Will Hodgeman should run here. He would give Labor a serious scare here. Other than that I expect Labor will narrowly hold this seat with a 6-7% swing so it will return to it’s 2013 margin. Labor’s hammering won’t just stop in QLD, Tasmania is the other state I think Labor will do poorly in. Here is how Labor can win but the path is quite narrow. 1) Limit losses in NSW (They will lose seats in QLD no matter what with Albo) 2) Win Higgins,LaTrobe,Chisholm,Casey and Deakin. If they can pick off a Flinders,Kooyong,Menzies,Monash Aston or Goldstein any 1 of those would also help them offset the inevitable losses in QLD and NSW 3) Pick up Boothby 4) Win Swan,Hasluck and Pearce (They need them) Bonus points if they can gain any other WA seats such as Tangney,Moore or Canning (which any of those 3 would be unlikely but would have been won on state figures) 5) Have the backing of Andrew Wilkie,Adam Bandt and either 1 of Katter,Steggal,Sharkie or Haines assuming they all win Then only then can Labor win the election.