Menzies – Australia 2022

LIB 7.0%

Incumbent MP
Kevin Andrews, since 1991.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Menzies covers the entirety of Manningham council area as well as parts of Whitehorse council area and southern parts of the Nillumbik council area. Suburbs include Blackburn North, Bulleen, Doncaster, Donvale, Park Orchards, Templestowe and Warrandyte.

Redistribution
Menzies shifted south, losing most of its territory north of the Yarra, including Eltham, to Jagajaga, also losing Warranwood to Deakin, and gaining part of Mitcham from Deakin and Blackburn North and part of Nunawading from Chisholm. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 7.5% to 7.0%.

History
Menzies was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. It has always been held by the Liberal Party for its short history.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Liberal candidate Neil Brown. Brown had previously held the marginal seat of Diamond Valley on two occasions, holding it from 1969 to 1972 and 1975 to 1983. He had served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1981 to 1983. Brown was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 1985 to 1987, and retired in 1991.

The Menzies by-election in 1991 was easily won by Liberal candidate Kevin Andrews, with no Labor candidate standing. Andrews was a strongly conservative backbencher, and pushed through a private members’ bill in 1996 overturning the Northern Territory’s euthanasia laws. Andrews has been re-elected ten times.

Andrews was appointed as a junior minister in 2001 and was promoted to Cabinet in 2003. He was originally responsible for implementing the Workchoices policy after the 2004 election, and then served as Minister for Immigration.

Andrews moved to the backbench after the 2007 election, but returned to the frontbench after Tony Abbott was elected leader in late 2009. He served as a minister in the Abbott government, but was sacked after Malcolm Turnbull replaced Abbott as Prime Minister in 2015.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Kevin Andrews is not running for re-election.

  • Naomi Oakley (Labor)
  • Sanjeev Sabhlok (Federation)
  • Greg Cheesman (Liberal Democrats)
  • John Hayes (One Nation)
  • Keith Wolahan (Liberal)
  • Bill Pheasant (Greens)
  • Nathan Scaglione (United Australia)
  • Assessment
    Menzies is a safe Liberal seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Kevin Andrews Liberal 50,86351.7+1.950.9
    Stella Yee Labor 29,53930.0+3.130.5
    Robert Humphreys Greens 10,26410.4+0.110.1
    Teresa Mary KelleherDemocratic Labour Party3,0263.1+3.12.8
    Brett Stephen FullerUnited Australia Party2,6052.6+2.72.4
    Rachel PayneReason2,0292.1+2.11.5
    Others1.7
    Informal3,3763.3-1.2

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Kevin Andrews Liberal 56,56857.5-0.357.0
    Stella Yee Labor 41,75842.5+0.343.0

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.8% in the east to 54.2% in the west.

    The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.4% to 13.7%.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Central10.354.024,52724.2
    West9.454.214,19614.0
    East13.753.89,9749.8
    Pre-poll8.960.333,96733.5
    Other votes10.858.818,78618.5

    Election results in Menzies at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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    62 COMMENTS

    1. ABC has called this for the Liberals, shouldn’t have toppled Andrews in preselection as the lack of Andrews’ personal vote has been an issue.

    2. I don’t get the sense Kevin Andrews actually had a personal vote especially after 30 years and with his far right stances well known. If he remained, the swing would’ve been even more and this seat would have already flipped by now. The most likely explanation for the large swing is anger among the Chinese community in the seat against the Liberals since the areas the swung the most in the seat are the areas with the largest Chinese Australian populations given that this is also happening in other seats with large Chinese communities and this phenomena has happened in other countries before too.

    3. Can’t imagine Andrews having any positive personal vote given the issues that are leading seats like this to swing. I expect toppling him saved them here.

    4. Agree with Adda and John Smith, as long term resident i would concur with the above statements and dont believe KA had a personal vote.

    5. As a Manningham resident I would say that although I am a Liberal supporter, I voted for Labor this time round in the House of Reps (not the Senate where I voted Liberal) and I hope that Menzies falls to Labor since that means the Liberals would actually have to put effort in to win it back and Labor would be incentivised to put effort here to retain it. Menzies has been taken for granted for far too long. There are pressing local issues relating to infrastructure and other matters that need to be addressed not the least of which is the lack of rail public transport.

    6. Agree, the lack of Rail in Mannnigham is a deep concern it is the only LGA in Metro Melbourne without a rail line. The Doncaster Rail line was proposed over 100 years ago and is still not built even though Manningham desperately needs it. This has been a major frustration i have had with KA in a survey that he mailed i raised that and asked to advocate for it but he ignored me. Contrast this with Mary Wooldridge who represented much of the area in state Parliament and who fought hard for it. Also Alan Tudge despite his controversies actually advocates for the Rowville Rail line and Knox Tram extention. He secured $400 million for the Monash Rail project (First part of Rowville rail). Christian Porter advocated for money set aside for the Perth Freight link to be reassigned to the Ellenbrook and Yanchep rail extentions. Redcliffe Rail line in QLD has a similar history and was proposed over a 100 years ago. As Petrie was a marginal seat in 2010 both parties committed to it and it was built. The Hills District did not have rail until recently and is even more rock solid than Manningham despite this local representatives stood up and it was delivered.

    7. I have a feeling that for the inevitable redistribution before 2025, the Libs and Labor will swap each other’s proposals for the interface between Menzies, Chisholm and Deakin. Last time, the Libs advocated for the southern boundary to be at Whitehorse Road with the goal of making the then very safe Menzies less safe while making the marginal Deakin less marginal, resulting in 2 fairly safe Liberal seats. Labor advocated for Menzies to expand into Maroondah and Deakin into Whitehorse to make the then very safe Menzies more safe while making the marginal Deakin more marginal, resulting in 1 very safe Liberal seat and 1 marginal seat. Labor also came up with ridiculous boundaries for Chisholm that are obviously designed to shore up the Labor vote in the then marginal seat so it becomes fairly safe for Labor. Now with Chisholm solidly Labor and Deakin and Menzies incredibly marginal, the interests of both parties will be different.

    8. @Nicholas Many are angry that it’s not included in Stage 1 and fear it’s going to be an empty promise just like every single Doncaster Rail proposal that came before it. Might be another incentive to not vote for the Libs in the state election since they seem really keen to tear the SRL up, which will be even easier for Stage 2 since it hasn’t started construction or planning yet, like how Dan Andrews tore up the East West Link.

    9. To be fair Labor also hasn’t bothered with extending the SRL to Doncaster in Stage 1 since Manningham was rock solid Liberal anyways. This might change with how marginal Menzies is now.

    10. @Nimalan agree with you on the lack of Doncaster rail but isn’t that really the fault of state government?

    11. If Labor highlights the fact that the Liberals all but oppose the SRL they could possibly win Bulleen off the Libs at the state election, particularly if they extend stage 1 through to Doncaster.

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