Macnamara – Australia 2022

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  1. There’s a typo in the breakdown of results by area, it says Labor were a distant third in St Kilda but that should say Liberal (23.6%), Labor were a close second in that area.

  2. Will be an interesting watch to see if labor hold on or the Greens pick this up. The Greens have a real shot of wining here.

  3. I agree. I think it would have been a near-certain Greens gain had Caulfield, with the lowest Greens vote in the electorate, been swapped out for effectively the balance of a Greens-held state seat (Prahran).

    However, despite that not happening and actually losing Windsor, the Greens still have a real shot. 2016 had them only 477 votes off leapfrogging Labor on these boundaries.

    2019 saw a huge swing to Labor, mostly at the expense of the Liberals but that still widened the gap between Labor & The Greens, but also partly at the expense of the Greens who should have increased their vote with the addition of Windsor but didn’t, indicating they went backwards elsewhere.

    Shorten and the bold redistributive Labor agenda wasn’t toxic here like it was in other parts of the country, and I think Albanese with Labor’s watered down agenda on both climate and tax will hurt Labor here.

    I think the Liberal vote won’t change much from 2019 as it already hit a pretty low mark for a relatively affluent seat (although any further anti-LNP swing could favour the Greens more this time than last time), but there could be a significant swing from Labor to Greens among progressive voters disappointed with Labor’s “safe” (albeit necessary to do well in WA and QLD) agenda.

    If the Greens can get up over 27%, and Labor down to 28-29%, there’s a good chance they could overtake them on minor party preferences.

  4. Wasn’t the Liberal candidate in Macnamara in 2019 a bit of a dud? The jewish voters in Caulfield will always keep the Greens in third place. The issue of Israel / Palestine will see voters happy to vote Labor but never Green – same goes for Wentworth too. Greens best chance is if the boundaries are changed (as proposed) but not implemented.

  5. The retention of the Caulfield ‘tail’ redistribution in and redistribution out absolutely beggars belief. In the draft it comes out, in the final it comes back in – what we have is an electorate boundary totally tailored to the electoral convenience of Michael Danby and Josh Burns – and by extension to the right wing faction of the ALP. If the ALP ever did lose this seat – to the Libs, Greens or whoever – it would be interesting to see if it survived the next redistribution.

  6. I agree totally redistributed. It’s clear that the objections to moving Caulfield into Higgins have nothing to do with splitting the Jewish community, because almost the entire Jewish community in Macnamara was being moved together as a single block and would have been moved into a seat that has a larger Jewish population than the remainder of Macnamara does, effectively creating an even stronger community of interest.

    The objections are purely related to the political influence that the area’s Jewish organisations have established with the local ALP branch over the last few decades, that’s what they don’t want to lose by moving into a new seat.

    That’s why I think if the Greens were able to able to win Macnamara off Labor prior to a redistribution and break that cycle, those objections wouldn’t happen next time. Zionism Australia isn’t going to campaign to remain in a Greens seat.

    I do think the Greens can win on current boundaries because they came so close in 2016 already. Of the 3 regions in the seat, Caulfield has lowest vote share and if anything usually votes a little more Liberal than last time, while St Kilda has the largest vote share and the long term trend there is ALP to Greens. But a win would be right down to the wire and probably rely on the Greens winning from third, like in Prahran.

    If the Greens do get that ‘foot in the door’ though with a narrow win, and that does result in fewer objections to removing Caulfield next time, then a subsequent redistribution would probably solidify the seat for them.

  7. In my experience the supposed unswerving fealty to Israel among Australian Jews and Jews outside of Israel more broadly is really overstated, especially once you step outside the boomer/early gen-X demographic. Jewish ‘community leaders’ tend to be pretty far out of step with their communities on this one, especially in more moderate Jewish sects. It’s not a perfect yardstick by any means, but if you look at the Marriage Law Postal Survey results, Melbourne Ports had one of the highest Yes votes in the entire country, over 80% in fact. On paper it’s really a very progressive seat despite the gerrymandering. Furthermore, Michael Danby was really quite unpopular and arguably one of the biggest reasons Melbourne Ports was historically a marginal. Josh Burns improved a lot on Danby’s vote, but the Greens’ vote held up, in a year the Victorian Greens did really badly in (with the exception of Adam Bandt). I don’t believe Macnamara’s completely out of their grasp, at least not yet.

  8. Furtive I agree. I’m picturing a few things here.

    1. In the 2019 election the Labor “brand” was riding high after a landslide state election win and soaring popularity for Dan Andrews, which has certainly cooled down a bit. Albert Park had one of the biggest Labor swings in th country too.

    I know state results don’t equal federal results but brand is important. And the Labor brand was strong in these parts.

    2. Around Caulfield, the Jewish community may swing a little towards the Liberals. Not enough for the Libs to win the seat, but it will help reduce the margin between Labor & the Greens.

    3. As I said in the Melbourne post, Labor going to the election with a less progressive platform than 2019 will probably result in a transfer of votes from Labor to Greens here too. This will be most pronounced in the most progressive suburbs like St Kilda, Elwood and Balaclava.

    4. Morrison’s unpopularity is arguably more pronounced here now than it was in 2019. He really is hated around here. Just yesterday I saw a guy in a ‘F*** SCOMO” t-shirt. This will probably result in a little more of a swing away from the Libs in the suburbs that had previously been trending Liberal before 2019 (Port Melbourne, South Melbourne, Albert Park), but in 2019 it pretty much all went to Labor and this time, for the reasons outlined above in #3, I think the Greens will get a bigger share of it.

    I still think Labor will hold on these boundaries, but my prediction is their margin will slightly grow against the Liberals in the 2PP count, but their primary vote and margin against the Greens in the 3PP vote will both shrink.

    I’m predicting the 3PP count will be somewhere along the lines of:
    39% Liberal
    Just over 31% Labor
    Just under 30% Greens

    Resulting in a 2PP of around 57-43 ALP.

    ….and hopefully this is the last election on these ridiculous boundaries, and then Caulfield can join Malvern, Carnegie and Murrumbeena in Higgins where it belongs, and the Chapel Street corridor can be united in Macnamara where it belongs.


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