Griffith – Australia 2022

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15 COMMENTS

  1. A must watch electorate in inner-Brisbane. Terri Butler seems genuinely concerned about Max Chandler-Mather, the Queensland Greens candidate beating her in 3PP. But if there is a really poor primary vote for Labor in Brisbane metropolitan area in particular, the LNP may pick up this seat.

    Queensland’s Macnamara.

  2. CG
    Geez mate we had a big set too about this comparison last election ….!
    Sheesh you just couldn’t leave it alone could you !!??.
    cheers WD

  3. I agree that Butler could lose at this rate which would only leave Labor with 2 seats (Oxley and Rankin) they wouldn’t hold Moreton,Blair or Lilley if they lose this to the LNP. It doesn’t matter how popular the Premier is because the support never translated last time why would it this time?

    I wouldn’t take a Jackie Trad loss as a warning sign here only because Jackie Trad lost because of Jackie Trad, the vote was anti-her rather than Anti-Labor. So please tell me what those Labor operators are on who want Trad to run for federal politics.

  4. Its funny but instinctively Griffith feels more vulnerable than other QLD seats with the exception of Blair. However which way it goes could be very different.
    With the surge in the Green vote Butler is astute enough to be apprehensive. Then again Butler did very well in most LNP booths so who would know? There might well be a resurgence in the LNP vote here. A real toss up

    Then Again Labor could hold say Lilley & lose this to the LNP. Either way id predict that Griffith will lose all parts west of the M 1 next redistribution, & that would be curtains for Butler.

  5. Labor have stepped up their campaign against Max Chandler-Mather, with some pretty amusingly desperate attacks actually (today it was because he was helping Morrison by pointing out that Australia no longer has public pharmaceuticals, apparently). The parallels between the Amy Macmahon/Jackie Trad spats are pretty obvious imo. I’d say they’re expecting to lose Griffith at this point, but I dunno if I’d draw too many conclusions about how they’re feeling on other seats because of that.

    At any rate this is the Greens’ best chance for a second house seat in Queensland, they won’t win Brisbane or Ryan if they don’t get this one. I don’t see the LNP taking it, except on the back of an absolute landslide victory. But I wouldn’t rule that out either.

  6. Brisbane is more likely to go to the Green than this. C’mon guys you can’t take the state election as a ramification because Jackie Trad lost for being Jackie Trad. it was anti-her. McMahon would have lost if Trad had retired. If Butler losses which I think she is a favourite but not overwhelming. Then this seat will fall to the LNP.

    Last time I checked this was ALP vs LNP not ALP vs GRN. And remember before Trad lost, the seat was already an ALP vs GRN so we are at least a couple of elections away from it becoming LAB vs GRN and besides this doesn’t solely just contain South Brisbane.

  7. There was definitely a personal factor against Trad in the state election but the Greens’ strength in this area has been growing very quickly besides. The local branch is one of the biggest and probably the most influential in the entire state, and unlike the north Brisbane people (who largely run the Brisbane campaign), they’ve got an effective party machine and haven’t managed to ratf–k themselves with internal bickering. I compared the current dynamic to last year’s state election because when Labor spend a lot of time mounting (desperate) attacks on the Greens rather than focusing almost entirely on the LNP, it’s isually an indicator of who they feel is the real threat.

  8. I’d be quite surprised if Griffith ever went LAB vs GRN. That would imply the effective Liberal vote dropping by more than 10%.

    As Ben points out, the Greens have two paths to victory in single-member seats.

    Option A, overtaking Labor and then beating the LNP on Labor prefs, is easier in some ways and harder in others, but I expect it to be the more common of the two. It’s doable with a Greens 3PP under 30%, but it then needs a quite high Liberal 3PP too, otherwise Labor’s too far in front. Successfully done in The Gabba 2016, Maiwar 2017 and Prahran 2014, and attempted in Higgins, Kooyong, Brisbane and Ryan. Tendency thus far for genuine three-cornered contests.

    Option B, going up against Labor on top-two, is only ever going to be applicable in the most heavily left-wing electorates, where the Liberal vote is below 33%. To make matters tricky, the Libs get play kingmaker. Successfully done in South Brisbane 2020, and Melbourne 2014; famously attempted in Cooper.

  9. The LNP HTV recommended preferences to the Greens over Labor in South Brisbane. Didn’t this make the difference?

  10. Of course. But the Libs will almost certainly win the primary vote in Griffith. They won’t be distributing preferences.

  11. Actually maybe not even that’s a cert, depending how bullish you are on the LNP’s inner city vote collapsing. They won’t be *losing* the 3pp vote. I think that at least is definitely not happening.

  12. Regarding South Brisbane, Amy MacMahon led the 3PP in 2020 (but not in 2017). I ended up calculating that if LNP prefs had flowed at the same proportions they had in 2017 (37% Greens), then Jackie Trad would’ve retained by a few hundred votes; 42-58 would’ve been the balance point.

    As it happened, MacMahon ended up getting something like 69% of prefs on the LNP candidate’s exclusion, hence the fairly solid 55-45 2CP.

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