Warringah – Australia 2022

IND 7.2% vs LIB

Incumbent MP
Zali Steggall, since 2019.

Geography
Northern Sydney. Warringah covers parts of the Northern Beaches and Lower North Shore of Sydney, including Manly, Mosman and parts of Neutral Bay, Allambie Heights, Brookvale and Curl Curl. The seat covers the entirety of Manly and Mosman council areas, as well as parts of North Sydney and Warringah. The largest proportion of the population lives in Warringah.

History
Warringah was first created at the 1922 election, and has never elected a Labor candidate, electing a conservative candidate at almost every election. The first exception was in 1937 when an independent was elected, who proceeded to join the United Australia Party shortly after his election and went on to serve as a minister in a number of conservative governments. The second exception was in 2019.

The seat was first won by Granville Ryrie in 1922. Ryrie had been Member for North Sydney since a 1911 by-election and was elected to Warringah unopposed. The ALP challenged him in 1925 but he managed over 80% of the vote.

Ryrie was appointed High Commissioner to London in 1927 and the by-election was won by Archdale Parkhill, in a race where the two Labor candidates polled barely 18% between them.

Parkhill had been the Lynton Crosby of early 20th Century Australian politics, coordinating many campaigns for the early Liberal Party and Nationalists over two decades. Parkhill served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1932 until 1937, serving as Minister for Defence during Lyons’ second term.

Parkhill was defeated at the 1937 election by conservative independent Percy Spender, who won the seat in a close race on preferences after falling 15% behind on primary votes. Spender went on to join the UAP shortly after his victory. Spender served in the wartime governments of Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden and served as Minister for External Affairs until 1951, when he retired at the election before being appointed Ambassador to the United States. Spender went on to serve as Australia’s first representative on the International Court of Justice at The Hague.

Spender was succeeded in 1951 by Francis Bland, who held the seat for ten years with massive majorities, polling over 70% on two occasions and being elected unopposed on a third. He retired without ever taking a ministerial role.

Bland was succeeded in 1961 by John Cockle, who held the seat until his death shortly before the 1966 election.

Cockle was succeeded by prominent Edward St John in 1966. St John caused controversy in 1969 attacking Prime Minister John Gorton, which led him to resign from the Liberal Party, and he was defeated at the 1969 election by Liberal candidate Michael MacKellar.

MacKellar served as a minister in the Fraser government until 1982, when a scandal involving the importation of a colour television saw him resign from the ministry.

MacKellar resigned from Parliament in 1994, and the ensuing by-election was won by Tony Abbott. Abbott went on to serve as a minister for the entirety of the Howard government from 1996 to 2007, becoming a senior member of Cabinet in the last two terms of the government.

Abbott had always held Warringah by large margins over the ALP, and the first serious threat to his hold on the seat came in 2001, when Peter Macdonald, former independent member for the state seat of Manly, challenged Abbott. Macdonald polled 27% of the primary vote and came within 6% of defeating Abbott.

Abbott served as Shadow Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs following the Howard government’s defeat in November 2007, serving in the role under leaders Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull.

Abbott resigned from the frontbench in November 2009 in protest at Malcolm Turnbull’s support for the Emissions Trading Scheme, which triggered the collapse of Turnbull’s leadership. Abbott won a slim majority in a party room ballot against Turnbull in December 2009 and was elected Leader of the Liberal Party.

Abbott led the Coalition into the 2010 election. The Labor government lost its majority, but managed to piece together a majority with the support of crossbench MPs. Abbott led the Coalition through the next term, before winning the 2013 election. Tony Abbott served as Prime Minister until he was defeated for the Liberal leadership in September 2015. Abbott was re-elected in 2016, but in 2019 was defeated by independent Zali Steggall.

Candidates

  • Steven Tripp (One Nation)
  • Zali Steggall (Independent)
  • Andrew Robertson (United Australia)
  • Kristyn Glanville (Greens)
  • Katherine Deves (Liberal)
  • David Mickleburgh (Labor)
  • Kate Paterson (Animal Justice)
  • Assessment
    Steggall is a first-term MP and will likely benefit from a new personal vote. There is a long history of first-term independents increasing their margin. But a lot of the swing in 2019 would have been motivated by a dislike for Tony Abbott, who won’t be running again.

    2019 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Zali Steggall Independent 40,034 43.5 +43.5
    Tony Abbott Liberal 35,935 39.0 -12.6
    Dean Harris Labor 6,091 6.6 -8.2
    Kristyn Glanville Greens 5,647 6.1 -6.1
    Heather Barnes Animal Justice 1,291 1.4 +1.4
    Susan Moylan Independent 1,111 1.2 +1.2
    Emanuele Paletto Sustainable Australia 678 0.7 +0.7
    Suellen Marree Wrightson United Australia Party 625 0.7 +0.7
    Jason Blaiklock Christian Democratic Party 461 0.5 -0.7
    Brian Clare Conservative National Party 250 0.3 +0.3
    Informal 4,897 5.0 -1.0

    2019 two-candidate-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Zali Steggall Independent 52,728 57.2
    Tony Abbott Liberal 39,395 42.8

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Tony Abbott Liberal 48,011 52.1 -9.0
    Dean Harris Labor 44,112 47.9 +9.0

    Booth breakdown

    Warringah has been split into three areas: Manly, Mosman and Warringah. Polling places in the Mosman and North Sydney council areas have been grouped as “Mosman” while those booths in the Northern Beaches council area have been split between the two former council areas of Manly and Warringah.

    Steggall won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.5% in Warringah to 62.6% in Manly. She also won the pre-poll and other votes but by smaller margins.

    Voter group GRN prim ALP prim IND 2CP Total votes % of votes
    Warringah 6.6 7.2 56.5 21,922 23.8
    Manly 6.0 5.0 62.6 15,917 17.3
    Mosman 5.5 6.5 58.6 14,664 15.9
    Pre-poll 5.5 6.5 55.7 28,846 31.3
    Other votes 7.8 8.3 53.2 10,774 11.7

    Election results in Warringah at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidate Zali Steggall and the Liberal Party.

    Become a Patron!

    213 COMMENTS

    1. @ Nether Portal
      If do a comparison between Federal Mosman booths in Warringah and State Mosman booths in North Shore you will see a stark contrast.
      Sometimes i wish Gladys Berejiklian ran Warringah while i dont think she would won she would have outperformed Tony Abbott’s 2019 result. Also what is Katherine Deves views on climate? I think many Warringah voters hoped that the Libs would choose a moderate candidate in 2022

    2. @Nimalan alright I’ll do North Shore next.

      Also, I don’t know Katherine Deves’ views on climate by knowledge. I’m a Liberal member but not from the Northern Beaches (it’s a beautiful spot and I’ve been there countless times but too expensive).

      I’ll Google her views on climate.

    3. According to the Daily Telegraph (https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/manly-daily/warringah-election-katherine-deves-call-to-look-at-nuclear-power-for-future-energy-needs/news-story/d678af75fbf383df179a94539a1d301d?amp), she supports looking into nuclear energy as a future energy source. I don’t think that’s a bad idea as nuclear energy is actually considered sustainable and low-carbon (https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/3-reasons-why-nuclear-clean-and-sustainable), and many young Australians actually support nuclear power. The Coalition is officially pro-nuclear and it would help for net zero. Not sure about her other views though. I’ll have a further look.

    4. (I Googled it but my comment is awaiting moderation, basically she’s pro-nuclear and doesn’t deny climate change but is anti-net zero)

    5. Thanks @ Nether Portal
      I agree Northern Beaches is a beautiful part of the world, i only have been there once in 2013 but loved it, i describe it as paradise.
      There is a another tweet on her views on Climate which she described as a scam (link below). I think it is very hard to win Warringah back if a candidate is not pro net zero. Look forward to your examination into North Shore. Interestingly she was a captain’s pick not chosen by Liberal members.
      https://twitter.com/deves_katherine/status/1739962720995418340

    6. I did Manly before so now North Shore.

      Warringah/North Shore, federal vs state Liberals (TCP):
      Balmoral PS: 44.56% vs 61.81%
      Forysth Park Community Centre: 39.00% vs 49.45%
      Middle Harbour PS: 41.84% vs 58.72%
      Mosman Drill Hall: 41.91% vs 64.51%
      Mosman PS: 37.01% vs 60.24%
      Neutral Bay PS: 36.29% vs 55.87%
      Neutral Bay Uniting Church: 30.91% vs 50.93%
      St Clement’s Anglican Church: 41.90% vs 57.18%

      @Nimalan you were right: that’s an even bigger contrast!

    7. Thanks Nether Portal, Much appreciated

      As a Liberal member, do you know why there was not a rank and file preselection held in Warringah in time, Jane Buncle was interested in running and she had the backing of the moderate faction. Many Liberal members in Warringah were unhappy they did not get a say and may did not want to volunteer as a result.

      https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/presumed-liberal-candidate-for-warringah-quits-amid-state-branch-turmoil-20220131-p59spw.html

    8. That was quite publicly reported at the time as the result of broader factional drama that affected preselections across many NSW seats. A number of sitting NSW Liberal MPs (some of whom were in Morrison’s centre-right faction) were facing preselection challenges from other factions that were believed to have substantial support, which caused significant tension. To oppose some of these challenges to sitting MPs, Alex Hawke (a close Morrison ally) was fairly broadly abusing his position on the nomination review committee to block candidates being endorsed, by simply preventing the meetings being held (the meetings were a requirement for endorsing candidates under the NSW Lib constitution). This failure to endorse candidates meant that the federal executive eventually intervened to resolve the deadlock, which was Hawke & Morrison’s intention (after a lot of internal wrangling in an attempt to placate the various factions). This resulted in sitting MPs being re-endorsed and a small committee (including Morrison and Perrottet) hand-picking candidates in the remaining branches.

    9. @Nimalan again I’m not from the area so I’m not particularly sure. However, I think it was part of the rushed preselection in NSW at the last election. Remember when there was that three-person committee of Scomo, Perrottet and former NSW Liberal president Christine McDiven that preselected a bunch of last-minute candidates in Sydney? Warringah was one of those seats.

      I think it also had something to do with factions. Wikipedia tells me that there were plenty of Moderates who wanted to contest (disability advocate David Brady was among them too) as well as another Conservative candidate (defence analyst Lincoln Parker), but both men were described as being “not the candidate we’re looking we really need here”. Interestingly she actually was a “circuit breaker” in that she managed to get past a Liberal Party rule that would’ve actually prevented her from running as a Liberal candidate due to her not being a member of the party for long enough. Deves was described by branch members as “smart, articulate and not at all a “politician”, and she looks like a movie star”.

      Basically the whole preselection business in Warringah was an absolute mess.

    10. My reading from afar was that Jane Buncle seemed to be a very good candidate but this was not the election for her. Why run and lose when the Morrison government was on the nose and Zali Steggall was always going to win. Running and losing would have doomed her political career forever.

    11. @ Nether Portal
      I hope they do a proper preselection in Warringah in 2025 and that a good candidate emerges.
      @ Redistributed, i do agree 100% with you that Morrison was on the nose and Zali Steggall would have certainly won it. Where i disagree is that running and losing would have doomed her political career forever
      Other examples of candidates who ran and lost and succeeded later on.
      1. Kevin Rudd ran in Griffith in 1996 and lost a seat that Labor held for more than almost 20 years only to win it 1998
      2. David Bradbury ran for Lindsay twice before finally winning on his third attempt in 2007
      3. Shayne Neumann on his first attempt at Blair in 2004 suffered a swing against him before getting a big swing towards him in 2007
      4. Susan Templeman ran in Macquarie in 2010, 2013 (Labor on the nose) before finally winning the seat in 2016
      5. Pauline Richards ran in Forest Hill in 2014 suffered a swing against her contrary to statewide trend and then won Cranbourne with a big swing to her in 2018. Today the replacement seat for Forest Hill is held by Labor and they only won it when running for third term.
      6. Cathy O’Toole ran for Hebert in 2013 when Labor was on the nose but won it in 2016.

      I think there other metrics of success, for example Jane Buncle may have got a notional swing from Labor to the Libs, she may have flipped some booths and improved the Liberal primary compared to 2019. It would also add weight to the argument that the Libs cannot just give up on the Teal seats.

    LEAVE A REPLY

    Please enter your comment!
    Please enter your name here