McMahon – Australia 2022

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  1. Chris Bowen
    What to say about this diabolically talentless clown that hasn’t already been said !? Well i guess i could continue on with my animal kingdom of politics comparisons !? I was thinking Wombat. But Wombats are likeable, strong, & endearing in a messy, uncensconcious casually destructive way. SO then i thought Rhinocerous as they are blind, stubborn, not very bright, & recklessly defiant !. However Rhino’s are noble, imposing, & powerful. Then it came to me “”PYGMY RHINOCEROS” !!!!. thats it !!!.

    Id’ particularly like to remind everyone of just one of Bowen’s numerous debacles as a 4 TIME FAILED minister, ^& shadow.>>>>>
    When laws are fair, MORE tax is collected ,the reverse is true also. It is known as “the virtuous circle” The Abbott govt “debt levy” that Bowen insanely proposes to re-introduce was a total, & spectacular failure, & wonderful example of this. The govt actually collected LESS tax from the highest & top rate, tax payers when it raised the rate from 47% to 49% !!.THAT is an historical fact.

  2. I agree WD, Chris Bowen is an absolute clown. If Labor did lose this seat (not going to happen given the SSM vote is a thing of the past now) it’d be a good excuse to get in an MP who was representative of the area (i.e. not some white Labor party hack).
    On the lighter side, he can speak fluent Indonesian.

  3. Ryan Spencer
    Nice to find agreement on something. Perhaps that could be Bowen’s singular positive achievement of consensus !.
    The interesting what if is around the original AEC PROPOSED McMahon boundaries which EXCLUDED Fairfield, & included the lib voting NW of Fowler. Labor objected but it might have been close. I’D have loved to see Bowen go down.
    Bowen was never , & is probably still not seen as a “HACK”. The reality is that he is the effect, not the cause.

    As for Indonesian. Well you have to walk before you can run. It would have been better if he had learned to think logically in ENGLISH, & common sense ,before attempting to comprehend another language.

  4. IIRC the originally estimated margin for the Fairfield-less McMahon was something like 2-3%. Although this was coming off the high water mark of 2013.

    I don’t know much about demographics in this part of Sydney, but it certainly seems to be some of the more affluent/middle-class parts of the western suburbs. It’s really only the rock-solid margins in Fairfield itself that keeps this reasonably safe for Labor.

  5. Indeed, much of McMahon west of the Cumberland Highway represents what you could call “middle Sydney”, in the sense that socioeconomic scores are roughly around the 50th percentile.

    What’s interesting in this regard is the northwestern corner of McMahon – initially it seems a little strange to be scraping off a few suburbs that are in different LGAs and not all that connected with the rest of the electorate. The justification (aside from numerical constraints) is that Minchinbury is much more affluent than the rest of the Mount Druitt area, and Erskine Park and St Clair are much more affluent than the rest of the St Marys area.

    The southwestern corner of this district may see significant population growth in the near future. However, I certainly wouldn’t expect new residents to be voting 70% Liberal as the current residents do. (People who live on acreages tend to be very inclined to vote Liberal!)

    Again I would caution against assuming population growth necessarily benefits the Liberals. McMahon has a prime example in the suburb of Pemulwuy, a new suburb ranking in the 97th percentile on the IRSAD, which voted 56.5% Labor in 2019, almost exactly how McMahon voted overall.

  6. Chris Bowen, for all his faults, has always had an association with McMahon (the former Prospect) and the wider Fairfield area his entire life. The issue with replacing Bowen is who do you get as a replacement, long-term? Frank Carbone, the logical candidate, is no longer part of the ALP. Ninos Khoshaba is a failed state MP who couldn’t hold on to Smithfield in the 2011 wipeout, partly due to a fracturing of the Assyrian vote in the seat. Hugh McDermott is doing a reasonable job as the State MP for Prospect, and Guy Zangari is doing better than I expected as the Fairfield MP. Do you put one of those two in, once Bowen goes? Or do you go the Carl Scully route for those with long memories, and import an outsider, if you’re Labor? There’s no one candidate out there from the Labor side who can be said to represent the seat on purely ethnic grounds which was a groundless criticism from a previous poster in relation to Bowen.

    Bowen’s big scare came in 2013. He should have lost the seat, but a superb ground campaign (I recall it being very dirty, though), and a Liberal candidate who had more links to Liverpool than the Fairfield area saved him. Obviously, 2019 saw a swing against him, mostly due to his policies as Treasurer. As I argued a number of elections ago (See comments re: 2013 Federal election for McMahon, and 2011 State Election for Smithfield), Bowen has never been overly popular in this seat, with the exception of east of the Cumberland Highway. This is due to a more discerning electorate to the west, and for those with long memories, the fact that he was part of Fairfield Council with some odious characters on the Labor, Liberal and Independent sides. Bowen’s actual record on council compared to the others was vastly superior, and reflected well on him in a moral sense as well.

    Bowen is still the best politician in the Fairfield area, although Carbone, Zangari and McDermott are getting closer on ability. He won’t lose this seat, and after the COVID debacle that has sent a proud area into lockdown, and some unfair targeting of Fairfield from a feral mainstream press, he can expect a better than average swing in 2022. If Labor lose this election, I expect this to be his last election as the member for McMahon.

  7. Vivek Singha – the Liberal candidate at the last election – was the Science Party candidate for Greenway in 2016. He’s a good bloke with a very impressive resume, including founding the Australian branch of the FOXG1 Foundation, a non-profit organisation funding research into and supporting those affected by brain disorders. He always seems to be out-and-about, attending fundraisers and other community events, and posting videos of himself onto social media – the sorts of things you’d expect from an MP!

    He definitely has much stronger links with Greenway than McMahon. The Liberal Party preselecting him for McMahon instead of Greenway was a missed opportunity.

    Most within the Science Party dislike the Liberal Party, so it was a surprise for some to see him make the switch. But even in his 2016 candidacy, it was apparent that he is more conservative than the typical Science Party supporter. Ultimately he felt that he could achieve more in a major party.

    I wouldn’t know what his intentions are for the next federal election.


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