Melbourne – Australia 2022

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  1. What swing would be required to flip this from Greens to ALP? I find the 2PP with liberal party confusing to understand the actual margin in this seat.

  2. 2013 was the last time that the preference count was Green vs ALP. In that election it was 55.27% to the Greens on a primary vote of 42.6%. Taking into account that at the last election, the Greens won 49.3% of the PV, the margin is probably upwards of 12% – if not higher. For the ALP to be in with a show, it would seem that the Greens would need a primary vote starting with a 3 and a strong flow of Lib preferences to the ALP. I don’t think that Adam Bandt has much to worry about.

  3. Thanks redistributed.

    However, I do think it is relevant that Labor disendorsed their candidate in 2019, which would have inflated the greens vote. When you compare the result to Cooper, which saw a 15.5% swing against the Greens, Wills with a 4.3% swing against the Greens, and Macnamara with a stagnant Greens vote, it may be the case that the Greens would have suffered a swing against them in Melbourne with an endorsed Labor candidate.

    Obviously Bandt has a strong personal vote, and being leader of the party will add to that, but it is worth considering the loss of Greens primary votes in surrounding seats.

  4. Choice of candidate probably has an impact, with the Greens nominating a lower profile candidate for Cooper that caused some of the swing against them.


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