Swan – Australia 2022

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  1. Finally the guide exists.
    Steve Irons is a “local”* MP who takes credit for everything despite not doing all that much.
    Zaneta Mascarenhas seems like a really good fit for the area but Labor Right and associated unions are doing everything they can to sabotage her campaign.
    Clint Uink is a Koreng Noongar man and it’s great to see diversity in Perth seats because there hasn’t been that much as of late, and will be great to see alongside Dorinda Cox, the soon to be Senator.
    The sizeable personal vote of Ken Wyatt’s will be lost in Forrestfield/Maida Vale/Wattle Grove and this will make life harder for Irons.
    I predict a Labor gain because of the swings in the state seats to Labor:
    SOUTH PERTH +17.3%
    Victoria Park +11.1%
    Belmont +17.8%
    Cannington +12.8%
    Forrestfield +16.1%

    *Doesn’t live in the electorate, lives in Melville

  2. Prior to the addition of the eastern Areas around Forrestfield from Hasluck, this seat reminded me of Dunkley a seat sharply polarised along Class lines with waterfront mansions in South Perth similar to Mount Eliza/Frankston South and more deprived areas inland.

  3. Its been reported in the Western Australian that Steve Irons is facing a pre-selection challenge from Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney.

    Whatever your opinon of Irons it wouldn’t be the smartest decision to despatch a incumbent this election. In a seat where the margin is vulnerable and the WA state elections were so strong for Labor.

  4. If McSweeney couldn’t win preselection in Bateman, she won’t win it here. Why would the local branch ditch a local MP who is the longest serving lower house MP in WA?

  5. Because… he’s the longest serving lower house MP in WA. (Along with Nola Marino.) 14 years of bugger-all. I don’t even have anything negative to say about him – I couldn’t pick the guy out of a lineup.

    Most MPs who have been around that long either become ministers (Bishop, Wyatt, Porter, Price), or get notable for being controversial (Dennis Jensen was a climate change denier, Luke Simpkins was Hansonite some days, Moylan and Washer rocked the boat on refugee detention). Irons is just… there. He was lucky WA didn’t come to the Rudd-mania party back in 2007, and he stayed lucky while this state is weirdly allergic to federal Labor. It won’t last forever, and he’ll be forgotten very soon after the bubble bursts.

    McSweeney the younger sounds far-right (Tony Abbott, Sky News). Ugh.

  6. As a Swan voter, I’m happy that Steve Irons is leaving. The guy has to be one of the laziest MPs ever. He literally gave up on interacting with constituents back in 2013 and spend most of his time playing golf around the Country.

  7. Swan had the strangest feel at the last election, the traditional Liberal areas of South Perth voted Labor and the traditional Liberal areas voted Labor.

    So it is an area were Liberal voters are prepared to vote Labor. It seems strange that Labor holds the seat of South Perth, let alone holds the seat by 10% and nearly won on primary votes alone.

    This looks to be the first seat in WA to go to Labor and if they cannot win Swan they cannot win Government.

  8. safe ALP gain. Labor will have a margin of at least 5% here given the following factors
    1. Steve Irons is retiring and sitting member loss is bad for the party holding the seat
    2. McGowan is seen as a strong leader in WA so some of that will translate to the federal stage.
    Out of interest I noticed the small number of seats lost by oppositions who win power at the election where they are losing the seat and noticed this is one of them.

  9. Kristy McSweeney has been endorsed unopposed as the Liberal candidate in Swan. A poll of 800 in the Australian reported that Labor was ahead 57 – 43 on two party preferred in this seat. Labor was tracking at a primary vote of 44% it was reported.

  10. Swan is very likely to be a Labor gain when you consider the popularity of WA Labor, no sitting MP and the increasingly unpopular Liberal Federal Government.

    Moved into this area a few years ago and there isn’t a strong sense of common interest in different sections of this seat. You have the western third (South Perth) that is quite well-off and normally Liberal heartland, an eastern third (Belmont) that is more working class and Labor leaning, and a central third (Victoria Park) that has a combination of the former two along with some inner city traits with substantial votes for the Greens. It’s a microcosm of most metropolitan areas within a single seat.


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