Grayndler – Australia 2022

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  1. Even if there is a Labor collapse worse than 1996, Grayndler still should be held by Albanese.

    However if Albanese resigns from Parliament anytime soon (not at an election, for a by-election) than this seat becomes a winnable Greens seat.

    Assuming they nominate a candidate with strong Inner West-style messaging.

    But Labor will retain this seat with Albanese as the Member and with a strong flow of Liberal preferences.

  2. I could see Albanese losing Grayndler if he became PM and then disappointed the Left. Then you might get a scenario like Bennelong during the 2000s, with a laundry list of independents or minor parties all running to protest Albo and then preferencing against him.

    Otherwise agree that he’s safe here.

  3. Greens aren’t going to target Grayndler, but the Liberals might preference Greens to scare Albo into working his own seat instead of touring the country. I think there will be a swing from Labor to Greens in the Labor vs Green inner city seats in other cities, but Grayndler is still a bridge too far and ALP/GRN swinging voters probably won’t want to vote against the person they want to become PM.

  4. Grayndler and Sydney are still safe for the ALP while Albo and Tanya P are still running. Once they decide to go then all bets are off and the Greens in a with a real chance – especially Grayndler.

    If the Libs want to make merry they should preference against the sitting member – against the ALP in Grayndler, Sydney, Wills, Cooper -and against Greens in Melbourne. Would tie down resources that can’t be spent / allocated elsewhere.

  5. The Greens can take seats of ALP sitting members, when circumstances are in the Greens` favour. With Albanese as ALP PM (which is looking increasingly likely), he won`t be the hypothetical more progressive alternative within the ALP, he will be the face of many decisions that disappoint the more progressive voters who choose between the ALP and Greens and thus be at an increased risk of defeat (unless he moves seats).

  6. Grayndler Will need approx 15000 voters from Barton, & Watson by the next redistribution. This means it moves at least to the Cooks River, & substantially west into Watson. Labor will be under no threat from then on. Even in a by election.

    The above means that the Greens have one chance to take Grayndler & that is now & it’s completely improbable. Lib Preferences are irrelevant. The Greens are the “NO” party, they need a positive agenda, & policies, & that will never happen.

    Tom the first and best
    “With Albanese as ALP PM (which is looking increasingly likely)” Really!?. You & which other individual believe this !? Albo is going nowhere in every respect. He will be in parliament for life.

  7. winediamond
    I thoroughly disagree that the Greens are the “NO party” when they very clearly have a positive and thorough set of progressive agendas and policies. Meanwhile, Labor are stuck in between a rock and a hard place on climate change, and their support of new gas and coal means their margin will decrease. Albo ain’t no leftie anymore.

  8. Ryan Spencer
    Have you ever heard of Oxymoron ?. Contradiction in terms ?. “Progressive” maybe within the confines of ideology . Positive ? NO. Too silly for words
    “Meanwhile, Labor are stuck in between a rock and a hard place on climate change, and their support of new gas and coal means their margin will decrease. ” Wow , clearly I’m completely misinformed .

  9. I know who could defeat Albanese, although she won’t run as she would have to give up the mayoralty. Clover Moore could give Albanese a huge run for his money here.

  10. I would say an ALP leadership change puts Albanese at severe risk from the Greens. The idea that he’s a progressive figure within the ALP has been well and truly debunked by the party’s rightward shift under his leadership. Once he’s a “has been”, his career is over.

    If he becomes PM, what would need to happen is there would need to be a highly credible deputy leader that Labor/Green swing voters would like more than Albanese, and enough confidence around the idea that by booting Albanese out they can get an even better Labor PM (especially if Green balance of power is in play). Marles, who’s one of the most right wing MPs Labor has, will protect against that narrative.

    On the Greens part however they don’t seem to be able to preselect a candidate here that can appeal to a wide enough range of people to win a majority after preferences (even in Grayndler). The NSW Greens have plenty of people in their ranks who can keep the volunteer base happy while having the political skills to win over voters (thinking Jenny Leong, Mehreen Faruqi). Here they seem to preselect confrontational (and proud of it) hard leftists – the SAlt kind who can make a good idea seem like a bad idea through the way they sell it alone.

  11. EXCERPTS FROM TODAYS OZ by Troy Bramston (such a right wing journo !!!!!!!)

    “I am ambitious to change the country for the better, but I want to ensure we bring the country with us,” Albanese argues. “I have been able to work with unions and business. I’m a proud unionist but I also want to work with employers. I’m concerned with the creation of wealth, not just its distribution.”

    He was often on the losing side of totemic policy debates during the Hawke-Keating years on university fees, tariff reductions, uranium exports and privatisation. In Young Labor, he supported wealth taxes and death duties. That was a different Albanese, though, who now positions himself as a moderate leader in the Hawke-Keating tradition.

    “Tom Uren used to say to me: ‘You’ve got to learn something new and grow as a person every day’,” Albanese recalls. “I still learn something new every day and I hope I’m continuing to grow as a person every day. I am much more respectful of differences of view than when I was 21. But I’m no less passionate than I was then and I’m quite prepared to engage in debate with people at any time.”

    There is another side to Albanese: a loyal friend, devoted father, community champion, party stalwart, a man who has committed his life to public service and is often overly emotional and excessively sentimental. I’ve seen tears well in his eyes more times than I can remember. He is, I put to him, a hard man with a soft heart.

    “That is a fair assessment,” he acknowledges. “I have a real sense of the responsibility, a weight on my shoulders, to take us to victory. It is a mountain to climb, and it requires discipline and focus. I can be very emotional – more so than you would know – because I care about people, I’m quite passionate about my beliefs and I often show that. But that doesn’t mean I am not capable of a steely resolve, and I can’t be intimidated.”

    Today, Albanese’s priority is developing a “more strategic” policy agenda. Labor is not proposing a revolution, but he rejects the suggestion the party is risk-averse or lacking boldness. He says Labor’s program will blend ambition with practicality and be communicated as a narrative about where Labor wants to take the nation and why.

    Asked for his vision for Australia in a sentence, Albanese offers: “My vision for Australia is one where no one is left behind, but no one is held back from opportunity.” Asked what he would like to be remembered for as prime minister, he nominates “an Australia that makes things”, “takes advantage of our position in the fastest-growing region of the world” and is a “renewable energy superpower”.

    “That we were constructive in 2020 has put us in a position to be more critical of Morrison in 2021. The strategic task for us now is to reinforce that but also to put in place and advocate for reimagining a stronger Australia. If we can form government next year, it will be a good time to shape the country going forward, and that is my ambition.”

  12. Anthony Albanese, could end up being in serious trouble from the Greens if his electorate feel that he is bending to right. If the Liberal party switch there presences to the Greens in these inner city seats Labor could have a lot of trouble on the night.

  13. It would be more logically if Kenneally primary challenged wither Burney,Albanese or Plibersek as her former seat of Heffron contained parts of those electorates.

  14. Agree Nicholas, Rockdale is clearly part of the St Georges District (Southern Sydney) and Botany Bay is part of the Eastern Suburbs even if it is not as affluent as other Eastern Suburbs.


    Seems the Indigenous-Aboriginal Party is getting quite serious, fielding more candidates. Find it interesting the seats they’re got lined up so far.. Page, Robertson and now Grayndler. Will see if they just stay NSW based (they’re looking at state registration) and how many seats they end up running in. Thought regional/rural seats would be conducive, especially New England.

  16. Highly unlikely to get their deposit back and will only take primary votes away from the ALP and the Greens.

  17. With Andrews, Snowdown and Fitzgibbon soon to be out of Parliament, I believe Albo is set to become Father of the House – and maybe even PM as well! The only comprable example I can think of is Henry Campbell-Bannerman in the UK.

    Was anyone elected before 1996 in the House?

  18. Katter will be Father of the House not Albo; Entsch also has a claim after Katter, as he was elected in 96 but he missed a term between 07-10

  19. Albansese is in no danger of losing this seat to the greens. Maybe if he decides to retire after 3 more terms it would be a different contest

  20. So the Father of the House in 2022 will have entered parliament in 1993. In 2016, it was 1973. Ruddock hang around for a very long time.

  21. There is also Russell Broadbent but I’m not sure if he is re-contesting.
    He got first elected in 1990 but has been in and out of parliament at varying stages, and held 3 different seats.
    So he’s elected before anyone else there but has not had a continuous run.
    The only reason Ruddock stayed as long as he did was because Leeser hadn’t got his numbers in order yet. Libs wanted to move him out about 10 years before he did


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