Ben, not sure what you are basing your Assessment on. The only way Zimmerman has rebuilt the margin is via reference to the 2015 By-election, where there was a reasonable IND challenge (and no ALP candidate). At the 2 general elections since, the margin has reduced by 2.1% vs the previous general election (even with Turnbull as PM) and then 4.3%. I think what we have seen which has been lost in the fog a bit, is the effect of the loss of Hockey’s personal vote. Further, as your graph clearly shows, the gap to the NSW average is now much smaller than it has been certainly in 30 years and perhaps ever! At 7.5% gap now, could be interesting if NSW ALP was ever to get back to 52 or 53% state wide TPP. There is plenty of local talk about the Voices movement finding a IND candidate to support, but I sense it might be more smoke than fire. An Independent Liberal will find it hard to get into 2nd position – a McGowen type might be able to knock Zimmerman down by enough and sweep up a majority of the left vote to get there, but this seat could be quickly moving out of the “safe”” seat zone that is the best target for an IND. I mentioned it in 2019, so I’ll hint again. I can see why you combined Lane Cove and Hunters Hill LGA’s into a single “West” area, but it’s giving an average of two quite different results. Hunters Hill would be around 67% LIB TPP and Lane Cove would be around 57%.