Moreton – Australia 2022

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  1. Graham Perrett has never exactly been a star Labor performer, and was likely helped by both the LNP’s preselection choice and an increase in the Greens’ primary vote last election (his personal vote fell). The south-eastern part of the electorate is the heart of Brisbane’s Chinese community, and while it used to be a reliable Labor constituency it’s since drifting to the LNP, presumably because of enduring cultural conservatism as well as increased affluence. The Northern part, particularly the suburbs overlapping the district of Miller is going the opposite direction, following the trend of most of the inner-city suburbs as a growing source of progressive strength, both for the ALP and the Greens. However, this time the Greens have preselected a trans-woman which is… well, it’s a risky choice, for a seat that’s overall not especially progressive, and particularly since she very obviously doesn’t ‘pass’, not to be indelicate. The Greens have never been strong around Sunnybank but there are a lot more casual Greens voters in the north, ‘tree-tories’, potentially, and I wonder how some of them are going to react, if they end up passing on the Greens’ HTV after seeing Claire on lawn signs and mailers. I’d like to think Australia isn’t yet in the throes of the kind of transphobic hysteria that’s increasingly gripping the UK, for instance, that the vast majority can look past the superficialities, but we’ll see. Having said all that I expect the seat to go the way of the prevailing winds, like Lilley. If the polls hold up then so will Perrett. If Labor end up having another bad year then I doubt he’ll survive it.

  2. I agree, possible LNP gain and it won’t even be close if Scott Morrison gets his act together. (Look at the 2012 results I think you’ll find this was LNP 5%+ when the state voted something like 63-37 so a 58-42 is only 5% from that which was the result last time.

  3. I feel like every election we say this could fall. Labor has had some bad federal elections in the post 07 era….2010, 2013 and last one was a shocker in Qld, yet Labor managed to hold it. I’m not sure what it is but there must just be enough loyal Labor here to get them over the line. Also as lame as Albo is, he isn’t Shorten hated.

  4. Any seat held in and out of government…by Labor is likely to remain . There was only a slight swing here despite this election being on par with 1996 and 1975 in qld for Labor.. I suspect there are pro alp demographic changes happening

  5. Have you guys actually looked at the private polling of the parties in your many calculations. There is obviously a conservative bias in your predictions. city seats will swing to labor
    in Queensland Moreton is a labor hold with Graham Perrett well known in the area.


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