Parramatta – Australia 2022

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38 COMMENTS

  1. Owens will lose regardless of how impressive she is because western Sydney will be a hallows night for Labor. NSW is where the big swings to the coalition will be. Don’t be shocked if the statewide TPP at the federal election in NSW is something like 57-43% which I predict it will be. And there is no way Owens survives if the statewide swing is 6-7% only half of that would see her out the door

  2. this is like Greenway…… but to assume 7% swing against Labor in nsw does not make sense…… if Labor held seats in 2013…. approx 10 years incumbent….. will be difficult for l,ibs to win…….. interesting how state federal figures coincide

  3. I know you were scarred by 2019 Daniel, but 57/43 in NSW???? Not happening. At this rate, the Coalition might not even win the election.

  4. Wreathy I wasn’t scarred because I don’t support Labor anymore, they have abandoned the working class by moving further to the left just like the UK Labour party did. Maybe 57/43 is a bit far sure. Maybe a 54/46 is more reasonable but anyone who seriously thinks Albanese has a chance is onto something. He is worse at appealing to voters than Bill Shorten.

  5. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/parramatta2022/comment-page-1#comment-753774

    There is going to be a swing against the Coalition in New South Wales at the election. The Coalition bet its political fortunes on the New South Welsh Government`s lockdown avoidance strategy and AstraZeneca vaccines, the lockdown avoidance strategy has very visibly failed and AstraZeneca is generally not advised for under 60s in Australia, leading to a slow Vaccine rollout exacerbating the failure of the NSW Government`s lockdown avoidance strategy.

    Anthony Albanese has demonstrated he is Left In Name Only (LINO) as leader with a rightward shift dumping of the negative gearing policy and now vowing not to repeal the stage 3 tax cuts.

  6. Reposted excerpts from 2016 & 2019

    winediamond April 27, 2019 at 11:16 am
    I am reposting from 2016. Nothing much has changed

    W of S
    Julie Owens is by far the most impressive labor MP in the country.
    No way the Libs will get this while she is around. Expect a very significant swing toward her. Well deserved too.
    It is often said that she has never been promoted because she has no factional support. Whatever that means.
    IMV it is because she would look, sound, & act so great, it would make the rest of them look even worse !!!!. I’d make her leader of the opposition in a heartbeat.

    Wreathy of Sydney April 25, 2016 at 6:07 pm
    I am aware of her skill and you’re completely right. She has well and truly proven herself quite capable, it takes a dedicated local and grassroots politician to not only buck the nationwide trend once in 2004 against an incumbent, but again in 2013.

    winediamond April 25, 2016 at 6:30 pm
    W of S
    Owens is way more , & better than that even. Whenever i’ve seen her in action, she has been positive, & constructive.
    (Somehow ) Julie also manages to talk without all those scripted party lines, repetitive policy statements.
    Owens shows what can be done, in terms of communication, advocacy, & true political debate, & representation.
    That it can done easily, with grace, charm, & good humour.
    Julie fully demonstrates HOW adversarial debate, & politicking, accomplish little by simply refusing to engage in it, with her own absolute dignity.
    A really remarkable woman. I am a huge fan.

    Wreathy of Sydney April 27, 2019 at 1:33 pm
    I agreed with you then Winediamond and I agree with you now.

  7. at least winediamond understands the situation in Parramatta correctly. Shame they don’t understand the ethos of the Greens, also not understanding the ethics of inner-city voters who might vote Green considering Labor would rather take those sweet, sweet fossil fuel corporate donations.

  8. Does anyone know if the Liberals actively targeted this seat in 2019?

    I’m going to put this in the same category as Greenway – it has every chance of flipping, but Labor have managed to hang on here during tougher elections and I can’t see it being an easy Liberal win.

    For all the political attention Western Sydney gets, it doesn’t seem like all that many seats actually hang in the balance. Maybe it was just the Labor bloodbath that was being predicted during the Gillard years, which never actually came to pass.

  9. I think it’s also a case of extrapolating a couple of seats (think Lindsay and [under the old boundaries] Macarthur) to the area as a whole. Most of Western Sydney (barring the dying days of the NSW government circa 2010/Gillard years) is solidly Labor.

  10. John
    I doubt the Libs put much into this 2019. However Labor gave it everything they had. IIRC they had like 4000 odd volunteers manning phones + doorknockers etc. Even with all that they still got quite a pounding, & were flattered by Julie’s personal following, & vote.
    In the next re- distribution i can’t see any possible contortion of boundaries that would enable Labor to retain both Greenway, & Parramatta. Both may well end up being unviable.
    If you were just to aggregate the number of booths in each seat that labor has lost, probably many of them permanently, & distributed them in the most extremely prejudicial way. It is possible to come to a very different outcome in seats. I’LL elaborate further on the McMahon , & Lindsay threads.

  11. Obviously the boundaries are a little different but Geoff Lee has made the state seat into a 60/40 seat for the Libs. Any configuration north/north west and the ALP will be toast. Same with Greenway. If they move south, it improves, but I don’t see the natural expansion in Parramatta moving south of the M4, which tends to be the political fault line.
    Both Owens and Rowland two of the best local MPs the ALP have. But I don’t see them both winning this time.

  12. Here’s one scenario for the next redistribution:
    • Bennelong remains unchanged.
    • Bradfield extends through Hornsby all the way to the Hawkesbury River.
    • Berowra takes in all of Castle Hill and Baulkham Hills.
    • Mitchell jumps across Old Windsor Road to take in the northern part of Greenway.
    • Greenway sits mostly south of the M7 and takes in more of Cumberland and Parramatta LGAs.
    • Parramatta is realigned north-south, extending to the southern boundary of Cumberland LGA.

    Changes of such scale will be necessary due to the numerical situation. This is actually one of the more conservative approaches I can find.

    How would Labor perform on the boundaries I just described?

  13. If Parra is majority Cumberland/Parramatta LGA and Greenway doesn’t have all those Liberal-leaning North of M7 suburbs I think both would be a fair bit safer for Owens and Rowland and would probably be fine in all but the worst of climates for the ALP. Those kind of swaps would probably make Mitchell a bit less safer and Berowra safer, but both seats are safely Liberal so it doesn’t matter.

    Now a matter of whether they can survive 2022. I think they can – but I am more bullish on Labor’s hopes than the Tally Room wisdom.

  14. As far as I understand, the Sydney seats are generally under quota, while rural NSW (thanks to some under-estimating in the coastal seats especially) is over. So I’d expect Macarthur to re-gain Camden and maybe part of the Southern Highlands, and for all the other Sydney seats to get generally pulled southwards with it.

    So I personally would expect Parramatta to move southwards and get better for Labor. The northern Sydney seats need a solid top-up, and northern Parramatta is probably the best place for that to happen.

  15. Yeah basically the growth in the “urban” seats is near enough to a decline of one seat. Redrawing Hume to something like its old boundaries (i.e. none of the Sydney Metropolitan area) is probably the easiest way to top up the Sydney seats, but I think it might likely mean that Hughes gets drawn as a primarily Liverpool LGA seat, Werriwa largely Campbelltown and Macarthur largely Camden + Wollondilly. I can also see an argument for replacing one of the SW/outback seats with a Hunter/North Coast area seat.

    Anyway that’s a discussion for two years from now. Who knows what might happen in that time.

  16. Gentlemen
    Thank you all for your various contributions, & views. If incremental solutions can be enacted then all of your views have a lot of validity. However there are push & pull factors from even as far as nsw borders , & previous inactions, & hopeless compromises that do need to be addressed.
    Regardless of where lines are drawn, & where seats move. North of the Parramatta river, most of Greenway,& most areas west of the cumberland Hwy & certainly the M7 will be, in at least notionally Liberal seats. At least 70+% of what is presently in MACARTHUR will be drawn North, or in effect Werriwa will be drawn south.
    WE also don’t know which seats may be abolished, & created.
    regards to all
    WD

  17. My seat here. pre-COVID outbreak I would’ve said this had a real chance of flipping but now it’ll probably stay with the ALP. Obviously the election is a long way away but my prediction would be a labor hold with around the same margin.

  18. Julie Owens has just announced she will not recontest the next election.

    Looking forward to see everyone’s reanalysis on this seat now.

  19. As an open seat, Parramatta will be competitive but Labor may be favoured if current polling continues in their favour. Choice of candidate will be important, if the Liberals pick someone too conservative (like former MP Ross Cameron), they probably won’t have a good chance of winning due to the multicultural nature of this seat.

  20. In response to Mark Mulcair, I dont think Macarthur can gain any more territory. It is already more than 10% over quota and will need to shrink.

  21. The issue with Parramatta is that it is where the two Sydney’s meet like Greenway and that a small redistribution can change the complexion of the seat. During the Howard era it had Winston Hills and reached the M2 and often did not go further South than the M4. Going into the 2007 election it became a notional Liberal seat and even included Kings Langley. I am not sure what the next redistribution will do to the seat but if hypothetically the M2 becomes it northern boundary then it may be very winnable for the Liberals. This is possible if Mitchell needs to shed territory with the growth of new housing around Gables, Box Hill, North Kellyville and Rouse Hill.

  22. Probably agree Nimalan, Mitchell is already 2.7% over quota based on latest statistics from AEC and projected enrolments from new housing developments will likely push it over 5% at the time of the next redistribution.

    In contrast Parramatta is currently 8% under quota on AEC statistics. Redrawing Parramatta to match local council boundaries, taking in areas like North Rocks and Winston Hills whilst losing the Cumberland Council areas to balance the enrolment numbers will make it a Liberal leaning seat.

  23. Yoh An

    My assumption was essentially reversing the 2015 redistribution, with Macarthur regaining Camden but losing large parts of Campbelltown. So all of Macarthur, Werriwa, Fowler and McMahon getting pulled southwards again. Which in turn would probably pull Parramatta southwards and make it safer for Labor.

    In 2022, on these boundaries, agree Owens’ retirement does make it an interesting seat.

  24. I’ve looked at the numbers, and unless trends somehow reverse, the next NSW federal redistribution with not be “nips and tucks” in this part of Sydney. There will be a drastic redrawing of electorates in the northern half of Sydney.

  25. Nicholas
    Agreed – between Berowra, Bradfield, Mackellar, North Sydney and Warringah – there is about 0.4 – 0.5 of a seat too many. Berowra may be the candidate to go. This may also allow Robertson to come south of the Hawkesbury (as it did prior to 1968) so that an extra seat can be slid in somewhere in the lower Hunter. Parramatta would probably move north and become comfortably conservative.

  26. Crossing the hawkesbury river may be seen as going against the aec criteria (boundaries must use rivers or other geographic features). Then again the previous Nsw redistribution had cook cross the Georges river.

  27. Having Robertson include Cowan and Berowra as well as the southern central coast may not be that bad, it would be like Beenleigh combined with northern parts of gold coast such as coomera and ormeau

  28. It would be shocking if Robertson were redrawn to straddle the Hawkesbury River. Not only would this violate a clear and long-standing boundary, it would probably carve up Gosford in an unsatisfactory way.

  29. With the retirement of Julie Owens this seat is now in play for the LNP. If Labor have a bad night this seat could flip.

  30. Not a chance Bob under current circumstances. Labor will hold this and should they win government as expected then I expect this to be in play in 2025/2028.

    Owens held onto this throughout 2004-2022 because she is a fighter for Parramatta. So yes her personal vote will cost Labor 2-3% on the TPP but that wouldn’t be quite enough and any national swing to Labor will negate this.

  31. I am interested to see who the major parties select as their candidate . Tanveer Ahmed who attempted to run for Reid in 2019 but grew up in Toongabbie maybe a good candidate for this seat given the demographics. Also Durga Owen who ran in Seven Hills last time at a state level for ALP may run as well.

  32. Julie Owens is retiring so this seat will become more marginal. Labor will need to hold onto seats like Parramatta to win government.

  33. John T

    You’ve mentioned a bucketload of seats where there’s private polling.
    Where’d you get this data from?

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