Flynn – Australia 2022

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12 COMMENTS

  1. Today s OZ
    Labor’s candidate for the federal seat of Flynn has called for the Palaszczuk government to approve stage three of the New Acland mine expansion.

    Gladstone mayor Matt Burnett is considered one of the party’s best hopes to win a Queensland seat from the ­Coalition.

    He has joined some of his would-be colleagues, including Blair MP Shayne Neumann and Senator Anthony Chisholm, in calling for the Queensland Premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, to hasten the approval process for the mine.

  2. They still won’t win this seat. Mike Brunker couldn’t win in Burdekin despite being pro-mining, It doesn’t matter on the candidates the party itself is the problem because people usually vote on national policies rather than candidate qualities. A vote for Burnett is a vote for Albo

    The LNP will probably get a tiny swing against them 1-2% because of the retiring member plus Zach Beers being a poor Labor candidate. But I still think this stays in LNP hands and quite handsomely if you asked me.

    Labor will not flip any seats north of the sunshine coast except for Leichhardt should Entsch retire and I think he could because of his age.

  3. Daniel
    No arguments from me. There is a possibility that there will be a continuance of the coal worker /seat bile against Labor. Perhaps a further swing of say 5%. Perhaps they (still) might fell unheard, unseen, unnoticed etc ?.
    Labor seem to think that BS, & some tax policies , oh & a lack of comprehension (on the part of voters) were the reason the libs won…! Maybe they are right ?
    Noel Pearson could take Leichardt standing as an indie or for any party. It may very interesting to see the personal vote of Entsch crystallised.
    why do you see Zac Beers as a poor candidate ?

  4. The issue with this seat is that in 2016 Election Labor got close 1.04% margin based on a good proportion of One Nation preferences. Labor’s primary was 33%. In the 2019 election Labor’s primary was 28% and they then lost the One Nation preference flow. The questions will be for the next election:

    1. Will One Nation get 19.6%?
    2. If One Nation fall – were will the vote go?
    3. What was the incumbent’s personal vote like?
    4. Will One Nation’s preferences flow Labor or LNP – hasn’t Hanson said she likes Albanese but not Morrison?

    I suspect it will be close

  5. State MP for Callide Colin Boyce has won the LNP preselection for the seat of Flynn. I’m wondering how much risk there is in doing this with voters knowing that electing Boyce will cause a bye-election in the state seat of Callide.

    I still think the LNP will be favorites though. The regional seats in North and Central Queensland have been pretty determined to continue vote Labor state and LNP federal in recent elections. Courier Mail has reported this is one of the more vulnerable seats for the LNP though.

    “The seat is held by the LNP with an 8.7 per cent margin.

    But it is considered one of Labor’s strongest chances in Queensland at the next election, with an inflated preference flow at the last poll boosting the two-party preferred result.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/lnp-backs-colin-boyce-to-replace-the-bulldog-ken-odowd-in-flynn/news-story/837a913dca31d60e2e966d26b098448a

  6. A Callide by election could give Katter or One Nation an opportunity to win a seat from the state opposition damaging their prospects of winning state government further. It is a risky gamble and Boyce seems to be seeking opportunism

    The state LNP would benefit if Boyce stayed so if they lose this seat and possibly the election an Albanese premiership could cause the LNP to win in 2024. The coalition has not won a QLD state election while the federal government was also the coalition since 1980.

    Still no change from my prediction of an LNP hold though

  7. Boyce will have to resign before the close of nominations, as it is prohibited to be a member of state parliament and a candidate for federal parliament simultaneously. So there will be a Callide by-election anyway.

  8. Would Boyce sit with the Nationals or Liberals if elected? I can’t see him supporting Barnaby Joyce.

  9. Daniel
    Boyce will sit with the Nationals. Better chances for ministerial advancement in the future. Remember St Paul’s pronouncement on equine “self interest”

    How hilarious was it to see an incredibly awkward Albo visit this week !?. Even went down a coal mine !. His message needed to be clear, direct & forceful. Acknowledging Labor’s previous failures. WELL…….!
    You have to ask why he bothered, & who is advising him ?
    After this debacle i wonder what Fitzy is saying to him about visits to the Hunter ? Oh that’s right, those two don’t communicate privately!

  10. @NQ View

    You are right he does have to resign his state seat to contest Flynn. But the way Courier Mail wrote the article with the sentence below makes it seem he like doesn’t have to.

    “It will cause a by-election in his current state seat of Callide if he wins at the next Federal election.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/lnp-backs-colin-boyce-to-replace-the-bulldog-ken-odowd-in-flynn/news-story/837a913dca31d60e2e966d26b098448a

    @Daniel

    Boyce will seat with the Nationals. That’s what would have been the agreement to contest the pre-selection. He won’t change whether he like’s Barnaby Joyce or not. There would be even Liberals reluctant to accept Boyce in the Liberals because the instability it would cause in the LNP.

    I also remember reading it was reported Boyce was dissatisfied with his role in state politics not receiving a shadow portfolio which was part of the reason behind him defecting to federal politics.

  11. “BJA from Ryan October 3, 2021 at 2:49 pm
    I really think all that will happen in QLD is a straight swap of Flynn & Lilley.

    Will have to look elsewhere for any change to happen on election night.”

    This is a mystifying prediction. Instinctively Flynn appears to be trending strongly towards the LNP. Surely Labor’s continuing confusion (if not duplicity) toward mining can’t be ignored. It would be surprising to see even a reduction in the 8.7 % margin

  12. Share scepticism about Labor’s chances here. But it has swung much less relative to state than Capricornia or Dawson & maybe more of a Labor vote potential in Gladstone? Worth a try but still a long shot.

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