Longman – Australia 2022

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  1. I hear Terry Young is popular here, and there has been no news or talk about Susan Lambs plans.

    If Lamb declines then this should swing to the LNP, Lamb won’t win but if she runs she could get a tiny swing to her but it’s going to be hard to defeat Young because he is no Wyatt Roy. I expect him to get PHON preferences unlike Roy.

    This is definitely essential for a Labor victory which won’t happen, But I believe Brisbane,Dickson and Leichhardt will fall before this does under the current circumstances.

    Young to be re-elected, He is popular. I’d like to hear Andrew Jacksons opinion on Terry Young if he’s around since he is the only one on here that lives in Longman that I know of.

  2. @Daniel

    I don’t think Susan Lamb will be contesting again. It was reported that she has moved out of the electorate.

  3. It seems to me like Labor’s 2016 win here was a mere fluke/protest vote, and the 2018 byelection was retained by ALP solely because Section 44 was BS. Seats like Dickson and Petrie seem more winnable for Labor than here.

    Labor got a nice state election pick up here, but I’m not seeing the 2016 ALP voters that switched back to LNP in 2019 voting Labor now.

    I think Labor’s best hope in Queensland is the Greens in Brisbane and Ryan

  4. @John

    John your comment ‘Labor’s best hope in Queensland is the Greens in Brisbane and Ryan’ is rubbish. Even the Greens themselves have listed their best chance in QLD is Griffith which is attempting to take off a seat from Labor. I predict the Greens won’t get in the final two party preferred vote in a seat in QLD.

    Its not all doom and gloom for Labor in Queensland. A Newspoll suggested there had been a 5% swing for Labor in QLD and its now 53-47 in favor of the Liberals which if happened on unified state swing Labor would win Longman.

    It would have to be unified swing though, and the incumbent in Longman will likely have the benefit of a sophomore surge. Newspoll has been wrong before like it was last election and because the state of QLD is so decentralised statewide trends tend to be more unpredictable. Simply Labor can’t afford to go further backwards in QLD and will hoping that last election was the low point and their will be somewhat a correction swing.

    Where the One Nation vote goes will likely decide the seat.

  5. Daniel
    Thanks for request.
    I agree Terry Young has very little of the opposition that Wyatt Roy attracted. His problem is that he is nearly invisible. Local Papers have gone and this makes job of communicating with the electorate much more difficult. Terry Young has distributed a couple of newsletters and done a survey of voters views. My inclination is that Longman will go the same way as Queensland as a whole. COVID 19 Makes any prediction a brave one. So far there has been no labor campaign and the only rumours that I’ve heard is that one of the defeated mayoral candidates might make a stand as an independent. However as this individual was soundly beaten by our mayor I doubt if he could even Man polling booths.
    Unless things go horribly wrong I’m inclined to think that the government will be returned nationally but it’s not inconceivable that Albanese Will be able to win. My prediction is no elections till April next year when there are a couple of dates available.
    When I see any activity in Brisbane Northern fringe I will report.
    Campbell Newman’s defection to Lib Dems will me sure I put that part down with Greens and Pauline Hanson below the majors.
    in the Senate Katter has lost all interest outside of NQ which means he would need to poll 50% in every seat in NQ to get a statewide Senate Quota.

  6. Andrew
    I think Covid will be the key here. Now the LNP heartland has always bee nt e retirement people on Bribie but this is a group that wants lock downs and will not be so keen on the Morrison free for all, despite highish levels of vaccination.

    Even the One Nation types and anti lockdowners may do a double take if as is now likely Covid takes hold and they start to see friends and loved ones getting very sick and even dying.

    Also parents of young children. There is little likelihood of a vaccine for this group before the next election and i think we will see a lot of very frightened parents. Childcare centres will close and many parents will leave the workforce or enlist their parents (ie the residents of Bribie) to care for their little ones. To protect the little ones a lot of normal social activities for the residents will end.

    The other factor which will affect votes in this electorate may be an anti NSW sentiment.

  7. That’s exactly what happened at the state election last year. Seats with high retiree populations and formerly high One Nation votes swung hard to Labor.

  8. Ryan
    Yes the real issue will be the extent to which higher vaccination levels give more confidence. However Qld recent experience with the outbreak in a primary school (and the two most prestigious private schools) may be a factor too.

    Covid might also be a factor in Ryan where Qld’s recent COVID outbreak was concentrated. I am inclined to the view that Ryan is the greens best hope, because there is division still within the local LNP, there is a new development planned which will anger the locals, especially those associated with the council as Simmonds is and i am told a good active greens candidate. Now the ALP is also re-running a now well known candidate(Peter Cosser) and is in with a chance, based on the last election. However the seat is a now classic three way. Much will depend on where disaffected LNP voters go – to ALP or Greens.

    In theory Brisbane may be a better Greens target but a much more compatible LNP candidate will make it harder to win for them.

  9. Maverick
    Really !? “I think Covid will be the key here.” Really.?. Morrison’s “Free for all” !? Really !?
    What is the overseas experience ?

  10. The Resolve poll from the SMH actually has the Coalition holding up surprisingly well. Quite apart from my issues with their methodology, I tend to think this is an outlier. That said, maybe we shouldn’t be too quick to jump on the narrative that the vaccination and lockdown will terminally damage the Coalition.

  11. Wine
    I am basing my comments on the last Qld state election and i do not think attitudes have changed all that much.

    Morrison’s open up now, even with the virus rampaging in NSW I suspect will be unpopular in retirement Qld as well as with parents of young children.

    I am not sure what you meant by overseas experience but what i see of it to date would not support opening up early. In the UK for example yesterday there were31,914 cases of COVID, 40 deaths and 6,441 hospitalisations. Translating that figure to Australia would be about 2,500 hospitalisations daily and an annual death toll of about 5,500. In fact the UK death toll has been more like 100/day lately so 5,500 is a very low estimate. i think 2,500 is hospital daily would rapidly overtake our health servicing capacity and we would see older people being denied care.

    Israeli experience is also terrible since despite the world’s highest vaccination rates surging infections and the need for a third round of vaccine for everyone over 50.

  12. maverick
    Given that we have very different views on the subject. Lets leave it at this —i don’t share your alarm, or apprehension. Extrapolating from a presumed infection case NUMBER that huge is “out there”!!. Glossing over a presumption of reaching that level of infection is ….”Audacious”!!

    What has undeniably changed in the last 48 hrs is that Covid has been totally politicised, & positions have been completely polarised. Clearly debate over this issue has become very influential . Crucially NSW seems to be leading, & there seems to be a building expectation of reward for compliance. IMV this will spread & become irresistible .
    Quote of the day from an unnamed Lib MP “At the beating heart of the Morrison Govt, there is a focus group !!”. We all constantly bemoan the “INATTENTION” of govt to our opinions, & yet it seems that that they are indeed VERY interested in our views. Consequently i’m amused at your bold, incautious, resolution , in cynically condemning our PM’s first genuine attempt at leadership for many months !!.

    So mate what will you criticise him for next ? being led by focus groups, or ( not?) listening to experts ? Or perhaps having some other dark political agenda ? We always laud Hawke, & JWH for connecting with mainstream Australia, where do think the PM has positioned himself, on which side ? For what outcome ?

  13. The coalition will win this 53-47. I suspect there would be a tiny swing away from the LNP here but the sophomore surge should cancel that out so no change for Longman.

    Young will likely he the next Mal Brough and hold on for a few terms

  14. Wine
    To the extent that this topic will influence the election, my opinions cannot be ignored.

    Now I am sorry but exactly how am I being audacious. The UK data is fact, not speculation. Despite very high vaccination rates – 80% of those over 50 there has been a surge in cases so that there were 30,838 cases yesterday (a little lower than Monday) but sadly 142 deaths. The good news that the UK government (and ours) is clinging to is that the rate of hospitalisations has dropped as a share of the cases but despite this there were 6,934 hospitalisations.

    So it is in fact very easy to assume that if we open up in the same way as UK, we will have a similar percentage of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. Australia is roughly 40% the size of the UK (a little lower) so once we have 70% vaccination of adults we might expect at least the same number of deaths etc ie about 40/day.

    Deaths psychologically, especially if mostly amongst the elderly we can probably emotionally cope with, but hospitalisations is another matter and I think that 2,800 daily (roughly 40% of the UK rate) would put a major strain on our hospitals. Now the UK does not publish ICU rates but in NSW about 15% are in ICU. If we allow for triage in a crisis we would be looking at about 10% or added ICU daily ie 280.

    Now back to Longman, if you do not think that Qld adding about 56 cases to ICU daily will not affect a particularly vulnerable community (many retirees plus ethnic minorities in the Caboolture area), then I do not know what you think will. The best that the Morrison government would be able to do would be to blame the states, but this might not wash too well if say the state governments call on national resources eg the army to support medical services and they are also too stretched to deliver.

    If Morrison goes for an election soon, while the vaccination story is good news, he might get away with it and there could be a swing to the LNP, but the speed of the Delta variant means that if say it gets into Qld early in the election campaign there might well be major problems by the election day.

  15. This is my seat, this will be an LNP hold, Labor won’t make up any ground in Qld as Albo hasn’t had any impact, there has been zero opposition , likely to lose Lilly & Blair, maybe Moreton as well

  16. Wine
    if you replied to me re use of facts then you will need to explain just why we will not follow the UK trajectory. I will list some factors that might change the trajectory.

    1. Now given that the UK had a bad first wave and an absolutely terrible second wave, one would expect very high levels of naturally acquired immunity, which should make their effective herd immunity much higher than their vaccination rate. So if anything we are under estimating the infections.

    2. Australia is not at the levels of UK to start with, which while it might not change the trajectory may delay it a month or so (enough to get past the election)

    3. A third booster shot of vaccine. Yes this is a good strategy but we are quite a way off that

    4. The possibility that OUR delta outbreak actually is operating in parallel with the vaccination, so that there is less chance of immunity wearing out – this is in fact a positive hope.

    5. Continued use of social distancing and other measures – this will probably be mandated in many states but possibly not in NSW.

    6. Approval to vaccinate young children – game changer but not on the horizon just yet.

    7. Advances in treatment. Unlike many who are way too optimistic about the success of vaccination, I think that there will be advances in treatment, which if true might greatly reduce the health impact. Just think= a drug tjhat reduces or removes symptomatic illness would be a major game changer. i am hoping.

  17. My comment about the invisibility of Terry Young is just as applicable to ALP. A few months back I searched for an ALP Candidate but could not find one. Yesterday in Courier Mail I saw a mention of an ALP candidate and her Facebook page. On searching for this Facebook page I found that
    not only has one been endorsed she has the appearance of being relatively busy at least on Facebook. A Facebook site exists for Rebecca Fanning and another one about LNP Lies in Longman.
    Why is it that the Both the ALP And LNP have the time and resources to send out e-mails begging for money but lack the time and resources to keep interested members of public informed about candidates.
    Terry Young has distributed a newsletter telling us how much the Government has spent mainly on things that are State responsibilities. However not a whisper about any minor party candidates. Corflutes are banned by Moreton Bay Council until issue of writs. In effect we are under informed.

  18. Does anybody know a thing about this Rebecca Fanning character? I’m a bit of a swinger myself, I’d like to know more about her, because as far as I’ve seen, she’s a nobody?

  19. Rebecca Fanning, a health policy expert who worked on the Palaszczuk government’s COVID response. Seriously, though did anyone know the LNP member for Longman before he was elected to parliament? Unless they are state MP/mayor/councilor or they are a celebrity candidate you could probably assert a couple members that got in parliament were nobody’s before they entered as well.

    Dennis Atkins hasn’t completely written of Longman for Labor according to his sources. In fact he suggests it maybe one of the seats Labor think they can take back. However, current polling doesn’t mean it will translate like that close to the election though.

    “Until that time, Queensland looked like registering no change at the coming election and that was on course to continue despite some euphoric dreaming by the LNP they might pick up Blair and Lilley early this year.

    Now Labor is increasingly confident they can pick up two out of three LNP seats up for grabs – Longman on the northern outskirts of Brisbane, Flynn on the Central Coast around Gladstone and Leichhardt, which runs through Cape York from Cairns to the north.”


  20. @ Trump 2024, very bold to say they’ll lose Lilly. Labor won’t do worse in Qld than they did last time (albeit they still won’t do well here) Shorten was more despised than Albo. I don’t see Labor picking up any Qld seats but I don’t see them losing any, status quo, which you can’t often say about Qld. Swan retiring hurt Labor in Lilly last time yet they still held it and the current MP is very much out in the community a lot. Lilly also not a great electorate for protest votes either.

  21. Terry Young has done sweet FA for Longman. Accept for giving millions to the Caboolture Sports Club, who really need the money…haha what a joke. Nothing else has been done in Longman since he has been in, accept for federal projects that were already in the works. Rebecca Fanning seems the obvious choice and has been campaigning hard with her grass roots approach. She has my vote and I hope everyone gets on board as we MUST get rid of the lying, corrupt liberals Australia wide.


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