Newcastle – Australia 2022

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  1. That fact that this will likely be surrounded by coalition seats with Macquarie,Dobell,Paterson,Shortland and Hunter all falling should seriously scare Labor. All of them are marginal and Labor has learned 0 from the last election and have gone further to the left. Albanese is from Labor’s left so there is no denying the party has gone to the left under his leadership.

    Newcastle should hold for Labor but could get a scare and could potentially make this a marginal! Seat but won’t fall as the margin is too great

  2. I don’t see Newcastle going anything close to blue even if Labor loses badly in other Hunter seats. Almost no swing in 2019 compared to huge swings in Hunter/Paterson/Shortland. Other factors aside, it’s a progressive city the size of Canberra, historically ALP, with a large university, 16% Green vote and a long term incumbent. Liberals got the state seat in 2011 but even that was due to poor OPV preference flows to Labor unlikely to be repeated federally (and that member got on the wrong side of ICAC).

    In fact I think the question in the other seats will be if “Newcastle suburbs” will be enough to outweigh LNP gains in coal country.


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