North Sydney – Australia 2022

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  1. I feel people still forget to mention that there was a slight Turnbull factor in some of these inner metropolitan liberal seats which was definitely more of a factor in Melbourne but can’t be ruled out for some a Sydney seats hence why I’m still sceptical to see which way the swing goes and if it goes to Labor it honestly can’t see it going more then 1.5%. Ideally the liberals were supposed to “lose” the election in which the swings you see in some of these inner seats I feel would match an election losing swing or were a little better then it if you compare to 2007. I’ve grown up the seat next door in all my 25 years of life and just and have gotten to know various people and personally still fail to see how Labor even get close to seats like these even when the libs don’t have the strongest candidate. Also I feel it’s important to mention not everyone is a single issue voter in the seat that just cares about climate here.

  2. Labor will be targeting this now I think given they’re not going to win working-class electorates like Lindsay any time soon.

  3. @Nicholas Weston,

    Only a little bit – the swing in Bradfield was slightly more than North Sydney in 2019 though. 4.5% vs 4.3%. It’s obviously the education effect, so I think over the long term more in North Sydney – there’s an awful lot of Barristers around where I live! No matter what you think of lawyers, they are well educated..

    To those that say North Sydney changes significantly if it expands North – the first booths to go will be the Roseville booths and they are not the teeth of Liberal territory – they are not Wahroonga or St Ives. and the current results are with no local ALP presence, even on polling day. And next would be Lindfield. Swapping Lindfield for Hunters Hill would be a net positive for ALP in North Sydney. Castle Cove could be a problem though..

    I just saw that Roseville East booth swung >10% in 2019! Even more than Cammeray!! Winediamond, what did happen in 2019 – even our booth moves 5.4%. We they revert to the mean or is it a trend..?

  4. @Pez,
    Agree – I mentioned it in one of the first entries in this thread to Ben.
    As to the rest of your comment – maybe its a “shy Labor voter” effect??

  5. @High Street

    Yep, Castle Cove…

    What sets Castle Cove apart from nearby suburbs is that it has a much older population. Looks like a nice place to retire!

  6. I used to go running around Castle Cove at 6:30am when I trained for City2Surf. The golf course has a lot of ducks and the Thai restaurant is good value. There’s a good bike track for the kids at the Oval. It’s a pain to get back to a decent bus stop though. But I digress…

    There are a lot of older houses that haven’t been worked on since the 50’s. The public school has good enrolments though. It really shouldn’t be that much different to the suburbs to the West – its safer for the Government than Northbridge! Maybe there will be generational turnover in coming years.

  7. Nicholas Weston
    Firstly i’m not sure the typification of “leftward shift in North Sydney” is an (entirely?) accurate one. My view of the fed MP (TZ) is not exactly a secret !. NS has also had an influx of young & mobile voters who are relatively less sympathetic to the libs.

    What would apply almost evenly to NS, Bradfield, Mckellar , more to Waringah, less to Berowra, & not at all to Mitchell, Cook Hughes, is a recent phenomena. Starting in 2016 -2019 is a peeling off of “soft”liberal voters in sympathy with various issues that CC ALARMISM, catastrophism etc is EMBLEMATIC of. CC has for these voters overshadowed even ‘Cost of Living” issues, or money is not a factor. It has become more than a cause, it has become an identity.

    Please don’t ask me to explain this viewpoint, or position, because i have absolutely zero empathy with it. Or for that matter, the wealthy, privileged, self indulgent, inwardly focused, elite that are so stupid, or socially irresponsible. I despise these fortunate & self righteous hypocrites. Their preaching lecturing self congratulatory moral superiority, & piousness makes me nauseous, & enraged (in case you hadn’t already guessed !)

    Fortunately there numbers are finite, so instinctively i would guess they have already shifted their vote, or perhaps will this time (2022?). In short this is a choice they can make because they can AFFORD to, & BUGGER (those) most that can’t afford to.

    When , not if, Opaque Scientific duplicity, fabrication, & distortion is exposed, the cost starts to be assessed, & the abuses recognised. Then the weak minded , gullible people (fools) will reconsider their choices. Especially when they begin to comprehend the “Legacy” (a generational mountain of debt, & century of opportunity cost) they have bequeathed to their own children’s entire generation. They are the morally bankrupt arch enablers.
    END OF RANT. hope i did (Somehow) answer your inquiry Nicholas
    cheers WD

  8. there is a whole field of how demographic change effects votes…… good examples….. Banks Grey(sa) Sutherland shire…… Canada bay council…….Lithgow Bathurst…… some of the North sure…… Eastern suburbs of Melbourne

  9. I’ve created a map based on WD’s suggestion and uploaded it here.

    The resulting boundaries in the North West (the part of Sydney I am most familiar with) make sense to me, even though visually they may seem quite ugly. I’d be worried that “it’s ugly” might be a reason for the committee to completely dismiss the idea.

    I’m a former resident of Cherrybrook, and admittedly, I am a little uncomfortable with placing Cherrybrook in a division that extends deep into the Ku-ring-gai area. But at least it’s united with Beecroft, Pennant Hills, and the corridor up to Hornsby.

  10. Nice work! Where did you get the data?

    Seems very Liberal friendly though, I imagine that the new way of drawing Blacktown would create one ultra-safe Labor seat and one safe Liberal one (whereas now we have one ultra-safe Labor seat and one marginal Labor one), whereas that Parramatta would likely be a Liberal seat. And the seat that goes is the Indy one. I guess there’d be an extra Labor seat in the Western Suburbs, though.

  11. That seems like a much better option to me though. I could never quite understand how Blacktown was in the same seat as Kellyville.

  12. Yeah that’s not the case; Kellyville has always been in Mitchell. Though other than LGA boundaries there isn’t a lot of common interest between Blacktown and say The Ponds, in fairness.

  13. Biased whinging aside though you are correct that that way of drawing the Blacktown LGA makes more sense than the current one.

  14. As per previous comment, I’d rotate all the north shore seats about 1/3 of a seat, anticlockwise.

    LGA’s boundaries make most sense for State electorates, but not always sensible for Federal electorates – either geographically or politically. Crows Nest in same electorate as Queenscliffe but not Naremburn? Northbidge in same seat at St. Ives?

    Might be a good solution for the west – not much good for the north

  15. @Chaisa

    Geospatial data from the ABS, which I then joined with projected enrolment data from the NSW state redistribution. These projections were for 2023, whereas the federal redistribution will use projections with a target date around 2028. So the numbers could turn out to be quite different, but at least it gives us some sense of what will need to change and what will and won’t be possible.

    I concur with your assessment on the political implications – Bennelong, Greenway, and Parramatta become harder for Labor to win. But as you point out, there will need to be a new seat, likely in southwest Sydney.

    I do wonder if Steggall could contest North Sydney on those boundaries. The core Manly area is still there and she won Mosman and Neutral Bay quite comfortably. Would have a lot of new constituents to introduce herself to though.


    Agreed that the current Chifley-Greenway boundary divides Blacktown LGA the wrong way. It may have made sense 20 years ago, but not today with how the area has evolved. The northern half of Blacktown LGA in many ways has more in common with the other side of (Old) Windsor Road than the other side of the M7. I say this as someone who has lived on both sides of (Old) Windsor Road – not sure if that makes me authoritative or biased on this matter!

    @High Street

    I’m trying to figure out what you’re aiming for. How is the seat straddling the Spit Bridge configured?

  16. Nicholas Weston
    Really impressive Map. Nothing like an accurate image of all the ideas. It remains to be seen whether the AEC will be bold enough to do anything like this.
    What do you think the chances are of the AEC messing up your nice neat Greenway by pinching 12000 voters for Macquarie !?. (instead of from Lindsay , as you’ve suggested !)). They could then take Mitchell, or Greenway further south.
    cheers WD

  17. Kylea Tink is the ‘Voices of’ candidate. Don’t like her chances. Whatever else Zimmerman is, he’s done everything he possibly can in the media to *sound* nice and moderate compared to Abbott, even if that’s an entirely meaningless distinction when considering his voting record. When there’s a contest between perception and reality, it’s hardly a contest at all.


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