Parkes – Australia 2022

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  1. Good chance this seat loses Dubbo in the next redistribution to either Calare or Riverina. If it does it won’t change the complexation of this seat as it is rock solid National. Curtin/Chifley Labor were competitive in these parts but that is long gone now. Today’s Labor have a better chance at winning every single seat in Melbourne than winning here.

    The only bright spot for Labor would be an improvement in Broken Hill as I believe Labor did well in that area prior to the 2011 NSW state election. But to win this seat Dubbo and Broken Hill are not enough for Labor.

    Negligible swing.

  2. Daniel
    I like to know how you see this “”Good chance this seat loses Dubbo in the next redistribution to either Calare or Riverina.””??. Have you accounted for at least 50-60000 voters being infused into Calare from Hunter ?. Where else can this overflow go ?
    BTW i have no idea how the AEC will (or indeed won’t !!) deal with this.
    cheers wd

  3. Whilst you never know what a redistribution committee might come up with, western NSW is likely to undergo only modest boundary changes at the next redistribution. Dubbo is – by some distance – the largest population centre in Parkes. Moving it would be incredibly disruptive; and on the current enrolment figures I can see no justification for it.

  4. My guess would be rural frustration at the drought and water management issues. This was the perfect environment for major backlash but because ONP or Shooters didn’t run, the protest vote was spread amongst three candidates (LDP, IND, UAP). Still, these guys collectively managed over 20% of the vote!

  5. In a seat with similar issues at play – Calare – the Shooters got 17% of the vote alone; the combined major party vote was only 67% there compared to 74% in Parkes.

  6. winediamond,

    Upon closer inspection, I can see I did underestimate how much the north coast surplus will affect the western NSW seats. (The point about Dubbo stands though.) The most obvious outlet is the upper Hunter, and it may not be the only one. That will have a domino effect through some of the rural seats.

  7. David
    Yes. it will be really interesting won’t it ? One of the best solutions might be to restore the original federation seat of Gwddir in between NE, & Parkes. Or to name change NE at least.
    cheers WD

  8. logic would suggest Broken Hill And Dubbo remain in the same seat especially as bh is losing population ….. Page and Richmond should remain Coastal due to community of interest…… On state figures seats of Dubbo and Barwon were problems for the Nationals Barwon…. sff and Dubbo extremely close to an independent….. this suggests Rural disquiet.

  9. Mick
    Depends on WHOSE logic . Dealing with the travel distances of Broken Hill was a problem for the ministerial ambitions of Susan Ley. I think you’ll find that was the real reason for BH being returned to Parkes. Coulton is such an uninspiring “plodder” the best thing to do with him is to keep him “in transit” !!.

    Therefore he is best suited to the largest NSW electorate
    Don’t agree about Page. No reason why Tenterfield shouldn’t be in Page its much the same distance to Kyogle as Glen innes. Community of interest is rural
    cheers wd

  10. Unfortunately that’s the problem with the large outback seats is that the population, when it does increase, is doing so at a miniscule rate. The only way to have the “communities of interest” issue fixed is smaller electorates (i.e. 85,000 voters or less) which would in turn require changes to the size of the Senate. How do we know there’s going to be a redistribution anyway??

  11. Susan Ley;s electorate started at Albury and mainly followed the Murray River…. then up We go to Broken Hill………made as much sense as udders on a bull…. now much more compact. Also it makes more sense to have a major country town in an electorate….. Eg Forrest…..Bunbury, The solution of course to large electorates is to increase the number of seats….. The numbers changed I think in 1949 and 1984

  12. Ryan Spencer
    Agreed. The smaller electorate debate has been had here. Ben made/ issued a “dictum” which sort of settled it….! However i still lead the “resistance”!! against more politicians!!.
    There was an interesting proposal in the last NT redistribution which was to split everything in two, including Darwin. By extension say amalgamating Maranoa, & Groom , or Herbert, & Kennedy & then splitting them in two might have merit.
    cheers wd

  13. yeah Mick this even extends to urban areas; Swan now contains High Wycombe, Forrestfield and Maida Vale, which are casually on the other side of the airport.


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