Hindmarsh – Australia 2022

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  1. Liberal gain.

    Marshall is a very popular premier and considering the outbreak hasn’t been anywhere near as bad in Adelaide as the eastern major cities it’s fair to say Morrison will get credit. Expect a 7-8% swing here and around metro and outer Adelaide.

  2. Daniel
    If only it could be so !!. I doubt that we will be released from having to endure the oily smugness, patronising arrogance , & impenetrable grandiosity of Mark Butler. The true idealogical JACK ASS of LABOR (ISnt that an “equal opportunity “) comment Ryan Spenser !!??)

    On the other hand do you think Butler’s departure would hurt the LIBERAL vote !?

  3. winediamond I am wholeheartedly not a Labor supporter and Daniel; same problem; saying with absolute certainty that Labor will lose here is terrible psephology. Nothing much is happening politically in SA, so I’d presume a Labor retain, albeit probably narrower. These vaccine rollout pipedreams you lot keep spinning are a bit much tbh.

  4. Are you sure you guys aren’t getting confused with the old Hindmarsh? This seat is now basically the old Port Adelaide with Grange and Glenelg attached. Maybe there’s some demographic change as the old working class suburbs gentrify, but there’s still plenty of rock solid Labor vote here.

    Even if there was a big Lib swing in 2022 (big “if”), I’d expect the Howard-era marginals like Makin or Kingston to go before this one.

  5. Ryan Spencer
    I don’t agree with Daniel. Unfortunately Jackass is in no danger. Mark Mulcair is quite right. Besides i do think not having Butler acting like the lunatic he is, would significantly damage the liberal vote, & people might start to forget just how obscenely delusional people like Butler, really are.

  6. @Mark Mulclair

    Maybe not Kingston. It’s got a margin of 12%, so that likely won’t fall for a while. In SA, there’s really only two marginal marginals (Boothby and Mayo) and unless the Libs win Mayo, they can’t really benefit because the seats Labor do hold (Hindmarsh, Adelaide, Spence, Makin and Kingston) are full of rusted-on Labor voters who will likely never change their vote.

  7. Mark and WD, agreed. Labor are not losing this one. Best the Libs can hope for is perhaps a small swing?

    Ryan – Kingston and Spence are probably out of the picture; the former due to the margin, the latter because of how Gawler’s been trending. However, I don’t see what makes Makin and Adelaide any different (demographically-speaking) than they were during the Howard years. In other words, I don’t think the margin in those seats is necessarily attributable to ‘rusted-on Labor voters’, but instead due to the weak Liberal performance in SA and very good Labor incumbents.

    I’m not saying the Libs will win them, only that they aren’t incapable of doing so in the (distant?) future. Perhaps someone more knowledgeable about SA could elaborate on the extent of demographic change in these parts of Adelaide?

  8. Wreathy one of the issues in Adelaide is the loss of seats (numerically), which has changed the political landscape, therefore the Makin and Adelaide electorates are not the same electorates they were in the Howard years.

  9. One potential factor in the division Adelaide is that there has been a swing leftward in urban areas in much of the western world, including Australia, with rural and outer-suburban areas trending more to the right.

  10. Adelaide now contains booths around Croydon + West Torrens, hence the seat is now quite a bit safer than what it was. Would’ve been a moderately safe Labor seat in the Howard Years. Similar case applies to Hindmarsh (which now has the Port Adelaide area) and Spence (which is now pretty much wholly urban unlike Wakefield).

    Makin was made slightly safer in the 2017 redistribution, but fundamentally it’s still the same seat that Draper held throughout the Howard Years. If Zappa retires the swing will be interesting to watch (but the margin is high enough and the Salisbury area working-class enough that it’d be a big surprise if Labor lost it).

  11. Chaisa
    Agreed. Very thorough summation.
    Do you have a view on why Zappia has performed so well, & never been promoted?
    He APPEARS to be far more talented & capable than many others.
    Perhaps you might kick off the Main thread If you choose to reply ?
    Do you have a view on which SA seats may be affected by demographic changes ?
    cheers WD

  12. Chaisa, thank you for the thorough explanation. I had a feeling Makin was the most similar but wasn’t too sure. Cheers.

  13. Thanks all.

    I’m not actually from Adelaide (I’m a Sydney-based poster), so I’m not entirely sure what makes Zappia (and Rishworth) so popular. He does seem a popular performer, but IIRC doesn’t have a factional alignment so that has alas harmed his chances of parliamentary promotion.

    As for the SA seats where demographic change has influenced things……it’s probably only Spence + Grey – most seats change demographically because of urbanisation or changes in employment structure (latter hasn’t applied for a long time). Adelaide hasn’t grown as rapidly as the rest of the major capitals so there’s less seats that have been impacted by demographic change there. I’ll put up a list of seats where I suspect demographic change has influenced things in the main thread.


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