Should be Liberal retain. The newly transferred areas from Chisholm have swung very strongly towards the ALP (nearly 10% margins) though so it may be interesting to see what happens after being transferred from a marginal seat to a safe seat. The new Liberal candidate seems to basically be another Andrew Hastie but not as far right as Kevin Andrews so Manningham will probably swing to him since Kevin Andrews is gone but the rest of the seat under the Eastern Freeway may swing to the ALP like the rest of the state.
On another note, I think to resolve the ridiculous southern boundary of the seat, the commission should’ve considered extending the southern boundary to Canterbury Road while giving up the eastern green wedge parts of the seat to Deakin. Something like @Nicholas Weston’s proposal would be ideal.
Menzies boundaries are a mess. They really should have North Warrandyte in Jagjaga & the other suburbs that fall in in the council area of Whitehorse in Deakin & Chisholm.
Andrews was MP for 31 years so I’m sure some will miss him (I would if I lived in this area)
Having worked with Andrews’ office he was a plodder and manipulated by the party factions especially younger ambitious people who were only in it for themselves. The world passed Andrews by 31 years ago
Agree the southern boundary is ridiculous. They unwound Higgins/Macnamara but left this??
I really don’t get much sense that Andrews has a strong personal vote here. It might be more like a Michael Danby situation, where regeneration from a polarising figure to younger talent actually improves the party’s vote.
Interesting how much of a social/political divide the Eastern Fwy is, so much so that every booth to the south is Labor and every booth to the north is Liberal.
Always thought of the Monash Fwy and the Yarra River being bigger social divides.
Adam, This is the seat where i grew up and lived virtually all my life. Menzies historically did not go south of the Eastern Freeway. Manningham LGA (where i live) is quite conservative and for the most part consists of more affluent ethnic communities and Nouveau riche. To give a Sydney comparison, if you drew an LGA starting at the M2 to include Castle Hill, West Pennant Hills, Cherrybrook, Beecroft, Dural and go into semi-rural areas such as Glenorie/Kenthurst that is Manningham. While the area South of the Eastern Freeway in Whitehorse LGA is more standard middle Class like Parramatta LGA (this area is more of a bellwether). So the M2 is a good comparision for the Eastern Freeway. It is not a sharp social divide as all areas in this seat are some spectrum of the middle class. Also the Yarra River is not a major social divide in this part of Melbourne compared to inner melbourne such as Kew versus Collingwood. For example Eaglemont in Jagajaga is more affluent than any suburb in Menzies.
I happen to have lived in Whitehorse LGA in Melbourne, and at various times in Hornsby, The Hills, and Parramatta LGAs in Sydney, and I can confirm that Nimalan’s comparison is spot on.
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Should be Liberal retain. The newly transferred areas from Chisholm have swung very strongly towards the ALP (nearly 10% margins) though so it may be interesting to see what happens after being transferred from a marginal seat to a safe seat. The new Liberal candidate seems to basically be another Andrew Hastie but not as far right as Kevin Andrews so Manningham will probably swing to him since Kevin Andrews is gone but the rest of the seat under the Eastern Freeway may swing to the ALP like the rest of the state.
On another note, I think to resolve the ridiculous southern boundary of the seat, the commission should’ve considered extending the southern boundary to Canterbury Road while giving up the eastern green wedge parts of the seat to Deakin. Something like @Nicholas Weston’s proposal would be ideal.
Menzies boundaries are a mess. They really should have North Warrandyte in Jagjaga & the other suburbs that fall in in the council area of Whitehorse in Deakin & Chisholm.
Andrews was MP for 31 years so I’m sure some will miss him (I would if I lived in this area)
Having worked with Andrews’ office he was a plodder and manipulated by the party factions especially younger ambitious people who were only in it for themselves. The world passed Andrews by 31 years ago
Agree the southern boundary is ridiculous. They unwound Higgins/Macnamara but left this??
I really don’t get much sense that Andrews has a strong personal vote here. It might be more like a Michael Danby situation, where regeneration from a polarising figure to younger talent actually improves the party’s vote.
Interesting how much of a social/political divide the Eastern Fwy is, so much so that every booth to the south is Labor and every booth to the north is Liberal.
Always thought of the Monash Fwy and the Yarra River being bigger social divides.
Adam, This is the seat where i grew up and lived virtually all my life. Menzies historically did not go south of the Eastern Freeway. Manningham LGA (where i live) is quite conservative and for the most part consists of more affluent ethnic communities and Nouveau riche. To give a Sydney comparison, if you drew an LGA starting at the M2 to include Castle Hill, West Pennant Hills, Cherrybrook, Beecroft, Dural and go into semi-rural areas such as Glenorie/Kenthurst that is Manningham. While the area South of the Eastern Freeway in Whitehorse LGA is more standard middle Class like Parramatta LGA (this area is more of a bellwether). So the M2 is a good comparision for the Eastern Freeway. It is not a sharp social divide as all areas in this seat are some spectrum of the middle class. Also the Yarra River is not a major social divide in this part of Melbourne compared to inner melbourne such as Kew versus Collingwood. For example Eaglemont in Jagajaga is more affluent than any suburb in Menzies.
I happen to have lived in Whitehorse LGA in Melbourne, and at various times in Hornsby, The Hills, and Parramatta LGAs in Sydney, and I can confirm that Nimalan’s comparison is spot on.