Franklin – Australia 2022

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  1. Will Hodgeman should run here. He would give Labor a serious scare here. Other than that I expect Labor will narrowly hold this seat with a 6-7% swing so it will return to it’s 2013 margin. Labor’s hammering won’t just stop in QLD, Tasmania is the other state I think Labor will do poorly in.

    Here is how Labor can win but the path is quite narrow.
    1) Limit losses in NSW (They will lose seats in QLD no matter what with Albo)
    2) Win Higgins,LaTrobe,Chisholm,Casey and Deakin. If they can pick off a Flinders,Kooyong,Menzies,Monash Aston or Goldstein any 1 of those would also help them offset the inevitable losses in QLD and NSW
    3) Pick up Boothby
    4) Win Swan,Hasluck and Pearce (They need them) Bonus points if they can gain any other WA seats such as Tangney,Moore or Canning (which any of those 3 would be unlikely but would have been won on state figures)
    5) Have the backing of Andrew Wilkie,Adam Bandt and either 1 of Katter,Steggal,Sharkie or Haines assuming they all win

    Then only then can Labor win the election.

  2. Can somebody please explain to me why the AEC persist in maintaining boundaries for Franklin where the seat is cut in two distinct pieces. Once upon a time it wrapped around Denison but no longer. Is there a community of interest between the Eastern Shore and the Huon Valley? Isn’t it time for a wholesale change of Southern Tasmanian Boundaries so that Franklin is one contiguous entity?

  3. @redistribution

    I have not investigated this in great detail, but I suspect that due to numerical requirements, it is not possible to have a division cross the Tasman Bridge. If Franklin extends from the Huon Valley to as far north into Hobart as it can, I think the boundary goes well beyond the Tasman Bridge. Clark would then be roughly coterminous with Glenorchy and Clarence. Yes, there are other bridges across the Derwent, but without the Tasman Bridge, one could argue that the divisions may as well be discontiguous, and at least we get a division (Clark) centred on Hobart.


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