Greenway – Australia 2022

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14 COMMENTS

  1. I think 2019’s result represented somewhat of a demographic transition and I can see it being even more the case this time. Most Western Sydney seats have enoigh margin for their Labor MPs to hang on. Even Macquarie might he able to stay ALP due to the Blue Mountains firming up for Labor.

    Greenway though will be a tough hold for Labor. Jaymes Diaz is a distant memory and I’m not sure where in this sest Labor will be stronger this time. 3% swing is very achievable.

    By no means a certain Liberal gain – Michelle Rowland survived in 2013 after all – but this is one of the seats they could win off Labor to make up for their gains elsewhere.

  2. John
    i agree that Rowland has a defensible margin. Therefore Greenway is a classic “Toss up”.
    Personally i am far more impressed with her this term than previously. All indications are that she has done an excellent job in representation & personally too.
    Id be interested if services are still a major issue in the new suburbs. Nth of M2.
    Local sources indicate that there is a significant influx of new residents in the older suburbs south of the M2 ie Lalor Park Seven Hills maybe Toongabbie. This would cause more volatility. How many first time voters would there be ? The enrolment has increased north of 5000 alone.
    a safe prediction would be for labor to hold but losing most of their margin, mainly on Rowland’s personal vote. Instinctively i’d sense that there is trouble here for Labor & they will lose this, narrowly, through impetus & momentum.

  3. This was my electorate in 2019.

    What might be quite striking to some is that The Ponds is in the 100th percentile on the index of socioeconomic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD) in NSW, scoring significantly higher than much of the North Shore and Eastern Suburbs. It’s quite a unique and paradoxical demographic – new suburbs, well-educated, very high incomes, young families, diverse (50% born overseas, 15% Hindu, 8% Muslim), quite far out from the city, and not a particularly prestigious area. Similar characteristics can be found in many other new suburbs, though The Ponds is one of the most extreme examples.

    The two polling booths in The Ponds voted 56% and 52% Liberal 2PP, with both recording a *smaller* swing to the Liberals than the rest of Greenway. So overall, The Ponds voted around two percentage points more Liberal than the rest of NSW.

    I would assume that it’s a similar demographic moving into the new developments in Schofields, Riverstone, Nirimba Fields, and Grantham Farm. If so, this will likely drag Labor’s standing down further, but is nowhere near fatal.

    I often hear that new suburban areas are likely to be solidly Liberal voting, but the numbers do not show this. Here’s the 2PP margins from developing suburbs across Sydney at the last election:
    • Marsden Park (Chifley): Liberal 53%
    • Ropes Crossing (Chifley): Labor 56%
    • The Ponds (Greenway): Liberal 52% and 56% (two polling booths)
    • Glenmore Park (Lindsay): Liberal 55% to 60% (four polling booths)
    • Gregory Hills (Macarthur): Labor 52%
    • Leppington (Macarthur): Labor 52% (with a 13% swing *towards* Labor!)
    • Oran Park (Macarthur): Labor 52%
    • Bardia (Werriwa): Liberal 52%
    • Carnes Hill (Werriwa): Labor 53%
    • Edmondson Park (Werriwa): Labor 59%
    • Middleton Grange (Werriwa): Liberal 55%

  4. @winediamond

    Absolutely, services are a major issue here. Though in ways that are perhaps more relevant at the state level. There are multiple schools that are massively over capacity and with demountables everywhere. Roads are not keeping up with the new population growth, there’s questions around when the metro will be extended to Schofields (and eventually to St Marys), and there’s been controversy over the (re)announcement of a new hospital around Rouse Hill. Again, all more relevant to state politics than federal politics.

  5. Nicholas Weston
    Agreed about relevance of services. However the govt is getting clouted over vaccination & that is a state responsibility too ……! I guess it is just the pointy end of “Big Australia”?. Or the end result ?

    Your account of voting in new housing areas is very revealing. I wonder which direction they will take as they settle into their new homes ,& massive mortgages ?.
    A friend is a teacher at The Ponds at a state school. Yje most common surname is Singh, & there were over 40 in 1 form.
    Rowland has moved mountains in her personal journey, & deserves complete admiration on that score alone. If she has even accomplished a fraction of that politically by rights she ought to retain the seat. I’d like to see her take over Fowler, if things don’t turn out.

  6. I lived in this electorate from 2012 to 2014, coincidentally, in The Ponds. I’ve seen nothing to suggest that Rowland would lose this seat this time around. I expect the Liberals, pending the next redistribution to win it back one day, but not this election. Rowland is a quality MP in a difficult electorate.

  7. The pre-2007 redistribution abolished a rural seat and as a result Macquarie was pulled outside of Greater Sydney: it gained Lithgow plus Bathurst and ceded the Hawkesbury to Greenway. The pre-2010 redistribution abolished a suburban Sydney seat and the process reversed: Macquarie regained the Hawkesbury, letting Greenway return to its traditional form.

  8. I predict in a decade or two much of the northern parts of Greenway which turn into a solid liberal area. Incomes in suburbs such as The Ponds/Kellyville Ridge are similar to the Hills District. It will follow a similar trend to Aston (Vic) as more homes become owned outright and the population starts to enter middle age. The Southern Part around Blacktown will remain Working Class and Labor leaning. The Liberal party needs to look at fielding a South Asian candidate in the future.

  9. Oops, pressed the button too early.

    @Nimalan Sivakumar

    Read my comment above about new suburban areas. This demographic change could tilt it towards the it Liberals, but history shows it is unlikely to make it all that safe.

    About running a South Asian candidate in Greenway, see my last comment on the McMahon thread.

  10. @ Nicholas Weston, Concur with your comments on the McMahon thread and about new new suburban areas being marginal. Currently suburbs such as The Ponds/Kellyville Ridge etc while being well educated and high income are still very much mortgage belt areas where there is a high proportion of the population being young families. In Melbourne, the suburbs of Point Cook/Williams Landing will be the equivalent. They currently vote Labor but only just. Families whilst having high income will also face issues such as mortgage stress/childcare rebates and other cost of living issues. However, over time as the population ages, property values increases and homes are being paid off, the amount of disposable income increases. The voters will be more concerned about issues such as negative gearing/superannuation etc. This explains why Aston is now the safest Liberal seat in Melbourne. Back in the 1980s/early 1990s Aston was the typical mortgage belt seat in Melbourne. Another example would be the seat of Cook. It was a marginal seat in the 1970s but solid Liberal now. The suburban parts of the electorate of Casey (Vic) show a simmilar trend. Agree with your comments on the McMahon thread on a South Asian candidate

  11. This is my seat.

    Everything points to a Labor hold, as stated above, mostly behind Michelle’s personal standing ( that and i couldn’t tell you if or WHO the liberal candidate is.

    Throw in lockdowns + the feds botching everything they come into contact with.

    BUT…

    The spectre of 2019 hasn’t left my brain for a second.

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