Kooyong – Australia 2022

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  1. Liberal hold, I don’t believe the Liberals will allow this one to seep away from them, They will throw everything at it if they think they will lose the seat, They would risk losing Higgins and Goldstein over this seat because a Treasurer losing his seat is unprecedented in Australian politics and is extremely unlikely to happen anytime soon. I expect them to sandbag resources here to prevent any further swing away from Frydenburg.

    Good chance this is one of the only seats in Victoria that swings to the coalition due to the reason I stated above.

  2. With the obvious caveat that no one knows what political fortunes will be like for the Coalition by the time of the election, in general they should be worried about this one. It swung very hard against Frydenberg last election, even though he largely avoided a lot of the negative attention trained on the rest of the Coalition at the time. That’s obviously not the case anymore. He has a much higher profile and for all the wrong reasons. He’s the chief cheapskate when it comes to the Coalition’s JobKeeper debacle and he’s saying something stupid and embarrassing nearly every time he’s on tv. He has, or at least had, respect in the party room but in general I think he’s a massively overrated politician whose talents are mostly relegated to not ruffling his colleagues’ feathers. He’s dimwitted, dull and cowardly. As a retail-politician you couldn’t ask for much worse. I’m sure he can fundraise as well as anyone else but I don’t see Liberal footsoldiers kicking in doors to save him in a bad election. That’s all before you get to the demographic changes and political realignment in inner East Melbourne. Everyone speculates him to be a leadership prospect, and frankly, in the event that Morrison loses the election, he’d basically *have* to become leader to save his political career entirely.

  3. Well if Morrison loses the election – who else in the Liberal Party could be the leader. Fair summary of Frydenberg (but isn’t all the L/N Parties retail politicians) Furtive?

  4. I honestly have no idea how a Liberal spill would shake out if Morrison left. My gut tells me the hard right will take over but I’m spitballing

  5. Furtive Lawngnome
    “”He’s the chief cheapskate when it comes to the Coalition’s JobKeeper debacle (and he’s saying something stupid and embarrassing nearly every time he’s on tv). “”
    This is just too fascinating . FL do you actually critically reexamine some of the things you say, before you post them. !?

    Just how much money would Josh have to borrow, print, & spend NOT TO BE “the chief cheapskate when it comes to the Coalition’s JobKeeper debacle ” in your not very humble opinion ? How much more (funding) would Chris Bowen be hurling at the situation ? (would YOU think ?) What would a hypothetical Labor govt be doing more, different, or better ?
    Conservatively it would take 2-3 DECADES to pay off the national debt, & don’t luxuriate, or hide in the facile fantasy that Australia won’t be forced to. Other people don’t have to give us THEIR MONEY ON OUR TERMS. How much of future generation’s opportunity, or capital, is it appropriate to SEIZE / or steal ? .
    Finance, fiscal constraints, money, are such grubby, “tedious” concerns as far as the Greens are concerned. However most of us are compelled to deal with, or at least consider such realities, & concerns, as they do affect our lives. Rather than simply dismissing the importance of such views, i wonder if you can deal with the rigour of seeing a point of view other than your own ?
    I’ve deeply considered your “bias” arguments from our last exchange, & concluded that they are just a convenient justification for NOT challenging, or defending beliefs, assumptions , & mis-typifications. However i do thank you for the opportunity, (or provocation) to identify through that, my own oversights, & assumptions.

  6. I don’t think I can wine, your arguments are just too logical and persuasive. I can’t reconcile my elitist fixations on the furloughed workers who were dependent on JosSeeker to pay their bills with the much more important need to systematically erode the tax base in favor of Liberal party stakeholders and those in the highest marginal tax bracket

  7. I’m interested to know how Victorians feel about Frydenberg’s attacks on covid lockdowns and state borders? It plays badly here in WA, but how does it play out with Victorians? I’m sensing there’s waning support for lockdowns this year compared to last year’s support? What’s the general mood in Victoria towards Frydenberg on his covid commentary?

  8. Sue,
    As a Victorian that is the case, however it depends where you are in Melbourne. The higher the numbers in effected councils the more area is covid fatigued. The closer you go into the city the more people support the lockdowns, whereas the further you go out less people are for lockdowns. I don’t however think it will be the ticket for the state or federal liberals winning here.

  9. Sue,
    This is the lockdown in Victoria where the straw has broken the camels back. People are really over it, sick of being locked up, sick of home schooling, students are sick of being at home, sick of small things in life like getting a haircut becoming impossible. In my workplace, we have got very honest about it – “sorry I lost the plot over the last few days and didn’t get much done” – and that is from the top down. Because social interactions are so limited, almost the only people you speak to are your work colleagues and there has been the odd “f***ing Dan” from quite surprising quarters.

  10. Sue as a Melburnian too I agree lockdown fatigue is at a peak right now, however one difference this time is that I think the NSW outbreak did water down some of the anger about it. Firstly it no longer feels like only a Victorian thing, and secondly NSW proved that lockdowns were needed.

    So my sense from people is that they’re more “over it” than ever, but also more understanding that it’s an unfortunate necessity than previously. And also, nobody is blaming this outbreak on our government unlike last year.

    The fact that 70% double dose freedoms are in sight now too has an impact in two different ways too. Positively, it is a light at the end of the tunnel and the mood that “Dan will lock us down forever” is gone, as he has committed to the reopening plan and nobody truly believes he won’t honour that (only the rusted on Lib voters say it, even if they don’t believe it). But negatively, it’s also adding to the fatigue because it’s like how the end of a long wait always feels like it goes the slowest. Even though we’ve been in this pandemic for 18 months now, the idea of 5 more weeks feels like forever.

    Overall though, I think Victorians’ frustration with lockdowns and this outbreak is more directed at the federal government this time. They’re angry the federal government pushed and encouraged NSW to let it rip. They’re angry and frustrated the vaccine roll out started so late. And they’re angry and frustrated that the federal government has favoured NSW so much in the roll out, in its language, and in its financial support. There’s a feeling we had to beg while Sydney didn’t even have to ask.

    Frydenburg is certainly going to feel a lot of that, but whether it’s enough to.cosr him the seat? I doubt it. Expect a margin closer to Higgins (3-4%) this time though I think.

  11. I should qualify that by saying I live in the inner city though, in a federal Labor seat and state Greens seat. And due to the 5km rule I have no idea if what I just described might be different in the outer suburbs. So what Bob said about more support for lockdowns closer to the city and less further out could very well be true.

    But given Kooyong is a wealthy inner city seat where people are working from home and less impacted by lockdowns, albeit a much more conservative part of Melbourne than where I am (St Kilda), I think the general feeling I described in my post above is probably true among Frydenburg’s voters too.

  12. Trent
    Doubtless you won’t be surprised that i disagree entirely with your “Victorian” views. Most especially with the “Dan”esque sledging of NSW- Fed govt. Really!.

    How is it that when the PM goes through his repertoire of propaganda, contrived progress/achievement successes etc it repels you. However when Dan does all the same moves with loads more deceit to boot it’s not offensive (at all ? ) !? They are the same achiever/performer personality type (3)

    What is & will be fascinating is that in 6-8 months we will receive a verdict from Victorian voters.
    If you are correct labor will lose no seats & gain at least 1
    If not labor could easily not win a seat, & lose Corangamite

  13. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/kooyong2022/comment-page-1#comment-756131

    Andrews has not been repeatedly been caught and or publicly flaunted favouring NSW over other states, despite being responsible for more than just NSW and the NSW government letting Australia down.

    Andrews has learned from his earlier mistakes on Covid.

    Andrews has not made a mess of the vaccine rollout.

    Andrews didn`t go on holiday to Hawai`i during the bushfires.

    Andrews didn`t seek an exemption for going home for Fathers day.

  14. Tom the first and best
    beat up, hyperbole, & ignoring the REALITY of outbreak leading to greater engagement of vaccination(in NSW) all fact & reality.

    1/ WHAT exactly has Dan “learned”? I’m not seeing much. CAN’T REMEMBER any apologies, acknowledgement of failure, mistakes even “errors” !!. Are you for real ?? Dan is the best solid gold liar i have ever seen. AND HE IS NEVER WRONG. the PM is not even in the same class, a reserve grader at best.!!

    2/ EXCTLY WHAT WOULD ANYONE ELSE HAVE DONE DIFFERENTLY ???. any govt would have gone for AZ and made it here. maybe. maybe someone would have given us more foreign vaccine ????? maybe…….
    3/just TOTALLY irrelevant
    4/ditto SO WHAT?

    Thing is they are all much the same because IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT PARTY THEY ARE IN !!!!!!. GOT IT!!!!.

    Next time TRY to give me something intellectual or at least thoughtful please

  15. winediamond
    I kind of agree that Andrews has been a little bit inept, mainly considering the clearest leadership was when Merlino was in charge. Has he learned anything? Who knows. At least he knows he looks like the children’s book character Inspector Bubblewrap.

    However, not taking an offer of a lot of Pfizer and being potentially 80% vaxxed by April is very clearly a policy failure. Unfortunately, a number of elderly people were/are holding out for the Pfizer vaccine, and as such, over 100 people have died in this very clearly controllable outbreak.

    Yes, not all of Sydney has been as affected by Covid. However, it’s hardly fair that people get to go to the beach unmasked in Bondi (with a miniscule police presence), while further west people get surveilled by helicopters while trying to have a picnic masked.

    Same with Melbourne. Unfortunately, the same problem happens every single lockdown. POC and CALD communities are more likely not to trust the government, and also some specific communities get poorly translated and vague information about how to stay safe.

    As much as people might deride him for being far too cautious, the way that McGowan locks us down before there is a problem is an exemplary method of protecting people, because it’s an actual snap lockdown, it surprises us, and we know that everything will be back to normal in a few months.

    As for gossip about random backbenchers, I can’t wait until the authorities can open up that Phil Edman laptop because I have a feeling a couple of current pollies here in WA would get shown the door. Probably not as bad as WA Inc but we’ll soon find out I guess.

    Julian Burnside was never going to run again (for GVIC at least) because he’s said some (even for the Greens) far too anti-Israel things, as well as pushing for mandatory vaccinations, which the Greens do not support. Given the turmoil of the last few years, the Greens are wanting to pick squeaky-clean candidates for their best seats as not to fuck everything up, which is why Steph Hodgins-May, Sonya Semmens, Alana Galli-McRostie and Rhonda Pryor aren’t exactly highest-profile but amazing candidates none the less.

    Celeste Liddle is a cool choice in Cooper, given she has a higher profile than most, as a Eureka Street columnist, and also a significant Twitter following. None of the stuff she’s saying is controversial (as a left-wing First Nations person) but Labor Emily’s List types (including the CEO herself) are infuriated that she dare run for the seat that she’s lived in for two decades. I think Labor just try and gatekeep the “influential and well-known left-wing candidate” category (Garrett, Ananda-Rajah) and get really nasty when the Greens present equally well-known candidates, like Liddle and Nolan.

  16. Ryan
    1/”little bit inept” a little mild don’t you think. Consider the collusion & conflict of interest (dare i suggest corruption !?) . when there is eventually the RC INTO the hotel security contracts etc Dan’s union masters have their grubby paws over every major policy decision in Victoria…..
    Inspector Bubblewrap ? No. no way. Dan sees himself as “the Great Leader” which is why Paul Murray christened him “Chairman Dan” (Mao). Thing you need to understand is that when someone is that completely fixated, regardless of how high functioning it’s as if they have, & operate under a pathology.

    The vaccine stuff is all debatable. Let history be the judge. Obviously it was imperfect. My understanding was that our inadequate orders were hijacked my other countries & Biden ? My point was no government would have done different.
    ALL OF SYDNEY has been affected trust me. The police have enforced differently. outdoor transmissions are an oxymoron.
    McGowan has been LUCKY. His extremism has been rewarded. It is not admirable, just fear based politicisation parochialism, & projection. Piss weak grandstanding.

    Burnside is a disgusting human being. Mrs WD worked with him 40 years ago before he inherited his fortune ($30 mill+?) Redfern legal aid . He is an anti semite, & hypocrite of the first order. He is extremely fortunate as are most high profile Greens that the people they defame, & smear have so little interest in prosecuting them.
    It would be amazing if they could remember what they are supposed to be doing (for others) instead of throwing excrement everywhere & constantly indulging themselves, & their pathological perfectionism.

    As for the Greens candidates : What relevance can they have, whilst the Greens have an economic programme that would immediately annihilate the economy, & destroy the country ?. How can you expect to increase the Green vote nationally, with such insanity ?

    Do you understand why i believe the libs are making a mistake putting the greens last on HoR ballot papers ?
    I will check out Celeste Liddle

  17. Ryan: a lot of safe seats come to be regarded by party insiders that monopolised them almost like party property. They treat internal preselections like the main event instead of the actual election, and when another party similar on the political spectrum doesn’t respect that it’s ‘their turn’, they get very cross. Happens with Shooters/One Nation/Nationals, and it happens with Labor and the Greens. It’s pretty funny really.


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