Shortland – Australia 2022

ALP 4.5%

Incumbent MP
Pat Conroy, since 2016. Previously member for Charlton 2013-2016.

Geography
Lake Macquarie and Central Coast regions of New South Wales. Shortland covers the suburbs of Lake Macquarie council on the eastern shore of Lake Macquarie, as well as northeastern suburbs of Wyong LGA. Key suburbs include Belmont, Charlestown, Cardiff, Warners Bay, Gateshead, Swansea, Budgewoi and Lake Munmorah.

History
Shortland was created in 1949, and has usually been a safe Labor seat, with the ALP polling over 60% at most elections.

The seat was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s Charles Griffiths, an official for the Australian Railways Union. Griffiths held the seat for the entirety of the 1950s and 1960s, and retired in 1972. He was replaced in 1972 by Peter Morris. Morris served as a junior minister from the election of the Hawke government in 1983 until he was promoted to Cabinet in 1988. He was dropped from Cabinet in 1990 due to lack of factional support and retired in 1998.

The seat was won in 1998 by Jill Hall, who had been elected to the state seat of Swansea in 1995. Hall held the seat for six terms.

The redistribution leading up to the 2016 election abolished the neighbouring seat of Charlton. Pat Conroy, who had held the seat of Charlton since 2013, replaced Jill Hall in Shortland. Conroy was re-elected in 2019.

Candidates

  • Bree Roberts (Animal Justice)
  • Basil Paynter (Independent)
  • Barry Reed (Liberal Democrats)
  • Nell McGill (Liberal)
  • Pat Conroy (Labor)
  • Kenneth Maxwell (United Australia)
  • Kim Grierson (Greens)
  • Quintin King (One Nation)
  • Assessment
    Shortland fell into the marginal category at the 2019 election for the first time since 1987. This election will show us whether this was a brief aberration or the beginning of a trend which will see this seat come more into play. Labor won’t be comfortable with this margin but will be the favourites nonetheless.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Pat Conroy Labor 41,12641.1-10.0
    Nell McGill Liberal 37,36337.4+2.2
    Wylie Campbell Greens 8,2568.3-1.2
    Dani RifaiUnited Australia Party4,5324.5+4.5
    Bryan McGrathAnimal Justice3,5963.6+3.6
    Susan NewburySustainable Australia3,0973.1+3.1
    Xing YuChristian Democratic Party2,0102.0-2.2
    Informal6,8476.4+1.7

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Pat Conroy Labor 54,43754.4-5.5
    Nell McGill Liberal 45,54345.6+5.5

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into five areas: Cardiff-Warners Bay in the north-west, Charlestown in the north-east, and then from north to south Belmont, Swansea and Wyong. The “Wyong” area covers those polling places in Wyong Shire, with the remaining polling places in the City of Lake Macquarie.

    Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 52.7% in Belmont to 61.2% in Charlestown.

    Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Charlestown11.661.215,75215.8
    Cardiff-Warners Bay8.954.214,25514.3
    Wyong6.454.012,63012.6
    Belmont8.952.711,54711.5
    Swansea7.356.47,3617.4
    Pre-poll6.750.627,29927.3
    Other votes8.855.811,13611.1

    Election results in Shortland at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.

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    10 COMMENTS

    1. Liberal gain, This is the Hartlepool of Australia, working class traditional left-leaning town getting sick and tired of Labor deserting the working class, The coalition may not be popular here but politics is mostly about ”Lesser of the 2 evils” nowadays. Albanese is a poor fit for this region and the union movement is turning against Labor by the minute.

      If Labor does hold it will be because of Pat Conroy. Some see him as a future leader as he is only 42, If Labor doesn’t start appealing to the working-man more then I only expect this seat to be held by them when they are in Gov meaning this could become a bellwether seat.

      One to watch as long as Albo is at the top.

    2. I think Labor’s pitch to hold on to coal voters will fail spectacularly – they won’t win any regional QLD seats back and they’ll lose Hunter as the regional areas that used to have a strong Labor contingent turn into more conventional Nat voting areas. However the fundamentals for Labor here are good and as a “suburban” seat they can hang on here longer term.

      Both Central Coast seats are in play and Labor will need to rely on that part of the seat more to hang on here. If Labor lose Dobell and fall even further in Robertson then they’re at risk here, but I think the Central Coast being caught up in the Sydney lockdown will leave a bad taste in their mouth for Liberals (note that Lake Macquarie was not locked down).

    3. John
      I’m sure you are underestimating Pat Conroy’s ( “”ABILITY sic!””) to LOSE votes. This bloke is the “Trent Zimmerman” of the labor party. All he seems to have done (since turning Shortland into a marginal seating 2019) is spend the last 3 years arguing with Fitzy in Hunter, about the policy direction, that might actually HELP labor !!. This moron is actually THE proverbial “turkey voting for Xmas !!!. Talk about stupid.
      With a little “luck” Conroy could create a lib victory . Certainly telling Fitzy to “SHUT UP” was a golden moment. A REAL ” WD award contender” !

      I won’t even go into DANIEL’s assertion/prediction that Conroy will be a leadership contender !!!!!!!!!!!!! FFS. Talk about an alternate reality, or UNIVERSE !!!

    4. One Nation may well run a candidate at this election, given their result in neighbouring Hunter last time.

      The Coalition won`t win this seat in the current political environment.

    5. I am still hearing about the Liberals thinking they can gain three Hinter region seats. I am told Shortland is one of them (along with Paterson and either Hunter or Dobell – though that is a loose definition of the region). Shortland seems very optimistic to me.

    6. Paul Mateo, I think you are being very generous with your prediction. I see shortland as a Labor hold but the swing won’t be that much, maybe 1-2% as it is an industrial type area where Labor is losing support overall.

    7. Labor could even lose votes as the liberal challenger Nell McGill is seeking a rematch and may already have some existing name recognition and ground campaign support from her previous run.

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