Moreton – Australia 2022

ALP 1.9%

Incumbent MP
Graham Perrett, since 2007.

Geography
Southern Brisbane. Moreton covers suburbs on the southern side of the Brisbane River to the south of the centre of Brisbane, including Sunnybank, Runcorn, Eight Mile Plains, Acacia Ridge, Coopers Plains, Rocklea, Salisbury, Moorooka, Oxley, Corinda, Graceville and Fairfield.

History

Moreton is an original federation electorate. For most of its history it has been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors, who held the seat from 1906 until 1990, but the seat was a bellwether seat from 1990 until 2013, when Labor retained the seat despite losing government.

Moreton was won in 1901 by independent labour candidate James Wilkinson, a former member of the colonial Legislative Assembly. Wilkinson was re-elected as an independent in 1903, and rejoined the ALP in 1904.

Wilkinson lost Moreton in 1906 to Anti-Socialist candidate Hugh Sinclair. Sinclair held the seat for over a decade, representing the Commonwealth Liberal Party and the Nationalist Party until his retirement in 1919.

Sinclair was succeeded in Moreton by former state MP Arnold Wienholt, also a Nationalist. Wienholt only held the seat for one term, retiring in 1922.

The seat was won in 1922 by Nationalist candidate Joseph Francis. Francis held the seat for over three decades. He served as a minister in the first term of the Lyons government from 1932 to 1934, and again served as a minister from the election of the Menzies government in 1949 until his retirement in 1955.

Moreton was won in 1955 by Liberal candidate James Killen. Killen was on the right wing of the Liberal Party, and held the seat for the next 29 years. At the 1961 election the Menzies government barely held on, and Killen’s seat of Moreton was the closest result. Indeed, Killen only held on due to Communist Party preferences leaking away from the Labor candidate. Killen served as a minister in the Gorton government from 1969 until 1971 but was dropped by William McMahon when he became Prime Minister.

Killen served as Minister for Defence in the Fraser government from 1975 until 1982, when a reshuffle saw him moved into a more junior role for the final year of the Fraser government. He retired in 1983 after the defeat of the Fraser government, triggering a by-election.

The ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron had previously held the seat of Griffith from 1966 to 1977, and then the seat of Fadden until the 1983 election, when he was defeated. He returned to Parliament as Member for Moreton and held it until the 1990 election, when he was defeated by Labor candidate Garrie Gibson, ending 84 years of Moreton being held by conservative parties.

Gibson held the seat until the 1996 election, when he lost to Liberal candidate Gary Hardgrave. Hardgrave served as a junior minister from 2001 until January 2007, when he was removed from the ministry in a reshuffle. Hardgrave lost the 2007 election to Labor candidate Graham Perrett.

Perrett has been re-elected four times.

Candidates

  • Peter Power (Federation)
  • Neil Swann (One Nation)
  • Graham Perrett (Labor)
  • Claire Garton (Greens)
  • Steven Huang (Liberal National)
  • Chelsea Follett (United Australia)
  • Assessment
    Moreton is very marginal. Perrett has managed to widen the gap between his local margin and the statewide total. Labor will be hoping to pick up ground in Queensland but if the gap was to narrow Perrett could be in trouble.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Angela Owen Liberal National 37,01140.8+3.0
    Graham Perrett Labor 31,86435.2-1.6
    Patsy O’Brien Greens 15,18916.8+3.7
    William LawrenceOne Nation3,0023.3+3.3
    Jenny-Rebecca BrownUnited Australia Party2,0152.2+2.2
    Aaron NieassConservative National Party1,5611.7+1.7
    Informal2,7993.0-1.1

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Graham Perrett Labor 47,04551.9-2.1
    Angela Owen Liberal National 43,59748.1+2.1

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, south and west.

    The ALP won a small 53% majority in the south and a much bigger 60% majority in the north-east. The LNP won 52.5% in the west.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 12.6% in the south to 25% in the north-east.

    Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    South12.652.925,49128.1
    North-East25.060.017,70719.5
    West17.747.59,15210.1
    Pre-poll15.749.121,46223.7
    Other votes15.347.816,83018.6

    Election results in Moreton at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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    114 COMMENTS

    1. I live in this seat (Moorooka) and the thing that makes me think this is a sleeper, is the sheer numbers of candidate parties that live on the right hand side of the ledger and the small margin that Perrott has, with the additional need for Green preferences to get him over the line. This is for me, the very definition of heart attack territory.

      There are 6 candidates and four of them I would say lean right (sorry Robbie I also looked at the Australian Federation Party material and it is an anti-vax party). Provided the preferences flows in the way expected, that is potentially a lot of votes that will eventually go towards the LNP, which will have to be made up from Green voters, given the ALP are not setting the world on fire in Queensland voter’s mind according to other polling.

      One thing that is often not mentioned, is that Labor have more marginal seats going into this election than the Coalition. The assumption is that Labor will get an uniformed swing across most seats and therefore these most marginal seats will be safe. I think that is an unsafe assumption, this is going to be an election of swings and roundabouts. There is likely to be more than a couple of surprise results in a few seats once all the votes have been counted.

      I just wish I had a Teal candidate to vote for, as I really can’t in good faith put a 1 against any of these 6 candidates.

    2. @Neil, I agree with your assessment that Queensland will be a territory of swings and roundabouts this election. These swings in either direction will be dependent on preference flows from the Greens and micro-parties. The swings will also likely differ between different urban profiles (inner-city & urban regional vs outer-suburban & rural). I also agree with you that Moreton is one of LNP’s best prospects for a potential surprise pickup in Queensland. I have mentioned elsewhere on this site that I also believe Blair to be a similarly likely LNP prospect but for different reasons.

      A major change in the dynamic of Moreton this election will be Huang’s Asian background including his profile in local council, which might well be appealing to the electors in Moreton – who represent the largest Chinese diaspora community in Queensland.

      With Greens anticipated to put on a strong showing in Queensland this election, you could expect to see some booths around Moorooka in the north, encompassing electors which are within the “cycling-belt” to strengthen their support for the Greens. Whereas in the South I expect support to firm for the LNP where the Chinese diaspora is the most concentrated.

      Both of these two-winds don’t necessarily blow in Labor’s favour and might reduce this down to a knife’s edge on election night.

    3. @ SEQ Observer

      Obviously I will be keeping an eye on this seat on the night, but it hasn’t come up on the radar of most other media “experts” as a seat to watch.

      But just looking at the 2019 1st preference vote, Labor lost that to the LNP by a significant number 35.2% to 40.8%, which to my simple mind means Perrott is at the mercy of the vagaries of Green 1st preference voters. Now you could say, where else could they go, but when combined with the other right hand side parties, it is starting to become a bigger hill to climb.

      I can only go by what I see and experience around my part of the “hood”, but I would make two observations:

      1. There has been a lot of housing redevelopment occurring. Older housing being knocked down to be replaces with either newer bigger single dwellings or two small lots. They all appear to be of a good quality (i.e. not cheap jobs), so I don’t know how this will play out with the newer residential / changed demographics.

      2. I am not always sure that the Chinese diaspora vote as a single block. I have a number of ABC (Australian Born Chinese) friends and they certainty don’t vote for a person because the candidate is of the same heritage. Although I do concede for a number of the older diaspora this can be a significant influence, but I just think (as a generalisation) they tend to be entrepreneurial minded and therefore drawn more to the LNP, than Labor.

    4. I think you would find being a well known local Councillor is more important than Huang’s ethnicity. If he was less known but Adian he wouldn’t appeal as much, but he has strong connections to the Asian and broader community which they will judge him on.

      I doubt it falls now due to the national factors, but if this was a better election or even line ball I would have it falling before Lilley.

    5. Peter Power (Federation)
      https://ausfedparty.com.au/candidate/peter-power/

      Would the admins of this page, please update it so in the interest of openness and transparency ALL candidates are listed, with website links? Thanks.

      I wouldn’t waste my vote on any of the majors. Pauline Hanson, Clive Palmer and the Greens are too scary to contemplate, so that really leaves only one “Independent Representative” party left. Pretty clear choice…

    6. There is only one admin, me, and I’ve already explained that candidate lists are closed.

      I checked the Federation Party website about 2 days after nominations closed and not a single candidate had a page. I’m not going to go through and add 61 more candidates now, I’ve got a lot of other work to do. The candidate URL is missing because (unlike every other party) Federation couldn’t get their shit together.

    7. Why are Hanson and Palmer too scary to contemplate, but the Federation Party are not? They’re all anti-vax nutjobs, or at least willing to pander to the anti-vax nutjobs to get votes.

    8. If candidates can not have the sense to get the information to Tally Room months before the election it is their own fault. If was living in Moreton I would be voting for Federation Party candidate but Ben is human. A registered political party should be chasing Ben long before the close of nominations. When I was running the State campaign for minor parties my instructions to candidates included advise Tally Room that you are standing with an e- mail address for Ben and make sure that Tally Room is monitored for your seat at least once every 24 Hours. The Federation Party would have my instructions because each candidate and their National Executive each received the instructions. Prior preparation and planning prevents piss poor performance. One should be asking if a candidate can not organise an election campaign can they organise a government.
      Far too many minor party candidates try to join the party on the basis if I am candidate I will join, join, get defeated and then dissapear never to help the party again.
      As I said I would vote for Federation Party if in Moreton.

    9. @Ben Raue, well if you’re too busy to do it, then appoint me temporarily as a lowly Moderator and I will add all 61 AFP candidates. Email me direct and I will spend the entire weekend and update the whole site so it’s complete.

      And before you start falsely accusing the party of not getting its shit together, the truth is you should blame the AEC for wasting people’s time and not doing their job in processing the parties election details, to allow the party to get its shit together!

    10. @Robbie go jump in the lake. Ben does a terrific job with this website and it is a credit to him.

    11. The AEC has absolutely nothing to do with notifying people that you’re running and putting up candidate information on your website.

    12. James I fully agree with you.
      If I were living in Moreton Federation Party would have my vote.
      TheFederation party we’re late deciding who their candidates would be. Ben has exceeded his obligations. If Federation party want to be included in Ben’s analysis they need to get info in before Ben writes his analysis.

    13. @James, get effed jerk off! I never once criticised Ben for the work done on this website. As a voter of this electorate, all we wanted was fair, balanced and transparent representation for ALL candidates, but instead of that we got whining and complaining about not updating this information, when people volunteered and put their hand up to help him out and get it done.

      And on that point, every other website covering the candidates never complained or bitched about issues or delays with those links and information from the various parties. They just got on and got it done, irrespective of the circumstances, because that’s what you do if you want your website to be respected and followed by the community as a relied upon and well regarded source of that information. If instead you wanna bitch and complain and not do it, then don’t be surprised if people look to other sources and disregard yours cos you whinged like a sook.

      At the end of the day, it comes down to the old saying: “If you’re going to do the job, then do it properly, or don’t bother doing it at all.” In other words, don’t make excuses, make the time and “Suck it up Princess and just do it!”

      It has since been discovered, on top of issues with the AEC, (which has been confirmed by the AEC that they did in fact, mess up the processing for the party and its candidates), the primary executive of the party had also been in hospital and was extremely unwell. Again, instead of bitching about, how about showing a bit of compassion, support and understanding, instead of being pricks about it…

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