Liberal hold, don’t see Labor winning here. I think 2016 was a protest vote against Turnbull.
You mean Ewen Jones. The big reason they lost it was because of him. Anyone who suggests Morrison is popular in regional QLD has no clue what they are talking about. Malcolm Turnbull’s coalition held onto Capricornia,Flynn and Dawson didn’t they? I guarantee you if Turnbull was still PM these would still have been safe seats because if voters had to choose between the coalition or Labor on the Adani issue I assure you they wouldn’t have supported Labor.
And not to mention Adani wasn’t the only reason this area swung wildly. franking credits and negative gearing and immigration policy were other big factors. If it really was Adani then why did Townville swing towards Labor at the state election last year?
Cathy O’Toole was one of the worst performing Labor mp’s in recent history, that is the reason she suffered one of the worst defeats of a sitting federal MP in modern times. I think if she retired last time the margin would have been around 5-6% instead of the current 8%
Just watch her interview with Michael Rowland, she literally refused to say ”I support Adani” and dodged the question and said ”I don’t get what the big fuss is” That is why she lost badly. Not Palmer, Not Hanson. It was her and Bill Shorten.
Not to mention Palmer hated Ewen Jones and called on him to lose his seat before the 2016 election. surely this didn’t help.
Labor announced candidate Aviation Firefighter John Ring as their candidate. LNP will be favorites to retain. Its even possible the scenario of Labor winning the federal election but failing to win Herbert. I just feel that way about this seat. Popular former Liberal MP Peter Lindsay stopped Labor getting across the line to win Herbert in Kevin Rudd’s win in 2007. Labor benefited from One Nation directing preferences to them which helped them eek a out a win in this seat in 2016.
Agree likely Liberal Hold. I do believe there is a sitting member here like in most regional seats. If Peter Lindsay had retired at the 2007 election i believe it would have fallen to Labor and the TPP result would have been higher for Labor than the QLF TPP. If it wasnt for a poor result in QLD in 2010 Labor would have won this seat as there was no incumbent. The Swing against Labor in 2010 was smaller compared to the QLD average and Labor achieved a better TPP than the overall QLD result.
*Sitting member factor
There is a strong defence force vote in this electorate
which tends to favour the Liberals. Labor will get a swing to it ,but it’s a likely Liberal hold.
I read in the Saturday Paper that Labor are a chance in this seat. And apparently miltary veterans were unhappy with the way Afghanistan pullout was handled which may be a factor. You right though overwhelming majority of defense forces tends to vote Liberal. But the three state Labor seats situated here shows the electorate is not afraid to vote Labor too.
Pretty sure I read in the Guardian that Labor thought they were a chance here as well.
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