Shortland – Australia 2022

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  1. Liberal gain, This is the Hartlepool of Australia, working class traditional left-leaning town getting sick and tired of Labor deserting the working class, The coalition may not be popular here but politics is mostly about ”Lesser of the 2 evils” nowadays. Albanese is a poor fit for this region and the union movement is turning against Labor by the minute.

    If Labor does hold it will be because of Pat Conroy. Some see him as a future leader as he is only 42, If Labor doesn’t start appealing to the working-man more then I only expect this seat to be held by them when they are in Gov meaning this could become a bellwether seat.

    One to watch as long as Albo is at the top.

  2. I think Labor’s pitch to hold on to coal voters will fail spectacularly – they won’t win any regional QLD seats back and they’ll lose Hunter as the regional areas that used to have a strong Labor contingent turn into more conventional Nat voting areas. However the fundamentals for Labor here are good and as a “suburban” seat they can hang on here longer term.

    Both Central Coast seats are in play and Labor will need to rely on that part of the seat more to hang on here. If Labor lose Dobell and fall even further in Robertson then they’re at risk here, but I think the Central Coast being caught up in the Sydney lockdown will leave a bad taste in their mouth for Liberals (note that Lake Macquarie was not locked down).

  3. John
    I’m sure you are underestimating Pat Conroy’s ( “”ABILITY sic!””) to LOSE votes. This bloke is the “Trent Zimmerman” of the labor party. All he seems to have done (since turning Shortland into a marginal seating 2019) is spend the last 3 years arguing with Fitzy in Hunter, about the policy direction, that might actually HELP labor !!. This moron is actually THE proverbial “turkey voting for Xmas !!!. Talk about stupid.
    With a little “luck” Conroy could create a lib victory . Certainly telling Fitzy to “SHUT UP” was a golden moment. A REAL ” WD award contender” !

    I won’t even go into DANIEL’s assertion/prediction that Conroy will be a leadership contender !!!!!!!!!!!!! FFS. Talk about an alternate reality, or UNIVERSE !!!

  4. One Nation may well run a candidate at this election, given their result in neighbouring Hunter last time.

    The Coalition won`t win this seat in the current political environment.


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