Hawke – Australia 2022

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  1. It would be disrespectful to Bob Hawke if this ever fell Liberal. That is why I was always sceptical with these boundaries. 10% might look safe on paper but a 1996/2013 result could make it close. I have always believed seats named after prime ministers should always be placed in safe areas for the party the PM belonged to.

    So yes I am also suggesting Fraser,Holt,Bruce,Gorton and McEwen should also all be placed in Liberal/National areas. I don’t think the Liberals would like it if the future division of Howard which likely will be placed on the Sydney North Shore was marginal.

    Unless of course if the ”Interesting” you mean is to do with a future redistribution changing the boundaries.

    Bob Hawke is the Labor version of Robert Menzies and has the division of Menzies ever voted Labor? No.

  2. On this seat – Yes, one to watch should the Liberals increase their statewide vote in Victoria like it’s 1996.

    Here in Perth, the seat of Curtin is very much a safe Liberal one, plus it incorporated bits of Fremantle (his old seat) which were in it when John Curtin (Labor) held Fremantle.

    Demographics and population density of areas also change over time (Bruce used to be a safeish Liberal seat, but that was back when the Liberals did better in Victoria, plus it didn’t go south of Wheelers Hill)

  3. Bob, to be honest I’d think the opposite.

    With continued growth in the western suburbs, I think it’s more likely Hawke will gradually lose its rural areas and consolidate as an urban seat. Therefore becoming much safer for Labor.

    Kind of how Burke/Gorton has ended up being a super-safe Labor seat over time.

  4. The old 1984-90 Burke was in same territory as this and was marginal Labor (would have been 1990 loss if it had not been pushed back into Melbourne) but its sign of Victoria’s leftward drift & spread of Melbourne that this in-between region is now safe Labor.


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