ALP 4.5%
Incumbent MP
Pat Conroy, since 2016. Previously member for Charlton 2013-2016.
Geography
Lake Macquarie and Central Coast regions of New South Wales. Shortland covers the suburbs of Lake Macquarie council on the eastern shore of Lake Macquarie, as well as northeastern suburbs of Wyong LGA. Key suburbs include Belmont, Charlestown, Cardiff, Warners Bay, Gateshead, Swansea, Budgewoi and Lake Munmorah.
History
Shortland was created in 1949, and has usually been a safe Labor seat, with the ALP polling over 60% at most elections.
The seat was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s Charles Griffiths, an official for the Australian Railways Union. Griffiths held the seat for the entirety of the 1950s and 1960s, and retired in 1972. He was replaced in 1972 by Peter Morris. Morris served as a junior minister from the election of the Hawke government in 1983 until he was promoted to Cabinet in 1988. He was dropped from Cabinet in 1990 due to lack of factional support and retired in 1998.
The seat was won in 1998 by Jill Hall, who had been elected to the state seat of Swansea in 1995. Hall held the seat for six terms.
The redistribution leading up to the 2016 election abolished the neighbouring seat of Charlton. Pat Conroy, who had held the seat of Charlton since 2013, replaced Jill Hall in Shortland. Conroy was re-elected in 2019.
Assessment
Shortland fell into the marginal category at the 2019 election for the first time since 1987. This election will show us whether this was a brief aberration or the beginning of a trend which will see this seat come more into play. Labor won’t be comfortable with this margin but will be the favourites nonetheless.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Pat Conroy | Labor | 41,126 | 41.1 | -10.0 |
| Nell McGill | Liberal | 37,363 | 37.4 | +2.2 |
| Wylie Campbell | Greens | 8,256 | 8.3 | -1.2 |
| Dani Rifai | United Australia Party | 4,532 | 4.5 | +4.5 |
| Bryan McGrath | Animal Justice | 3,596 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Susan Newbury | Sustainable Australia | 3,097 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Xing Yu | Christian Democratic Party | 2,010 | 2.0 | -2.2 |
| Informal | 6,847 | 6.4 | +1.7 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Pat Conroy | Labor | 54,437 | 54.4 | -5.5 |
| Nell McGill | Liberal | 45,543 | 45.6 | +5.5 |
Booths have been divided into five areas: Cardiff-Warners Bay in the north-west, Charlestown in the north-east, and then from north to south Belmont, Swansea and Wyong. The “Wyong” area covers those polling places in Wyong Shire, with the remaining polling places in the City of Lake Macquarie.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 52.7% in Belmont to 61.2% in Charlestown.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Charlestown | 11.6 | 61.2 | 15,752 | 15.8 |
| Cardiff-Warners Bay | 8.9 | 54.2 | 14,255 | 14.3 |
| Wyong | 6.4 | 54.0 | 12,630 | 12.6 |
| Belmont | 8.9 | 52.7 | 11,547 | 11.5 |
| Swansea | 7.3 | 56.4 | 7,361 | 7.4 |
| Pre-poll | 6.7 | 50.6 | 27,299 | 27.3 |
| Other votes | 8.8 | 55.8 | 11,136 | 11.1 |
Election results in Shortland at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Liberal gain, This is the Hartlepool of Australia, working class traditional left-leaning town getting sick and tired of Labor deserting the working class, The coalition may not be popular here but politics is mostly about ”Lesser of the 2 evils” nowadays. Albanese is a poor fit for this region and the union movement is turning against Labor by the minute.
If Labor does hold it will be because of Pat Conroy. Some see him as a future leader as he is only 42, If Labor doesn’t start appealing to the working-man more then I only expect this seat to be held by them when they are in Gov meaning this could become a bellwether seat.
One to watch as long as Albo is at the top.
I think Labor’s pitch to hold on to coal voters will fail spectacularly – they won’t win any regional QLD seats back and they’ll lose Hunter as the regional areas that used to have a strong Labor contingent turn into more conventional Nat voting areas. However the fundamentals for Labor here are good and as a “suburban” seat they can hang on here longer term.
Both Central Coast seats are in play and Labor will need to rely on that part of the seat more to hang on here. If Labor lose Dobell and fall even further in Robertson then they’re at risk here, but I think the Central Coast being caught up in the Sydney lockdown will leave a bad taste in their mouth for Liberals (note that Lake Macquarie was not locked down).
John
I’m sure you are underestimating Pat Conroy’s ( “”ABILITY sic!””) to LOSE votes. This bloke is the “Trent Zimmerman” of the labor party. All he seems to have done (since turning Shortland into a marginal seating 2019) is spend the last 3 years arguing with Fitzy in Hunter, about the policy direction, that might actually HELP labor !!. This moron is actually THE proverbial “turkey voting for Xmas !!!. Talk about stupid.
With a little “luck” Conroy could create a lib victory . Certainly telling Fitzy to “SHUT UP” was a golden moment. A REAL ” WD award contender” !
I won’t even go into DANIEL’s assertion/prediction that Conroy will be a leadership contender !!!!!!!!!!!!! FFS. Talk about an alternate reality, or UNIVERSE !!!
Surprised One Nation didn’t run a candidate in here, again the ALP are in serious trouble here.
One Nation may well run a candidate at this election, given their result in neighbouring Hunter last time.
The Coalition won`t win this seat in the current political environment.
Starting to think Labor hold. No swing
I am still hearing about the Liberals thinking they can gain three Hinter region seats. I am told Shortland is one of them (along with Paterson and either Hunter or Dobell – though that is a loose definition of the region). Shortland seems very optimistic to me.
Labor will win it by up to 10%.
Paul Mateo, I think you are being very generous with your prediction. I see shortland as a Labor hold but the swing won’t be that much, maybe 1-2% as it is an industrial type area where Labor is losing support overall.
Labor could even lose votes as the liberal challenger Nell McGill is seeking a rematch and may already have some existing name recognition and ground campaign support from her previous run.
This seat is marginal, as is Paterson, but for the Liberals to win them federally they’d surely need to gain more territory on the state level in Newcastle. Although the seat of Newcastle itself won’t fall to the Liberals ever, but Paterson is certainly possible. But to do that the Liberals would need to win back Port Stephens on the state level (that may take two or three elections but the NSW Liberals would need to make it marginal again). With Shortland it’s even harder but I think a southern Newcastle seat like maybe Swansea would be able to elect a Liberal candidate if they find a base there (which is possible given that it’s upper-middle class, in fact ethnic background doesn’t really matter to be honest, but in major cities it’s safe to say that inner-city seats and working-class seats with high rates of union membership are Labor territory). Though I guess one factor contributing to all this is that the state seat of Lake Macquarie (located in Hunter and Shortland) is held by an independent, and while Labor still finishes second and ahead of the Liberals on TCP, the margin isn’t huge (in 2023, Greg Piper got 74.1% TCP while Labor got 62.8% TPP, with the primaries at 57.5% for Piper, 19.8% for Labor and 10.1% for the Liberals; but in 2019, Greg Piper got 72.1% TCP while Labor got 57.4% TPP, with the primaries at 55.3% for Piper, 21.4% for Labor and 15.5% for the Liberals). So if Greg Piper retires or resigns and doesn’t endorse a successor, both Labor and the Liberals would need to heavily target Lake Macquarie.
This brings the question though: while neither Labor nor the Liberals will be able to unseat Greg Piper until he retires/resigns, is it possible for the Liberals to potentially finish ahead of Labor on TPP and/or potentially make the TCP count? I think if the Liberals campaign really strong in Lake Macquarie they could potentially finish second on primaries and eventually o make the TCP count. I’m not sure where Greg Piper’s preferences go, however; he seems like a centrist independent, having given confidence and supply to Dominic Perrottet’s Coalition minority government before the last election and to Chris Minns’ Labor minority government after the election, though in both cases only one party would’ve realistically been able to form government.
I personally feel for the Coalition to regain government they will need to win back seats lost in 2023, Wagga Wagga, Orange, Barwon, Murray, Strathfield, Bega, Gosford and The Entrance. If they want to win seats in the Hunter Region it is Port Stephens and Maitland more likely they have a longer history of being held by the Coalition not Swansea. Shortland is only marginal at a federal level due to climate wars which is not the case at a state level. Same with Lake Macquarie it is very working class. Most of the wealthy liberal friendly suburbs are in Newcastle electorate itself such as Merewether and Bar Beach
@nether with Paterson. Likelytoshedlabor voting g Cessnock nd likely gain coalition voting maitland lga in the northit should return to pre 2016 boundaries(close) Paterson should return to the coalition
Paterson will be in play in 2025 and its Labor margin will be trimmed down.
Shortland will remain Labor unless there’s a landslide election coupled with a retiring or controversial local member.
@Nimalan I think it’s possible in a couple of elections that Maitland and Port Stephens will fall should the Liberals campaign there.
Barwon, Gosford, Kiama, Murray, Orange, Strathfield and Wagga Wagga may not be needed. The Coalition only needs nine seats to form a majority government in 2027 (Labor needs two): they could instead win seats like Bega, Camden, Coogee, East Hills, Heathcote, Monaro, Parramatta, Penrith, Riverstone, South Coast, The Entrance, etc.
@ Nether Portal
I agree with you regarding Maitland and Port Stephens. WIth respect to other seats you mentioned i especially agree with you regarding East Hills i feel that seat is becoming stronger for the Libs. While the Libs lost it in 2023, it actually voted more Liberal than the state as a whole for the first time so i think it will be one of the first seats to fall. I agree with you on the other seats you mentioned although i feel Coogee is harder important to remember that even in 2011 the Combined Labor/Green primary exceeded exceeded the Liberal Primary so while it can be won i think it is a bit harder. I mentioned Gosford because in 2015 the Libs only lost it by 0.2% and i made some comments on the Gosford thread yesterday. I do agree that The Entrance is an easier to win though and if the Libs are campaigning in the Central Coast to retain Terrigal and gain The Entrance they can make a play for Gosford while they are there. I mentioned Strathfield as well as the Libs only lost by 1.8% in 2015 and demographically it includes some very strong Liberal areas as well.