Moore – Australia 2022

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27 COMMENTS

  1. Vince Connelly, MP for abolished Stirling, is planning to challenge Ian Goodenough for the Liberal preselection.

    I’ve lived in Moore or neighbouring Cowan for all but 2 years of my life, currently in Moore now, and would love it if Connelly knocked out the useless Goodenough!

  2. Anton Kreitzer
    SENSATIONAL!!!!!!. Agree with every word you have said.

    Dare i ask your opinion about whether Goodenough might have been challenged earlier if he was not asian ?
    Is there tokenism in play ? It has always seemed not that Ian failed to get there on merit, but even that merit was impossible to discern !
    cheers WD

  3. @winediamond

    I think Albert Jacob may have gone for the seat had Connelly’s not been abolished, I don’t see it as anything to do with Goodenough’s ancestry. More to do with his ties to Globalheart Church, which is a BIG megachurch in Joondalup. Jacob is also a member of the church, but served as a minister in the Barnett state government, and is now Mayor of Joondalup council.

  4. Goodenough is simply not good enough for Moore. Liberal hold regardless but should be marginal if the current polls are anything to believe. Tangrey and Canning fall before this in a catastrophic year for the Libs.

    So Vince finally realised he can’t win in Cowan? He might have stood a better chance than a generic liberal candidate however

    If Morrison intervenes to help Goodenough it could make this seat vulnerable because they learned it the hard way in Gilmore.

  5. This will be the real test for WA Liberals to see how powerful the factions are and whether they learnt anything from the last state election.

    If Goodenough stays then the factions are too strong and the Liberals learnt nothing. Moore is in play for Labor if Goodenough stays. Just look at the WA swings in the 1983 election.

    How much does the Liberal Party want to stay in power.

  6. Anton Kreitzer
    What is it with pollies & their weird churches of the fringe. Then therein the religion of the greens, & the high priests of that cult….!

  7. wd
    I assume that means Extinction Rebellion and Greenpeace are churches?

    I agree though, regardless of Goodenough’s ethnicity, he is the second most useless of WA’s entire parliamentary delegation after Steve Irons in terms of lack of effort. Labor will struggle to win, but there’s a lot of voters in WA who voted Labor for the first time at the state election, and anything is possible.

    Labor hold all the state seats which overlap (Kingsley, Joondalup, Hillarys, Carine, Burns Beach) and while Carine would probably not vote Labor in for a while the federal government over here are so unpopular that nothing can surprise me anymore.

  8. I’ve previously lived in this seat and I know more people who live within Moore than any other seat in the country. Labor would only win this if the stars align, the Liberals could nominate somebody with the talent of a brick (as they did in 2013) and even in a good year for Labor, expect to hold.

    That being said, Carine through to Burns Beach swung very strongly to Labor across 2017 & 2021 and polling does seem to strongly indicate that a chunk of that monstrous swing McGowan got in his favour back in March has stuck around (exacerbated by certain comments by certain leaders). Although polling can give us a snapshot into how voters are feeling right now, it won’t say much as to how those same voters will actually cast their votes in 6-8 months time, too much is TBD here.

    If Goodenough is re-nominated, Connolly’s challenge goes down in flames on full display in the public eye and Labor nominate a decent candidate, expect the swing to put this seat into marginal territory (sub 4%)

    If Connolly succeeds expect nothing substantial to happen, maybe a 3-5% swing to Labor, but nothing that won’t be reversed in 2025.

  9. How likely is Goodenough to lose preselection? From what little I know about him he seems to spend his entire life stacking his branch.

  10. If Goodenough wins preselection – it means that Pearce, Husluck and Swan are changing with Canning and Tangney in play. If he holds on I would suggest that Moore is more likely to fall than Canning and Tangney.

  11. I think Goodenough is not good enough to be able to continue his next to non-eventful parliamentary career. Sashay away.

  12. So now Goodenough has won pre-selection is this a seat that is a possible for Labor. As per a comment before I think this is more likely to be a Labor seat than Canning and Tangney. In election there is always one outlier seat that falls in an election. I think Moore is the seat

  13. Vince Connelly to be encouraged to run in Pearce instead as a consolation prize? Seems like although it was close (39-36), Ian Goodenough’s connections as the sitting member meant he held the cards.

  14. Would Vince Connelly get parachuted into Pearce if Christian Porter decides to pull the pin or is given a tap on the shoulder? A WA perspective would be welcomed.

  15. Porter won’t go. The guy has the biggest ego in WA. He will stay and fight on to satisfy his ego. Vince Connelly in my opinion would have a decent chance in Perth. The Stirling parts redistributed to Perth were strong Liberal territory and makes Perth an even more marginal seat.

    Patrick Gorman doesn’t seem to be as popular has Tim Hammond and Stephen Smith were in Perth. He seems to be one of those people made in a lab and spend their entire life preparing to run for Parliament.

    The Liberal candidates in Perth in the previous Elections have been totally incompetent and were given next to zero campaign resources. So I think if Connelly runs in Perth and Libs give it a good go, they might have a chance.

  16. Winediamond – is the question to patreon is that sarcastic? Obviously you never lived in Western Australia, went to university with Porter and followed his career. He is one out of touch guy and always was.

  17. James
    No We all see things that others do, & don’t . When anyone makes a very strong or emphatic statement, or judgement, it can be revealing, or intriguing as to why, & what is their experience.
    For instances two closest “hollywood Archetypes (male) would be Sean Bean, & Clint Eastwood obviously he doesn’t have their physicality, which is why they are stars.

  18. Lets talk about the seat of Moore on the site. Is it possible for Labor to win it, now the Liberals have selected Goodenough over Connelly. Something tells me it is more likely for Labor to win this seat over Canning and Tangney even though the margin is so large. Interesting at the 2007 election, Labor won 3 seats with margins of 10% of more.

  19. James
    Fine, but you did ask.
    Everyone is getting way ahead of themselves. McGowan has done a good, if not excellent job of igniting WA parochialism, if not paranoia about the Libs/Fed being the “adversary”, or victimiser (of poor WA !) So it’s reasonable to expect a moderate swing against the libs statewide.

    Any prediction to quantify that, is going to be intuitive/instinctive, more than analytical. Essentially a guess.
    Instinct would move me to suggest that more than 4% would be unlikely, as still can’t see Albo making anyone feel very compelled (about much at all). Therefore seeing a seat like Moore flip is not impossible but as unlikely as me receiving an apology (for anything!) from my first wife (Mrs WD mk1!).
    cheers WD

  20. It would be too soon to call this a Labor gain but the way things are looking yes it could be vulnerable. It will be decided within 5% so it will be marginal regardless.

    Why would young liberals who are usually more moderate back Goodenough? Any explanation for this? The young is typically less religious than the older generations so I wouldn’t think the young liberals have any association whatsoever with the Pentecostal churches.

  21. I agree with you WD. The published polling is showing a swing and a healthy one at that. However, it is not indicative of the wipeout that some seem to be pushing. That belief seems to be entirely predicated on the State election results which – and I know I sound like a broken record – are very rarely transposable to Federal elections. Covid may change that, but I am decidedly unconvinced.

    The Libs have been overperforming in WA for 15 years. My feeling is that the State will return to a more historical norm – 50/50 or thereabouts. I would be very surprised if Labor achieved a swing greater than 5-6%.

  22. Daniel – I don’t think Young Liberals are more moderate. Most everything I hear about them makes them sound like a mix between Liberal Party legacies and obnoxious fratboys/hardcore hard-right, or alt-right, headbangers. 4chan types.

  23. Lawngnome, as someone who used to be a member of the Young Libs, your characterisation is scarily accurate. The worst by far though had to be the arrogant rich kids. Ugh.

  24. That The Young Liberals are “moderate” could not be further from what I’ve observed. The only people in my generation who support the Liberal Party to the extent that they’d be interested in joining The Young Liberals are solidly right-wing at the very least, if not far-right.

    As a more general comment, Liberal supporters in my generation are on average significantly further to the right than Liberal supporters in my parents’ and grandparents’ generation. It takes strong conservative conviction for someone my age to be gravitated towards supporting the Liberal Party.

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