this time. Instinctively perhaps some signs of fatigue & scepticism may emerge here ?. Suggesting Nationals behaviour may have influence here is really quite a reach !!!. You might remark “Even for you WD”!. I doubt even Barnaby’s worst excesses could raise much notice, even interest here!!
    cheers WD

  7. My seat here, I think people can agree the liberals will get a swing too them just the question is the extent of the swing. Where I live in Mosman Zali did open a second office along Military Road as what I can think would be some worry around this part of the electorate potentially due to some poor internal polling. The liberals might just fall short and only get 5% or so of a needed 7.2% due to parts of Manly I don’t think swinging a whole lot.

  8. Pez
    i agree. What do think about Warringah moving into N Sydney or McKellar for 15000 voters ?

    Comparisons between Warringah, & Wentworth are pretty silly IMV. Kerryn Phelps got ELECTED in a by-election, in a clear run against a fresh candidate. Zali ran against a long term incumbent in a general election. Ver different scenario’s .

    Phelps had no defence against 3 things
    1 she is not a nice person !
    2 she is out for herself, & couldn’t give a rats about anyone else.
    3/ she will do & say anything to win
    After about 1 year enough people had worked this out for her not to get a sophomore swing.

    To be fair perhaps not all of those 3 things apply to Zali. However it is fascinating that no one is predicting a sophomore swing. Just observing thats all!.

  9. It would make some sense to put all the north shore and beaches in 2 seats each but im not sure on population numbers for each electorate and how it can work. I believe the north west if there’s a new seat added will probably get one but we will have to wait for that.

    In terms of Warringah itself obviously as a young adult and liberal voter I would like to see the liberals win but I just feel their chances in 2025 will be a lot better the main aim would definitely be to get a nice swing to help set that up. Zali honestly I see as a lazy member and really only sits around Manly where her main base is, havent honestly seen her in Mosman at all since Election Day and believe her second office which is very unusual for small electorates is all for show. There is no way she gets a swing towards her though 2019 was as high as it’ll get for an independent.

  10. There’s two options for Warringah at the next redistribution. The most likely is that Warringah will expand to encompass nearly half of North Sydney LGA. The other is that it will move up the coast, with Mackellar gaining parts of the Upper North Shore. What impact would these scenarios have on Steggall assuming she holds on this time?

  11. Pez
    I commented about this in the N Sydney thread. Major work needs to happen electorally. Is Zali lazy, or just invisible, & ineffective?. I believe voters act against their own best interests rarely , however this is a fine example. Warringah voters rejected an influential ex PM , for flaky failed lawyer. How many regret it ?
    cheers wd

  12. Nicholas Weston
    Indeed. Either scenario would present Zali with greater challenge. I believe she will agitate for minimal change- a move further into N Sydney LGA. This is a far more “woke” image conscious & electorally volatile area. This is perfectly illustrated by residents such as reigning Olympic class national champion wanker Peter Fitzsimons !. He probably thinks Zali is a visionary.

  13. @winediamond

    Would also mean that Warringah would lose parts of the Forest District, where Steggall performed the worst. But perhaps this result is attributable to the fact that Tony Abbott lives in Forestville.

  14. Winediamond
    I believe Zali is a bit on the lazier side as I think she really just sticks to the manly side of the electorate and doesn’t seem to venture out much. Her base is very interesting too I feel it’s mostly Karen type females as a harsh way to put it, young people too I guess mainly women as they saw her as the one to defeat Tony but also a lot of those left leaning climate boomers which I’m not sure whether they stay with her or give Labor their first preference again, either way she will get it pretty much back in preferences. The libs will win the primary vote this time cause honestly it can’t get worse then 39% and will probably get a 44-45% range I’d say where they will be needing 46.5%+ normally.

  15. Thanks to everyone for all the comments. I am enjoying the banter on many seat profiles! I’m commenting on Warringah as I recently had come across my Facebook feed an advert for “Our Future Warringah”. The website being: https://www.ourfuturewarringah.com.au/ . DISCLAIMER: I am not endorsing this movement in any shape or form. (EDIT for Ben: feel free to remove website address in moderation if not meeting comments guideline and change wording to ‘they have their own website’. and then delete this edit, thanks)

    I am merely curious that there’s an outfit actively to seek to gain traction and thought it related to the above comments talking about possible challenges to Zali (whether Lib, LDP or otherwise). [As it seems to have been recently set up live, within the past 2 weeks.]

    Interestingly, I cannot find an individual or group that endorsed this page but notice Climate Change is one of the 4 key part of ‘Our Vision’ for Warringah. Their ‘Initiatives’ part of the website is broken, and very basic in information, but the display is well polished. Although on the main page it does quote to “put political pressure on our current federal member for Warringah,”. Whether this outfit morphs into raising a candidate (a la Hughes) remains to be seen. Does anyone else know anything further? All I can is, it looks like Warringah is heating up!

  16. The domain information lists Chris Clark, the Trustee for the Ryan Parker Trust as the owner. The Ryan Parker Trust is a Discretionary Trading Trust based in Brisbane. That combined with the nondescript ‘we kinda just want stuff to be better’ waffle gives me shady, dark money sort of vibes. But it could be anything.

  17. Correction: Chris Clark is the registrant, and the trust he runs owns Thirteen Digital which makes websites. So he could have just made the website on behalf of _someone_. Strange nonetheless.

  18. My seat – live just around the corner from PEZ. Zali’s office is very prominant on the intersection of Military and Spit roads (two major roads). Very good location as the traffic snarls at the mean that the punters have to sit there and look at Zali’s image.

    My feel from the ground is that Zali will be returned. She hasn’t done anything substantial (she still manages to get some federal money for community matters and advertises this through the Mosman Daily (local newspaper which is actually read). That said, the punters in Waringah aren’t generally thinking about what Government can do for them as they pay “all the tax” that is then transfered to other parts of the country. So the less a member is doing the better as it allows the punters to get on with their life without Government interference and hopefully lower taxes. The imposition of the boarder lockdown (can’t go to ski trip in the US – look at the number of cases in Mosman early last year which I understand were a consequence of a large number of people going to the US for their ski trips….) and the slow rate of vaccination leading to the current lock down is not going to assist the liberals. Especially when the punters can’t go on their European / US summer trip and these areas are opening up big time with vaccination rates above 50%….

    For Zali to lose (or the liberals to win depending on your point of view) the liberals need to run a “celebrity” candidate. The people I hang around with think Mike Baird or Gladys would win. I haven’t heard Christine Forster or Julia Baird’s names mentioned but these are “B” Grade celebrities compared to Mike or Gladys. A liberal party “hack” won’t entice enough voters back to the fold as the hack won’t give enough punters a reason to change back – look at Indi and Mayo which have not reverted to the Libs as good comparisons.

    It will be interesting to see if there is leakage in the senate vote. At the last election Abbott’s primary vote fell significantly but the coalitions senate vote was only down about 1%.

    Zali to (easily) retain absent a Mike or Gladys candiency.

    Also will the National’s run given there is no sitting liberal?

    Cheers

    Pollster

  19. I honestly think this seat could become competitive for Labor or the Greens in the future. The 2PP LIB vs ALP at 2019 election was a margin of 2.12% for the Liberals. This is exceptionally troubling even with the presence of an Independent, in the 99 years since Warringah was created the Liberal’s have never had this low of a 2PP vs Labor. This seat is changing.

  20. Ben Labor are never going to win this seat just because the 2PP was close cause of a protest vote in which the preferences didn’t even matter doesn’t mean it’s close. There was anger against the sitting member not the party itself as a lot of the senate vote in the area still held up. Also Labor’s primary of 6% roughly is woeful even with an independent running.

  21. Yes Ben, there was a massive 2PP swing here, but no-one noticed it as Zali won easily.

    The Cremorne and Neutral Bay joint booths with North Sydney (where there was no IND in 2019) are interesting. The Warringah result was 61/39 to Steggall for both. For North Sydney, the result in Cremorne was 59/41 to LIB (the seat average) – a 9% swing, whilst Neutral Bay was just LIB 52/48 – an 8% swing.

    Though Winediamond will simply tell us this reinforces his view of the local MP for North Sydney!

  22. Reports have it that Gladys Berejiklian has been approached to contest this seat at the federal election. It’s odd considering she still has to be investigated by the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption probe.

    I love of the double standards of Newscorpe. They quadruple down on former Queensland Labor deputy premier Jackie Trad who was actually cleared by the CCC. But if its a Liberal politician such as Berejiklian they are all handwringing and blaming the corruption watchdog.

  23. I don’t know why Berejiklian would be approached to run in Warringah when it’s just going to be a waste of Lib resources in a state where they are now badly tanking. The Libs need to realise they have no chance in Warringah and just put their money and resources elsewhere in the state. They probably have to do the same thing for the entire state of WA because there’s very little ground worth saving.

  24. Discussions on Lib pre-election include former YL president Alex Dore (who moved into the area) and local Jane Buncle.

    There has been much conjecture about other candidates for the seat. This is a pre-selection to watch.

  25. Picked Abbott to win in 2019.. largely because I thought the seat was just 2 conservative.This reminds me of 2013 when Sophie Mirabeau lost despite a 4 to 4% swing to the liberals maybe the voters are wise

  26. Steggall was only elected because Abbott was deeply unpopular but she does seem like a relatively good fit for this seat. I think the Liberals have a problem with fiscally conservative/culturally progressive white collar seats like this, kinda like how Labor has a problem with culturally conservatives blue collar seats.

    A few people here have commented that an independent can’t do better than 58:42 TPP, but Andrew Wilkie won Clark (which would otherwise probably be a safe Labor seat) 72:28 TPP at the last election.

  27. It was stated on insiders that the Libs were polling the seat last weekend to gauge Gladys’ support. Any one got any gossip on how the polling came out?

  28. It was reported in the Sydney Morning Herald Liberal rank and file in seats Warringah and Gilmore are getting restless because they believe the Liberal executive is deliberately stalling the pre-selections. In a strategy to put in Scott Morrison’s ‘captains picks’ in key seats. The obvious choice is Andrew Constance for Morrison in Gilmore. But the only one really rumored is Gladys Berejiklian in Warringah. Mike Baird has already ruled it out contesting Warringah.

    Its funny that Berejiklian is a consideration. If this was the Labor party, then it would out of the question. And the media certainly would let up on it either.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/folau-considers-a-higher-purpose-in-politics-20211115-p5994t.html

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