Leichhardt – Australia 2022

LNP 4.2%

Incumbent MP
Warren Entsch, since 2010. Previously Member for Leichhardt 1996-2007.

Geography
Far North Queensland. Leichhardt covers the Cape York Peninsula and the east coast of Australia as far south as Cairns. While the seat covers a vast area, most of the population is in the area around Cairns.

History
Leichhardt was first created at the 1949 election. Apart from the 2010 election, the seat has been won by the party of government at every election since 1972.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Tom Gilmore of the Country Party, who was defeated by the ALP’s Henry Bruce in 1951. Bruce held the seat until his death shortly before the 1958 election, when he was succeeded by Bill Fulton.

Fulton held the seat until his retirement at the 1975 election. David Thomson won the seat for the National Country Party in 1975, and served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1979 until his defeat at the 1983 election, when John Gayler (ALP) won the seat.

Gaylor held the seat until his retirement in 1993, and the ALP’s Peter Dodd held the seat for one term before he was defeated by Warren Entsch (LIB) in 1996.

Entsch held the seat for eleven years before retiring in 2007, when a swing of over 14% gave the seat to the ALP’s Jim Turnour.

In 2010, Entsch returned to politics and won his seat back off Turnour with a swing of 8.6%, and he has been re-elected three more times.

Candidates

  • Pat O’Shane (Socialist Alliance)
  • Silvia Mogorovich (Informed Medical Options)
  • Warren Entsch (Liberal National)
  • Rod Jensen (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Adam Cropp (Fusion)
  • Susanne Bayly (Animal Justice)
  • Phillip Musumeci (Greens)
  • Daniel Hannagan (United Australia)
  • Geena Court (One Nation)
  • Paul Roe (Federation)
  • Elida Faith (Labor)
  • Assessment
    Leichhardt is a very marginal seat and Labor has a real shot at winning. The seat has usually moved in line with Queensland, but did not swing in 2019 when the state swung towards the LNP. Four seats immediately to the south of Leichhardt were very marginal in the past and have swung hard towards the LNP but Leichhardt looks different to those races. Coal is not a big issue in Leichhardt as it is in Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn and Herbert. It now remains the sole LNP marginal in rural Queensland.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Warren Entsch Liberal National 33,75337.6-1.9
    Elida Faith Labor 25,84628.8+0.7
    Gary Oliver Greens 9,34010.4+1.6
    Daniel MccarthyKatter’s Australian Party7,3188.2+3.9
    Ross MacdonaldOne Nation5,4286.0-1.5
    Jen SackleyUnited Australia Party3,5624.0+4.0
    Chad AndersonIndependent2,5622.9+2.9
    Jo AshbyConservative National Party1,9762.2+2.2
    Informal6,1606.4-0.9

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Warren Entsch Liberal National 48,63854.2+0.2
    Elida Faith Labor 41,14745.8-0.2

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the Cairns council area have been split into north, central and south Cairns. Polling places in the Douglas council area have been grouped, and the remainder have been grouped as Cape York. Most of the population is in Cairns.

    The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of five areas, with small majorities in northern Cairns and southern Cairns, and a bigger majority in Douglas. Central Cairns was a tie while Labor polled over 60% on Cape York. Entsch also won a massive 57.3% majority in the pre-poll vote, which made up almost 40% of the vote.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 6.3% in Cape York to 14.6% in northern Cairns.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Cairns North14.652.712,91713.0
    Cairns Central12.950.011,19911.2
    Cairns South9.153.97,5667.6
    Cape York6.339.54,8864.9
    Douglas13.956.23,2693.3
    Pre-poll9.057.339,16239.3
    Other votes9.455.210,78610.8

    Election results in Longman at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.

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