Solomon – Australia 2022

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  1. No clue why the CLP is running the same failed candidate for Lingiari, She was supposed to beat Snowden in 2013 all polls were pointing to it and even the exit poll predicted Snowden would lose yet she didn’t manage to beat the weak incumbent. Fast forward to 2016 she got a swing against her.

    Candidates who lose twice or more are extremely unlikely to win, Just ask Matthew Fraser, Kerri-Anne Dooley, Fiona McNamara and many more but I’m not going to make an entire list. But the point is running the same candidate almost never leads to success for the party in the seat they run in. The 3 example I listed all targeted marginal seats and yet in some cases there were swings against them the last time they ran (Even Matthew Fraser had a swing against him against the national trend last time)

    ALP hold with an increased margin. the CLP have a better chance at Lingiari.

  2. the political climate points to the exact opposite thing happening, given the NT government lost support at the territory election (less so in Darwin) so the ALP will probably still hold albeit with a slightly decreased margin, if indeed anything
    Why does it work for the Greens then? Amy MacMahon, Kirsten Lovejoy, Michael Berkman, Jono Sri, Caroline Perks, Dorinda Cox, Alex Bhathal (albeit no longer) and Tim Hollo have all had continuous improvement in the party’s vote over time, getting them very close/ actually winning the seat on many an occasion.

  3. I agree with David’s comment, the 2016 result with swing to Labor is due to Labor support in Northern Territory being strong coming off a landslide state/territory election win held just a few months before the federal election.

  4. The Greens have had plenty of serial candidates (shout out to Richard Nielsen who contested Brisbane Central for four elections in a row). I think it’s a bit of an expectations thing. It’s still quite rare that a Greens candidate is actually expected to win. A close loss – provided the vote total does go up – is still seen as an improvement to be built on.

    Whereas the majors are a bit more win-or-nothing. It’s either a target seat or a paper candidate. Paper candidates come and go. Target seat candidates are, y’know, expected to win.


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