Flynn – Australia 2022

LNP 8.7%

Incumbent MP
Ken O’Dowd, since 2010.

Geography
Central Queensland. Flynn covers Gladstone and comes close to covering the regional centres of Bundaberg and Rockhampton. It also covers the inland local government areas of Banana, Central Highlands and North Burnett, as well as parts of South Burnett.

History
Flynn was created for the 2007 election as a notionally National seat, taking parts of Maranoa, Capricornia and Hinkler. Capricornia has almost always been held by the ALP in recent decades, although the Nationals gained it for one term after both the 1975 and 1996 landslides. Maranoa has been held by the Nationals since the Second World War, while Hinkler’s shorter history has been dominated by the Nationals, except for two terms of the ALP holding the seat.

The 2007 redistribution saw Flynn created with a 7.7% margin for the Nationals, but a massive swing to the ALP saw the seat won by Chris Trevor by a slim margin.

In 2010, a 5.8% swing to the LNP saw Ken O’Dowd defeat Trevor. O’Dowd has been re-elected three times.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Ken O’Dowd is not running for re-election.

  • Matt Burnett (Labor)
  • Paul Bambrick (Greens)
  • Carla Svendsen (Great Australian Party)
  • Sharon Lohse (One Nation)
  • Duncan Scott (Independent)
  • Tanya Wieden (United Australia)
  • Colin Boyce (Liberal National)
  • Assessment
    Flynn has never been safer for the LNP than it is now. There is still potential for those voters to switch back to Labor but it isn’t looking particularly promising.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Ken O’Dowd Liberal National 33,89437.9+0.8
    Zac Beers Labor 25,62828.6-4.7
    Sharon LohseOne Nation17,53119.6+2.5
    Nathan David HarrisUnited Australia Party3,7984.2+4.3
    Jaiben Baker Greens 2,7443.1+0.3
    Marcus John HieslerConservative National Party2,4842.8+2.8
    Murray PetersonIndependent1,9942.2+2.2
    Duncan George ScottIndependent1,3841.5+0.6
    Informal5,5175.8-0.4

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Ken O’Dowd Liberal National 52,47258.7+7.6
    Zac Beers Labor 36,98541.3-7.6

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into six areas, along local government boundaries. Polling places in North Burnett and South Burnett council areas have been grouped together as ‘Burnett’. Polling places in the other five local government areas have been broken down by council area.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in five out of six areas, with a vote ranging from 53.1% in Rockhampton to 72.3% in Burnett. Labor won 52.5% in Gladstone, the most populous group of election-day booths.

    One Nation came third, with a vote ranging from 17.7% in Gladstone to 25.3% in Rockhampton.

    Voter groupON prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Gladstone17.747.513,55515.2
    Central Highlands21.665.95,9976.7
    Rockhampton25.353.15,1985.8
    Bundaberg18.458.85,0155.6
    Burnett20.172.34,8035.4
    Banana22.271.53,4413.8
    Pre-poll19.155.337,76342.2
    Other votes19.469.913,68515.3

    Election results in Flynn at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the One Nation.

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    56 COMMENTS

    1. While the sample you provided Laine is a pre-poll and one would expect the LNP to do better on pre-poll than on the day vote. It must be worrying for Labor if they can’t win a Labor town like Gladstone easily. It is Pre-poll but Labor needs as many votes as possible in these parts to be competitive in this seat.

      Still expecting an LNP retain but wouldn’t rule out the outside chance of an upset victory for One Nation for the Callide by-election

    2. I’m told the theory on this seat is that 5% or so drop from. One Natio goes more to Labor than LNP and then the swing from LNP to Labor gives them a primary vote lead before preferences with the flow of preferences being better than last time for Labor. Both sides sew acutely aware of this and trying not to antagonise the minor party voters and the mining town voters

    3. @ LNP Insider Yeah that is the general idea in these seats up the coast of QLD – Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson especially so. I think it applies to Hinkler and Herbert as well although less so for mining and instead other reasons more commonplace in those two. The independent in Hinkler throws me off a little but I am quite interested to watch it on election night as the One Nation vote in Hervey Bay actually seemed to help Labor in 2020 and a similar situation could unfold in the federal election. Depends a lot on the primary vote order though.

      As for Flynn I haven’t been out much recently but Boyce was campaigning with Joyce recently. Labor has to up their margins in Gladstone and Gracemere and just knock off a point or two in Emerald and they might have a path to defeating him. Might adjust my prediction slightly and say an LNP win of something like a 2-5% margin.

      Labor seems to care more about the traditional electorates they lost by huge margins in 2019 rather than seats in Brisbane. That could very well bite them or be in their favor and just push them over the line. What I think will happen in all honesty is that these seats (Flynn, Capricornia, Dawson, Herbert, etc) will hold for the LNP but some of the Brisbane divisions like Petrie and Bonner will swing to Labor and end up close but hold for the LNP as well, and they’ll regret having focused their campaign on the coal country seats.

    4. Going to start doing predictions for seats before the big day on Saturday.

      LNP retain with a 2-3% swing to Labor.

      Labor had higher hopes weeks ago but they have since pulled away and are focusing mainly on Brisbane and Leichhardt, and are trying to defend their own seats.

      Labor would have a shot here if they have Jim Chalmers as leader and they move away from their anti-coal stance. However if coal isn’t an issue years down the road then perhaps it will just depend on other issues. But this seat is still very rich in natural resources and mining so it won’t be easy.

    5. Agree with Daniel’s assessment of Flynn. Both sides were focused on it early but both now have their attention elsewhere as its not really in play.

    6. Daniel

      If the ALP become staunchly pro-coal to get lots of votes in the coal mining regions, they instantly lose all standing in a slew of urban seats; Cooper, Wills, Ryan, Brisbane and Griffith, if not a few more in inner Melbourne, will become impossible for them to win, and eventually Sydney and Grayndler when they lose their incumbents.

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