Ryan – Australia 2022

LNP 6.0%

Incumbent MP
Julian Simmonds, since 2019.

Geography

Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.

History

Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.

Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.

A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.

Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.

The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won two more terms in 2013 and 2016.

Prentice lost LNP preselection in 2019 to Brisbane City councillor Julian Simmonds, and he went on to win the seat with relative ease.

Candidates

  • Peter Cossar (Labor)
  • Julian Simmonds (Liberal National)
  • Elizabeth Watson-Brown (Greens)
  • Assessment
    The 2019 election was the first time in at least 35 years that the LNP two-party-preferred vote was lower in Ryan than in Queensland overall. The seat is not quite as conservative (relative to the state) as it once was, but that result would have partly been an artefact of the involuntary removal of the sitting member. The new member should benefit from a personal vote that should help him out, but if Labor is looking for potential targets in Queensland, this seat may rank higher than seats Labor held when they were last in government.

    There is also a question here about which party is the main rival for the LNP. Labor polled just 4.1% more than the Greens in 2019, and that gap narrowed to 3.3% by the critical point in the distribution of preferences. It is not hard to see the Greens becoming the main opposition to the LNP here, but they would still have some way to go to win the seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Julian Simmonds Liberal National 46,86948.6-3.5
    Peter Cossar Labor 23,56024.4+1.5
    Jake Schoermer Greens 19,62120.3+1.6
    Rodney MilesOne Nation2,0802.2+2.2
    Joanne WebbAnimal Justice1,8541.9+1.9
    Larry Edward CrouchUnited Australia Party1,4781.5+1.5
    Andrew BanksConservative National Party9641.0+1.0
    Informal2,3692.4+0.0

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Julian Simmonds Liberal National 54,02356.0-3.0
    Peter Cossar Labor 42,40344.0+3.0

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a vote ranging from 51.8% in The Gap to 63% in the west. Labor won 51.5% in Enoggera.

    Labor and the Greens both polled relatively similar numbers of votes, with Labor’s vote peaking in Enoggera while the Greens vote was highest in Indooroopilly.

    Voter groupGRN primALP primLNP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
    Indooroopilly24.522.754.722,50123.3
    The Gap22.926.551.814,19214.7
    Enoggera17.133.648.510,24710.6
    West17.719.663.06,7667.0
    Pre-poll18.523.958.225,84826.8
    Other votes18.522.259.716,87217.5

    Election results in Ryan at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.

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    24 COMMENTS

    1. He may not be the best performer in parliament but I don’t see Labor or the Greens taking this seat in the current circumstances. It is clear there has been a trend in this seat and Moggil and Maiwar away from the liberals but that won’t be enough for them to lose it in 2022. I can see Labor under Chalmers making this dead heat but as long as Albanese is leader they can say Adios to this seat. I agree this is more vulnerable than Petrie,Forde,Bowman and Bonner

      LNP hold with around the same margin

    2. @Daniel
      What do you see in Chalmers that make him some “great white hope”?. How many % is he worth, & where.? Or conversely how much of a drag is Albanese in minus terms, or numbers.? Not easy to quantify i know. I’ll update my assessment of Chalmers on the Rankin thread.
      Simmonds is one of the new pro political operatives. An uninspiring monochromatic formula robotic, predictable ” team player”. Simmonds gives a special meaning to the often quoted saying by my friend Rankin “teams are the refuge of the weak”!! Pollies like Simmonds almost make me a subscriber.

      When i look at such an average, as in mediocre , achiever /performer personality type (3) i feel quite uneasy, & apprehensive of the future. There is literally nothing this bloke wouldn’t do to win, because everything is transactional, & sublimated for efficiency. He is a typical representative of the current literal epidemic of this personality type (3) in politics.
      Simmonds had better have proven me wrong & found/created some personal following, appeal, & vote. It appears he will lose around 20000 voters from the west of Ryan, & get 20000 from the west of Brisbane. Ryan may well end up more marginal than Brisbane. Next redistribution wise.

    3. Agree that Simmonds will probably hold it, but no way is he keeping the same margin. I’d be shocked if there’s no swing against him in pretty much every booth north of Chapel Hill at least.

      Good chance the Greens beat Labor for the 2PP spot, for whatever that’s worth.

    4. Fascinating that this is seat is now less safe than Bonner, Petrie, Forde, and seats in regional Queensland that were competitive during the Rudd-Gillard years. Guess it just shows how much things have changed over the past decade.

      Is it fair to say that the correlation between socioeconomic status and Greens vote is particularly pronounced in Brisbane?

    5. Not solely about that but the Greens’ biggest growth is among inner-city renters. More and more young people are being priced out of the property market and the Greens are really the only major party trying to appeal to them on this issue in particular. The LNP’s housing policy, in contrast, is explicitly in favour of homeowners and inflated house prices, while Labor, as usual, are ambivalent. Max Chandler-Mather has a video on youtube about this sort of stuff but frankly I think his projections about the party’s growth prospects are wildly optimistic.

    6. Furtive Lawngnome
      “Not solely about that but the Greens’ biggest growth is among inner-city renters. More and more young people are being priced out of the property market and the Greens are really the only major party trying to appeal to them on this issue in particular.”

      Oh Wow this will just be sensational !. What Exactly are the Greens doing on Housing , that is so helpful, & is dealing with the issues ? This i have to hear. I have heard much complaint, whining, blame, judgement, preaching, lecturing, & dissembling nonsense. Can’t recall any solutions, new ideas, or constructive suggestions. Guess i must be ill informed?
      Housing affordability is a subject very close to my heart, so by all means enlighten me.

      the greatest rise in the Green vote has been in wealthy privileged largely elite suburbs, & electorates, Mostly blue ribbon liberal, like mine. it would be way to attribute this to climate change catastrophism.

    7. You can look at Jonathan Sri’s vacancy levy he proposed in council, Amy MacMahon’s private members’ bill that would cap rental increases, give renters the right to keep pets except if the owner applies to QCAT and gives demonstrable reasons why they shouldn’t and prevents no-grounds evictions, or the fact that they’ve consistently promised the most on building new public housing at pretty much every level of government in recent elections (and spoiler: it’ll be a major plank in their federal platform this time as well). Compare to the Coalition’s policy on negative gearing and sacrificing superannuation for home purchases and lethargy on new public housing construction, and Labor running the line that ending no-cause evictions is somehow a breach of the human rights act.

      I’m not sure exactly what fantasy you’ve constructed for yourself about Greens voters but like I said before, they’re increasingly young adults whose take home pay is being chewed up by five, six hundred dollar rents every week, or who flat out can’t afford their own places and are having to live with their parents well into their twenties and thirties. Their weekly income and share of the national wealth has never been lower compared to any other generation of Australians since, well, pretty much ever. Many are increasingly giving up hope of ever owning their own home. And they’re increasingly voting for the Greens because of it.

    8. What is the Greens’ position on negative gearing and capital gains tax? Do they have one?

    9. They ran on dismantling negative gearing in 2019. I don’t know if they’ll do that again this time and I don’t know what their capital gains policy is. Pretty sure they haven’t announced either way. If I had to guess I’d expect them to emphasise their income and wealth tax policy for the upcoming election, but that’s just a guess

    10. I’d say most of the change in this seat is gently demographics-driven. It’s culturally more and more progressive relative to the rest of the state but still wealthy. That’s a big part of the 2016 vs 2019 change; this is much more a Turnbull seat than a Morrison seat.

      Meanwhile on the left, Labor are running the same candidate as last time so not a radical change; they have bigger targets elsewhere. It’s also clear that the Greens are again prioritising Griffith, so I’m not sure how much change there will be in the 3CP – but they saw solid swings in the core of the seat in the council and state elections last year, and much of the electorate is very door-knockable, which suits them.

    11. I would say the spirits of the Greens in the area are running high after a very strong result in the state seats of Maiwar and Cooper. I think it’s plausible that this is the cycle that the Greens overtake Labor in the 3PP.

      I expect the LNP will see a swing against them in QLD, and a slightly bigger swing in city seats, but with sophomore surge I don’t expect Ryan to be a seat realistically in play.

    12. P sure that’s not true Ryan. Inner city ALP and Greens voters are much more likely to preference each other than elsewhere in the state, and the best result for ALP > Greens flows was in Maiwar incidently, which is mostly coterminous with federal Ryan. Nonetheless, the 80% ALP > Greens preference flows in Maiwar only really matches the Greens > ALP state average for Queensland. I don’t know what Maiwar’s Greens > ALP preference flows were like, but given Miller’s were over 90%, it’s probably a fair bet they were pretty close to 90% as well.

      https://antonygreen.com.au/minor-party-preference-flows-at-the-2020-queensland-election/

    13. From another Antony Green article:

      ‘Green preferences: There were 70 two-party contests where Green preferences were counted out. In all 70 seats, preferences favoured Labor, in total 80.1% flowing to Labor, 19.9% to the LNP. Preferences were above 80% in 28 districts, reaching 90.1% in Miller. Green preferences also flowed 75.8% to Labor from a much lower Green vote in three contests versus One Nation. Overall these preference flows were slightly stronger than at the 2017 election.’

      https://antonygreen.com.au/analysis-of-the-2020-queensland-election-result/

      Pretty safe bet that Maiwar was one of those 28 seats.

    14. The thought of someone who votes Green but prefers the Liberals over Labor is very strange to me. What’s the typical profile of such a voter?

      On the other hand, a Labor voter who prefers the Liberals over the Greens is much easier for me to imagine.

    15. @Nicholas

      Perhaps someone who likes lower taxes and a freer economy but is socially progressive? And is more passionate about social issues?

    16. Agree, Some Green voters are quite affluent and probably see the Labor party as a working class party. Sometimes the term “Teal Greens” is used to describe these people as opposed to “Red Green” who blend socialism and Green politics. Maiwar is a different seat from South Brisbane. Maiwar was always well off unlike South Brisbane which was historically working class. The something can be said about Green voters south of the Yarra River in Melbourne and in areas like Jagagaja which are have always been more middle class.

    17. “Perhaps someone who likes lower taxes and a freer economy but is socially progressive?”

      You’ve made me realise that an answer to my question is me, potentially. It seems that when talking about psephology, I sometimes discount myself. I remember when Berejiklian became NSW Premier, I was weighing up between all six permutations of Labor/Liberal/Greens.

      At the federal level, the Liberals are just too far towards the conservative side for me to consider preferencing them above Labor. But if they move back towards the centre (I’m not expecting that to happen at all), that might change.

    18. On the ground I believe the Greens are very energised in Ryan and have been door knocking feverishly.

      In 2019 the difference between ALP Green was just over 3% before the greens at 22.3%. 82% went to the ALP but nor sufficient to push Peter Cosser over the line. Now in the coming election I would expect a small swing to the ALP and a bigger one against the LNP. It is possible but no likely that the Greens will pull ahead of the ALP in which case I would imaging a higher share of ALP votes would go Green – perhaps adding a percent of so to the ALP/Greens side.

      So if there was say a 5% swing against the LNP of which at least 4% landed with the Greens before the ALP then the Greens could get over the line. For the ALP to win they would need a 7% swing against the LNP of which 6% must land eventually with them on TPP.

    19. The “blue greens” or tree tories per se are still as socially progressive as the rest of the Greens (hence why the party will survive for a long time) however the blue greens are a bit more economically logical than the socialists.
      Seats like Ryan, Curtin, and the other ritzy & wealthy seats are full of them.

    20. Ryan
      Actually Ryan is fairly mixed. It includes some solid old style ALP communities.(keperra) some fairly solid but largely ALP suburban ones ones (Ferny Grove), some mixed suburbia (eg the Gap), some wealthy rural fringe, conservative with a green tinge (Brookfield), upper middle class with an academic/student overlay (Indooroopilly, St Lucia) and some typically inner city suburbs which are now very green eg Paddington. This is a seat where the location of the booths really matters. It stretches from full on inner city, through wealthy urban areas right our to farmland and horse country and also north into battler territory.

    21. I’d imagine the “Liberal Greens” are the types of people who’d vote for the old Democrats in a past life.

      i.e. they grew up voting Liberal or at least in that demographic, but are more socially liberal than the mainstream Liberal party. They still see the Liberals as representing them better overall, but have specific social-based issues that they disagree with them on.

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