Lilley – Australia 2022

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  1. Crucial seat, very ‘bellweather’. Outer metropolitan with a mix of working class suburbs (Zillmere, Geebung, Boondall, Nudgee etc); conservative, gentrifying McMansionland (McDowall and Carseldine, and especially Bridgeman Downs); a few sea-side areas further north (Sandgate, Shorncliffe, Brighton etc) and a bunch middle-class, established suburbs with a mix of demographics that could go either way down south. I’d say that Stafford, Stafford Heights, Kedron, Nundah and Wavell Heights are probably going to be more reliably Labor voting than past elections although there isn’t nearly the same amount of high-density development as in the inner-city. Decent amount of new apartments along Gympie Road and Chermside. Chermside itself has a sizeable Indian population, something like 5% I think, and you can maybe say they’re going to be increasingly voting for the LNP, but overall it’s a very white electorate. The electoral districts of Aspley, Nudgee and Sandgate, all roughly coterminous with Lilley saw significant swings towards Labor but I’d put that down more to Labor’s decisiveness on Covid than anything else.

    LNP and Labor have both already started leafletting and for good reason. I’d say this is a ‘must-win’ for Labor, because if they lose this one they can probably kiss goodbye to a whole slew of similar seats in NSW, and there won’t be nearly enough pickups in WA/Victoria/wherever else to make up for it.

  2. Forgot to say there’s been a ton of new apartments in Everton Park too, especially along Old Northern Road, so again, probably favorable for Labor.

  3. A relatively strong Greens showing helped Labor hang on here. The 2019 Greens candidate fell out hard with the party, to the point of running in South Brisbane to disrupt the campaign there. A small factor that will make life harder for Labor

    Additionally Anika Wells is part of the hard right of the ALP (the “fitzgibbon faction” / “otis group”) and that could factor in to the Liberal campaign to soften Green preferences (possibly with fake htvs) and keep small-l Liberals in the blue column.

  4. The LNP are running a serious grassroots campaign here like last time, I expect them to gain this seat finally this time, Wells may have been impressive but the tide will likely hit Lilley.

    I am surprised the LNP are not running Brad Carswell again, He almost won this seat last time. If Swan had ran last time he may have even lost to him. Labor have no clue what is coming for them here in QLD on election night 2022.

    I think the LNP candidate could be here for a few terms if Labor doesn’t fix it’s mess up. This is not a safe Labor seat. I expect it to be called within 2 hours like Herbert and Longman were called within a few hours last time. Labor should stop wasting resources trying to hold the QLD seats and spend them on winning Higgins and other Victorian marginals.

    This election is not being won or lost in QLD, QLD only will decide if Labor has a working majority, Labor can be in minority or have a tiny majority if it does well in the other states

  5. Furtive, do you think the ban on Australians returning from India (and the legislated gaol time) a few months back will have any impact on the Indian vote, or will that be too far in the past? Or will it be something that sticks at a more visceral level?

    Will an electorate like this be happy with their state premier’s performance on covid and, if so, could that any of that satisfaction spill over to federal labor?

  6. The big swing against ALP at the 2019 election was in large part due to the loss of Wayne Swan’s personal vote. Swan had a significant personal vote and at the 2001 and 2004 federal election, Swan was able to get a swing to him against the state trend. if Anika Wells has been active in the community she should be able to get a swing to her despite the overall result.

  7. Cassandra I’m not part of the Indian community and don’t feel remotely comfortable speaking on their behalf, as much as I love sharing my stupid uneducated opinions. I’m still nonetheless confident that Palaszczuk’s handling of COVID has broad appeal here, like most of Queensland.

  8. Tossup, this seat could easily go either way. I still think labor has a chance of holding on here due to incumbency.

  9. If Labor is losing Lilley, they’re gonna lose in a massive landslide nationally (which would be surprising after almost 4 terms in opposition.) I just can’t see it. Albo has done little but he’s also not Shorten who was loathed in Qld, he can’t possibly do worse. If Wells has done her ground work she should be able to hold it. I think Coalition retain gov though.

  10. Wells has been doing a bit of a blitz on tv and social media about the Coalition’s climate policy, or lack thereof. Her twitter account’s absolutely chock full of climate stuff. Clearly she believes this is a sore point for swing voters in Lilley. That, and/or she’s trying to sandbag her own perceived weakness in the area. John says she’s part of the Fitzgibbon crew, but you certainly wouldn’t know it from the way she’s been acting. Of course she hasn’t said what she would do differently and how she’d be any better than the Coalition, but then neither has any Labor MP.


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