Flinders – Australia 2022

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  1. I was confident initially that hunt would hold, however with an older population & his failure to act of getting the Covid vaccines this could case him some serious trouble.

  2. much higher vote 64% who voted other than on the day……. dont think there is a change in the Liberal vote in their favour due to changing demographics…….. but since 1984 when Dunkley was created….. this area has been more liberal than the 1983 flinders….. never the less at the state election with landslides some of the seats in this area have been alp held

  3. Definitely some long term trends against the Liberals here. You have both the more environmentally & socially conscious (wealthy) costal & rural towns that have been trending against the Coalition (places like Somers, Balnarring) which have seen long term decline in the Liberal 2PP. This trend is also seen on the Bass Coast side & the Surf Coast side. But the problem for Labor is that they haven’t always been the beneficiaries of this – with large chunks of that Liberal decline going to the Greens or Independents (Banks did well in these areas in 19’).

    And the other factor in Flinders is the growing population of the larger towns which have become more suburban and are now much more closer (Places like Somerville, Rosebud, Mornington). Although the swings are smaller than the costal towns more of the gains have gone to Labor.

    The only two towns that have trended against Labor on a 2PP basis since 2001 are the more “working class” areas – Hasting & Crib Point – but only then it’s by a point or two.

    Nevertheless I expect Hunt to hold on – he is a well known and usually quite visible local member – probably with a swing against him of a similar nature to 2019 (2-3%). Labor would need to dent Hunt’s large advantage with pre-polls (2PP Hunt 57.9%) and postal/others (2PP Hunt 59.8%) to have a good chance.

  4. Voices of the Mornington Peninsula are very active locally in their campaign to take out Greg Hunt. It sounds like they have a very good candidate lined up, which would make Hunt worried. Expect the Liberals to hold this seat given the big margin they are starting with, but Scott Morrison has done his best to alienate Victorians so you never know if a big state-wide swing is on.

  5. It is not outside the realms of possibility that Greg Hunt might pull the pin and retire should the Coalitions prospects not be looking good in the New Year – and he doesn’t fancy another spell in opposition. And after the last two years, the man must be exhausted.
    On the other hand, he might stick around if he has ambitions for the leadership post a Scomo defeat. And beyond Josh Frydenburg, there would not be a viable alternative – this being on the assumption that Peter Dutton would be electorally unpalatable in any jurisdiction south of the Kedron Brook.

  6. Rumours firming up that Greg Hunt is retiring, with the frontrunner to replace him being long-term political staffer Zoe McKenzie. Apparently McKenzie has recently moved to the area (just renting, of course) and out on the board of the Liberal front the Committee for Mornington Peninsula to boost her local credentials. McKenzie lost to Katie Allen in the preselection for Higgins in 2019 and clearly sees Flinders as her best chance. Despite a backlash from some in the party against a swing-in candidate, McKenzie might limit some of the large protest vote that was expected against Greg Hunt.

    But with two strong candidates for the ‘voices of’ and Scomo’s unpopularity in Victoria, this seat is still in play.

  7. Rumours are true I guess. Will there be a by election? Probably best for the Libs to hold one immediately if so and catch Labor/Voices napping, but with the number of sitting days left, I suppose hunt might as well sit tight and collect his parliamentary salary for a few more months

  8. FL
    All the reports are that Greg Hunt will retire at the election – so no by election unless he falls under an actual bus!! Of course, if there was a by election, it could be history repeating itself. It was the Libs victory in the 1982 Flinders By election that gave Malcolm Fraser the misguided confidence to go early in March 1983.

  9. The ‘voices of’ movement have supposedly chosen their candidate from a super strong field of options. The target here now becomes Scott Morrison rather than Greg Hunt, and Scomo is more unpopular in Victoria than people realise. Still hard to see Libs losing Flinders but the contest is on and local Libs getting very sensitive about whether they’ll get away with another non-local candidate.

  10. With the retirement of Greg Hunt this seat should be retained by the LNP with a small swing against them. I also reckon in the next redistributions Mount Eliza will be moved in this seat which will pull this seat out of marginal territory.

  11. @Bob
    Moving Mount Eliza into Flinders would also pull Dunkley out of marginal territory, and Dunkley is a much more pivotal seat than Flinders

  12. Adam,
    Even with Mount Eliza moved out Dunkley that it covers the state swing seats of Frankston & almost all of Carrum. The seat would still have a chance of being won by the LNP with it being a lot harder though.

  13. Bob and Adam, Dunkley is far more marginal and strategic than Flinders. But if Mount Eliza was ever moved out of Dunkley (unlikely in my view), the Liberals would struggle to win a single booth in the entire Dunkley electorate. Dunkley would become a very safe Labor seat and Flinders would become a very safe Liberal seat.

  14. My reasoning for Mount Eliza being moved is that it would have the entire Mornington Peninsula council area united in one seat, however if the population increases in this seat it would most likely shrink.

  15. Last time, Labor won Flinders was in 1983 and back then Frankston was in the seat (just before Dunkley was created) so unless its going to be a landslide it will be unlikely that Labor wins here. If Victoria is going to loose a seat at the next redistribution (with Hotham potentially abolished). Then both Flinders and Dunkley will need to grow. My guess is that is that Dunkley may regain Mornington while Flinders could pick up the Casey/Cardinia Coast such as Tooradin/Koo Wee Rup etc which will make it even more safe Liberal. The reason is that Bruce may need to move West to take more of Springvale/Noble Park and Keysborough and consequently Holt and La Trobe will need to move into the Suburban Casey area (Narre Warren/Berwick). Both the latter two seats are rapidly growing, unlike Flinders and Dunkley. Dunkley without Mt Eliza in my view will be Labor leaning but as we see in Issacs the beachside suburbs such as Seaford will likely gentrify (although Frankston North/Karingal and Carrum Downs is working class). Langwarrin is always marginal and is often a bellwether. The Liberals will win the Frankston South booths in any case.


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